Interests rates, bonds, and the F fund

Behavior of the F(AGG) Fund

  • Neutral

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  • Bullish

    Votes: 0 0.0%

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    1

Soldat

Member
imported post

With interest rate hike the AGG bonds should have dropped more. We have inflation under control but are these rate hikes slowing our economic growth? I feel that, yes, they are.

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Where is the F fund headed? With rate hikes possibly coming to an end, will bonds soar like an eagle? Or, just as the eagle, will they die off?

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I feel that bonds will take off, sooner than later. And if we end up to our neck in the deep end of recession, the feds will even lower the rates. What then, bonds at an alltime high? But how high can they go? AGG 106? 110? Who knows.

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All we know is the past, and hindsight is 20/20 (to quote one of the most overused phrases). All I know is what the charts indicate, as well as a few market indications that we are set up to be knocked down. While the market pukes from running too far, too fast, I will hide in G securities and bonds. Look at the data, what does it indicate? Did we recover from a downtrend during early November 2005? Are we seeing a possible uptrend? It sure seems so.

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Good luck and the game is on! No guts no glory, either lead, follow, or GET OUT OF THE WAY.

-Rob
 
imported post

If the rate hikes come to an end as expected, bond prices won't be suppressed like they have been. Also, the last time the yield curve inverted, bonds did well afterwards - and much better than equities.

With the consensus wall street forecast of a 7% market rise next year, I'd say bonds have a shot at matching that performance. If the economy hits the skids, bonds could certainly outperform the market.

In any case, I expect the F fund to outperform the G at long last. Every dog has his day. :)[/b]
 
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