Interfund Transfer 1/07 for 1/10/05

[tsptalk]

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I am making an interfund transfer Friday morning which will take effect Monday morning. The new allocation will be 50% C, 25% S and 25% I fund.

A change in investor sentimentis the main reason. For more info, please take a look at today's market comments (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html) / (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_1_7_05.html) for more details.

One more flat to down day would be nice today.Hold the "potential" rally until next week.

Thanks,
Tom

 

[Rod]

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tsptalk wrote:

One more flat to down day would be nice today.Hold the "potential" rally until next week.

No it wouldn't, because I'm 100(S)!

 

[Guest]

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Tom,

It will be interesting to see how the market is affected by the jobs report. My guess is that it will be a disappointing figure but that the market still won't be hit that hard by the news as the disappointment is, to some extent, alreadyin the market. However, it could negatively affect the dollar today, which has been quite bullish short term.

I still disagree with your emphasis on C over S for January...and at least yesterday's resultsbear this out.However, I'm remaining 100% I for now. If the dollar mini-rally continues next week, I'll move to 50% I 50% S. IMHO, starting in March we should begin to see the C fund move ahead of the S and remain ahead thru the year. However, I still feel that, long term, the dollar remains ina bear market. That translates into the I fund continuing tooutperform either the C or Sfund thisyear (assuming, of course, that we don't fall back into a worldwide bear market).

 

[tsptalk]

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The jobs report is tricky. It can't be too good or too bad. If jobs rise too fast, the Fed will need to raise ineterest rates faster. If too slow, then the economy appears to be slowing.

Looks like we got a mixed bag. Jobs were lower than estimated by about 18,000 but they revisedNovember's numbers higher by 25,000.

 

[ou81200]

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Tom---

Are you concerned about the way the dollar has done lately? I would think the I fund would not be safe right now.



Comments?

 

[tsptalk]

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The dollar hashad a pretty good bounce and may come down a bit. I'm not too worried about it flying away. I don't mind risking 25% of my account in the I fund right now with it being down 2.5% in the last few days.

 

[neirbod]

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The dollar fell slightly against the euro immediately after the job report. Could be that the job report was ideal for those invested both in domestic and foreign stocks. It was strong enough to lift the C and S funds (at least for now), but weak enough that the dollar is sliding.

 

[Mike]

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Well, that report didn't do much either way -too small a job increase tocreate inflation fears, too large to be a major disappointment (especially with upward revisions in previous months).

Guess it's just time to sit tight and see what happens.

 

[neirbod]

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Well, I take back what I said earlier. Looks like the jobs report was just good enough to rally the dollar but weak enough not to spark a rally. Boy, I am just batting 0.000 so far this year.

Can't we just forget the past few days and start 2005 next week?

 

[Wheels]

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Amen to that brother.

Dave

 

[LIG]

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Well Tom, I didn't follow you into G earlier this week...bad move on my part:'. Instead, I moved from 50% C, 50 % S; to 100% C . I see you're moving out again.

I read a few days back that that some in the group feel thatthe 2004 steam will likely leak fromthe S andthatthe C will dominate this year. Did I understand that correctly? Any thoughts in that area?

 

[cowboy]

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Come on roll an I! I fund down all week hoping Monday or Tuesday I performs and goes up! I have done okay so far this year as I side stepped a big down market by being F coming out ofthe New Year.The market can be very humbling when you see all of your December gains disappear.

 

[ou81200]

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FWIW---

I went from 50% C, 50% S to 100% G to be effective Monday. Thought I would get that one penny from the G fund before deciding where to put the money for next week.

This week has been interesting to say the least.

 

[pyriel]

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cowboy wrote:

Come on roll an I! I fund down all week hoping Monday or Tuesday I performs and goes up! I have done okay so far this year as I side stepped a big down market by being F coming out ofthe New Year.The market can be very humbling when you see all of your December gains disappear.

I hope you are right Cowboy. I sure didn't go 100I just so I can score a date with Saraho.

 

[Skip]

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I still don't see any strength lower lows in c and f and a lower high in the I fund....

I'm still 100%G Until I see something positive....

Skip

 

[tsptalk]

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LIG wrote:

I read a few days back that that some in the group feel thatthe 2004 steam will likely leak fromthe S andthatthe C will dominate this year. Did I understand that correctly? Any thoughts in that area?

That is correct. I'm thinking we will start seeing, and we have seen that this year already, a rotation to the larger caps. It could take months to fully happen, but the rising interest rates will eventuallyturn folks away from the smaller companies and into the more stable larger ones.

 

[coolhand]

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tsptalk wrote:

One more flat to down day would be nice today.Hold the "potential" rally until next week.

That's what I'm hoping. Great comments this morning Tom. The puzzle pieces are slowing coming together!

 

[teknobucks]

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hope we pop out of this darn rutsoon....

http://tinyurl.com/656r5





semis had a bit of strenght today....usually lead the naz

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SMH

 

[tsptalk]

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coolhand wrote:

Great comments this morning Tom. The puzzle pieces are slowing coming together!

Thanks. I sure hope so.

 

[Mike]

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pyriel wrote:

cowboy wrote:

Come on roll an I! I fund down all week hoping Monday or Tuesday I performs and goes up! I have done okay so far this year as I side stepped a big down market by being F coming out ofthe New Year.The market can be very humbling when you see all of your December gains disappear.

I hope you are right Cowboy. I sure didn't go 100I just so I can score a date with Saraho.

I'd go 100I to score a date with her. :^