Interfund Transfer 4/4/ for 4/5/05

[tsptalk]

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This is the type of open I was looking for last week to get fully invested. Oh well. I'll use it to move more into the C and S funds. I am making an interfund transfer this morning going 60% C, 40% S fund. It will be effective 4/5 (or COB 4/4). I explainedmorein today's market comments.

We're seeing what the"emotional money" is doing in the first hour.I'll be very anxious to see what the "smart money" does in the last halfhour or so.

 

[riskybusiness]

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Interfund transfer COB 4/4 made (100%G). I'm waiting for my .01 to kick in so I canstop losing my retirement money. Right now I might as well put it in the savings bank. I'll wait fora week...possibly two for the supposed "rally" to begin. I'm not seeing many good signs except that stocks have probably been oversold. I don't think we've bottomed out quite yet.Interest rates are expected to continue to goup, perhaps oil prices will be forgotten soon as winter is basically overwith now. Thereafter I will likely go with a moderate allocationto stocks. I just don't have a good feeling about the economy right now. Sounds rather basic but it's how I feel. In addition most of the rallies I have seen this year have been really short term. There isn't much cause for an extended rally from what I can see. So at this time I plan to sit on the sidelines for a short while.

 

[Spaf]

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Risky.........Tom........ Yea where is the "smart money"?

The G-fund is, is very comfortable! Maybe, by the P-SAR (on the S&P) there is a curve upward? The energy horseman has been on a rampage! Is he gone? I don't think so!

Dave did a risk vs rewards profile:

The risk/reward equation is illuminating. If the market goes up 10% on the year and you are 40% in the G-fund which pays 5%, you net (.4x5 + .6x10) = 8%. If the market goes down 10%, you net (.4x5 - .6x10) = -4%. You get 80% of the potential gain but avoid 60% of the potential loss.

If 60G then it works out to (.6x5 + .4x10) = 7%; or (.6x5 - .4x10) = -1%. You get 70% of the gain and avoid 90% of the loss.

[Thanks Dave!]

If the current technical data suggest a possible change in market direction (possible). Then to be on the safe side less than 40% should be in stocks for those with a near retirement date??????


Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[tsptalk]

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I know this sentiment thing is a very tough thing to act upon. Sentiment is very bearish at bottoms. You guys are making good cases but that is the kind of talk that you hear just before a rally. We may very well go down lower over the next few months but I have to trust my indicators and anticipate some short term strength soon. The big drop may come just as we get comfortable with a newrally. When we are singing a morebullish tune. If oil continues to shoot up, all bets could be off however.

Also, as Spaf says, if you are retiring soon, you may not want to play my games. Better safe than sorry.

Just my opinion. I don't recommend anyone do what I do but you are welcome to watch . The market really works your emotions over.

Good luck!
Tom

 

[Rod]

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Hey Tom, your "Comment Editor" ishere again...

You may want to change the following:

That's all for today. Currently 60% C, 40% I fund. See you tomorrow.

_________________

Aren't you 60C and 40S?

 

[tsptalk]

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Got it! Thanks Rod. You may have to refresh the page to seethe change.

 

[Spaf]

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Without some coffee in the morning

sometimes I can't even find the keyboard, much less see the letters!

Whats happening with the market? It isn't red this morning!

 

[mlk_man]

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Spaf wrote:

Without some coffee in the morning

sometimes I can't even find the keyboard, much less see the letters!

Whats happening with the market? It isn't red this morning!

Not yet......................

 

[Mike]

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Since I'm not going to pay any attention to the market for the remainder of the week, it's bound to take off.

 

[mlk_man]

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Mike wrote:

Since I'm not going to pay any attention to the market for the remainder of the week, it's bound to take off.

You may not pay attention to it, but I bet you think about it...............:shock:

 

[Rod]

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Yeah, since I lightened up more in (I) it's going to make some pennies today.

Always seems to happen that way. But hey,those gains and then somewill go out the windowthis week as the dollar gains strength.

God Bless:^

 

[CSI]

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The markets have gone up the last two days on less volumn. One positive today compared to yesterday, we did not sell off at the close. The one thing that worries me the most is, there is a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines that is waiting to be invested somewhere. I'm not sure what it is waiting on,I hope not a lower low, but rather for earning reports to start coming in. If earnings are good I think we will see some of the side lined money move in, but if bad or netural we may test recent lows again before we see any movement of this money.

 

[tennisguy]

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How high of a percentage does the c and s fund have to be in order for you to switch to the I fund the next day?

Would this be a good day?

Thanks

Tennisguy

 

[tsptalk]

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Here is the old post (early 2004) of the strategy. I haven't used it much lately because of inconsistent results... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum6/2.html

 

[CSI]

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Since you do not know how the US markets will finish the day by the 12 eastern time limit to make a switch it is hard to answer your question. Generally, if I think the US markets will finish the day up and the dollar will be down is when I try to time getting into the I fund and sometimes if just the dollar will be down. I wish there were a more scientific method, but there is not. I read a lot of comments and look at charts and try as best I can to make an educated guess. If you invest in the market for any period of time, you will realize that bucking what everyone else is saying and getting a little lucky generally will pay off, but in the end, it is still gambling. If you are one not to take chances then I would put 20% in each fund and sleep good at night and do not even look at what the market does as history has proven that being invested in stocks pays better dividends than most other investments over the long run.

 

[Spaf]

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tennisguy wrote:

How high of a percentage does the c and s fund have to be in order for you to switch to the I fund the next day?

Would this be a good day?

Thanks

Tennisguy

I wouldn't recommend a %. Rather, read the charts: trends, RSI, CMF, MACD, and P-SAR. This will give multiple indicators. Then check the Fundamentals (economics). The technicals + fundamentals will give the best picture. And always check the weekly stats, cause the daily stats can cometimes lose the big picture.

Yes today should be a good day! However we have the horsemen of rates, inflation, and energy that can spoil any day. Sorry, none of us have a crystal ball,wish we did, but then again that would take all the fun out of it!

Rgds Spaf

 

[mlk_man]

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Spaf wrote:

Yes today should be a good day! However we have the horsemen of rates, inflation, and energy that can spoil any day. Sorry, none of us have a crystal ball,wish we did, but then again that would take all the fun out of it!

Rgds Spaf

Thanks for jinxing it Spaf, I'm in the G today.................:^

 

[Spaf]

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What u doing there ? :?

 

[tennisguy]

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Thanks guys. Still at the beginning of the learning curve, but I am reading allot of charts and news. Still a very big amateur though.

I figurethis is the time I can makemistakes (and hopefully learn from my mistakes)because 1 percent representsless then 20 dollars. I am going to give it a year. See if I can do better then a buy and hold person.

Even if I am a little bit lower then a buy and hold method I have learnedallot since I started my TSP account. The benefits outweigh the negatives. I know what’s going on in different countries, what’s happing to our dollar and economy news. At the very least I am more educated then the average Joe about what is going on. Before I just knew the top headline of the newspaper and thats it. Just my .02 cents.

Hope today stays green:^

Tennisguy

 

[mlk_man]

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Spaf wrote:

What u doing there ? :?

Needed a days rest! :shock: