The sell signal came today for those Japanese shares I mentioned in my account talk. The Fed says they may continue to purchase MBS and prop the market up, but Japan cannot play that game and neither can Europe. Both of their debt levels are high with Japan being insurmountable.
I'm starting become bearish here as the complacency amongst investors rises to out of control levels. VIX below 20? Are you for real? How many people said they'd sell when it went below 30? 25? 20? Most of those people are holding on and looking for higher prices. This morning some analyst said Google was a strong buy at yesterday's close yet it experiences it's first major distribution day today from oversold levels since the rally began.
As I said in late 2009, I unloaded a few mutual funds before year end, but I would let the commodities ride. However, that day to unload them came today. I sold nearly 3/4 of my portfolio today to include Japan and various commodity sector stocks which have pulled way too far ahead of the market. What a great ride it's been though. The only loss was Japan, which turned out to be around 4%, and meanwhile two of my holdings were up 310% and 332% respectively with the majority of the shares qualifying for LT cap gains. The commodity bull which I have mentioned numerous times in The Case For Hard Assets, CGA Breakout, and The Next Cyclical Bull, is either going parabolic or ready to go parabolic and I'm deciding to lock in some nice gains while not having to worry about picking a top.
It's a moment I've been waiting for for a long time and today I just felt the time was right to sell. Every analyst is either calling for a big year or a flat year and it's getting harder to find any bears out there besides the regular perma-bears. Has anybody really seen any bearish forecasts? Call buying is off the hook with the new year as well, surely not a bullish sign. We now have folks piling into the inflation bandwagon which I based my investment strategy around starting in October 2008. Buy the rumor, sell the news, because the Fed is finally acknowledging some signs of inflation in the market.
TSP wise, I'm on the tracker with 45% of my 401K in the G Fund. I don't see a reason to raise my cash level at this point because the rally probably has a bit further to go and this is account is intended to catch the big idea trends. Big idea, market is in an uptrend.
I continue to believe that this rally is a gift to investors who got hammered in the big bear of 2008 and you're either riding the train or you're not. If you're riding it, just be sure to hop off before the buy programs shut down. Don't forget, the good news always seems to come out at tops.
I'm starting become bearish here as the complacency amongst investors rises to out of control levels. VIX below 20? Are you for real? How many people said they'd sell when it went below 30? 25? 20? Most of those people are holding on and looking for higher prices. This morning some analyst said Google was a strong buy at yesterday's close yet it experiences it's first major distribution day today from oversold levels since the rally began.
As I said in late 2009, I unloaded a few mutual funds before year end, but I would let the commodities ride. However, that day to unload them came today. I sold nearly 3/4 of my portfolio today to include Japan and various commodity sector stocks which have pulled way too far ahead of the market. What a great ride it's been though. The only loss was Japan, which turned out to be around 4%, and meanwhile two of my holdings were up 310% and 332% respectively with the majority of the shares qualifying for LT cap gains. The commodity bull which I have mentioned numerous times in The Case For Hard Assets, CGA Breakout, and The Next Cyclical Bull, is either going parabolic or ready to go parabolic and I'm deciding to lock in some nice gains while not having to worry about picking a top.
It's a moment I've been waiting for for a long time and today I just felt the time was right to sell. Every analyst is either calling for a big year or a flat year and it's getting harder to find any bears out there besides the regular perma-bears. Has anybody really seen any bearish forecasts? Call buying is off the hook with the new year as well, surely not a bullish sign. We now have folks piling into the inflation bandwagon which I based my investment strategy around starting in October 2008. Buy the rumor, sell the news, because the Fed is finally acknowledging some signs of inflation in the market.
TSP wise, I'm on the tracker with 45% of my 401K in the G Fund. I don't see a reason to raise my cash level at this point because the rally probably has a bit further to go and this is account is intended to catch the big idea trends. Big idea, market is in an uptrend.
I continue to believe that this rally is a gift to investors who got hammered in the big bear of 2008 and you're either riding the train or you're not. If you're riding it, just be sure to hop off before the buy programs shut down. Don't forget, the good news always seems to come out at tops.
