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imported post
grammer corrections!!
"add" should be "ad"
"there" should be "their"
sorry for the typos
grammer corrections!!
"add" should be "ad"
"there" should be "their"
sorry for the typos
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imported post
Generally speaking, rising interest rates are a bearish indicator for stocks, however in this case two things come to mind that makes me think this is an exception. For one, rising interest rates means (smart) money will be coming out of bonds. Where are they going to put that money now? In a money market fund earning 4%? I dont think so. Why be scared of the market? Heck, the nasdaq was 4700, 4 years ago! Talk about a buying opportunity!
Second, thought rates may be rising, its still awefully cheap for business to borrow money right now with rates as low as they are. Maybe, the rising rates will make them think, if they're ever going to invest (leverage money) in their business, now's the time to do it before it becomes too expensive to borrow a few years down the road. If rates were already, say 9%, and rising, then we might have a different story, but we dont.
I think your indicator will be proven wrong at least in the short term (1 year).
I'm currently 40%C, 40%S, 20%I.
Generally speaking, rising interest rates are a bearish indicator for stocks, however in this case two things come to mind that makes me think this is an exception. For one, rising interest rates means (smart) money will be coming out of bonds. Where are they going to put that money now? In a money market fund earning 4%? I dont think so. Why be scared of the market? Heck, the nasdaq was 4700, 4 years ago! Talk about a buying opportunity!
Second, thought rates may be rising, its still awefully cheap for business to borrow money right now with rates as low as they are. Maybe, the rising rates will make them think, if they're ever going to invest (leverage money) in their business, now's the time to do it before it becomes too expensive to borrow a few years down the road. If rates were already, say 9%, and rising, then we might have a different story, but we dont.
I think your indicator will be proven wrong at least in the short term (1 year).
I'm currently 40%C, 40%S, 20%I.
imported post
Here's the problem with that site... They've only been in operation since June 2001. There are hundreds of fund managers out there that have posted very good performance for just a 3 year time period. With the hindsight of the market back to 1989, as they state, it really wouldnt be all that difficult to find a model that would 1. give good historical performance having the full advantage of hindsight 2...... for the same model to perform ok for just 3 years since.
When they get 5-10 years of solid, superior performance, i might start to pay attention. Up till now though - i'm not particularily impressed.
Here's the problem with that site... They've only been in operation since June 2001. There are hundreds of fund managers out there that have posted very good performance for just a 3 year time period. With the hindsight of the market back to 1989, as they state, it really wouldnt be all that difficult to find a model that would 1. give good historical performance having the full advantage of hindsight 2...... for the same model to perform ok for just 3 years since.
When they get 5-10 years of solid, superior performance, i might start to pay attention. Up till now though - i'm not particularily impressed.
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Welcome to the board. Out of curiosity, why does the I fund look good? By the way, you have done all right being in G fund the past month. I have been for three weeks myself. Welcome.
Joel
Welcome to the board. Out of curiosity, why does the I fund look good? By the way, you have done all right being in G fund the past month. I have been for three weeks myself. Welcome.
Joel
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mailbagman wrote:
The dollar hit the bottom of its rising trend channel before a small rebound. If the dollar stays in the trend channel, it should start to rise which may hurtthe I fund at least temporarily. I was thinking of putting this in Monday's comments but since you brought it up...
Chart provided courtesy of http://www.decisionpoint.com
mailbagman wrote:
The I fund is starting to look good to me. Maybe next week will be a good time to get into it. I'm 100% G fund for the past month.
The dollar hit the bottom of its rising trend channel before a small rebound. If the dollar stays in the trend channel, it should start to rise which may hurtthe I fund at least temporarily. I was thinking of putting this in Monday's comments but since you brought it up...
Chart provided courtesy of http://www.decisionpoint.com
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jcnh wrote:
For the record, I don't want toendorse or encourage the sharing ofa service so please handle that via email ifyou decide to do that.
Thanks!
Tom
jcnh wrote:
Hi JC. Thanks for joining us. I believe only jgpalmerddshas that service. I've been curious myself if they are still on the 4/29 "sell" signal. I was getting very bullish at that same time and we were both very interested in how things would pan out.
For the record, I don't want toendorse or encourage the sharing ofa service so please handle that via email ifyou decide to do that.
Thanks!
Tom
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I tried Timingcube.com recently for 3 weeks, got out and got a refund. Just not worth $29.95 a month to me. There record of 13.9% earnings per year for the S & P 500 is not very impressive to me. If you go to www.tspmoney.com and follow the 3-way moving average charts they offer, for $18 a month, you'll get the same jist but probably better. You can use the charts for free for 30 days and not be obligated to buy. Haven't reached 30 days yet but probably won't subscribe. I make up my own 3-way moving average chart. Not hard at all. Now I say this because I only have TSP funds so no margins. May be better with margins as far as I Know
As I said when I first joined here, I was only going to make about 1-2 buy-sell transactions a month, but have since changed my mind. It's more fun for me to follow it every day now. As of right now, I'm on pace for a 36% return this year. If I only followed the "big" trends, I believe I would only be about 16-18%. Only takes about 10 minutes a day to update my chart.
For what it's worth.
I tried Timingcube.com recently for 3 weeks, got out and got a refund. Just not worth $29.95 a month to me. There record of 13.9% earnings per year for the S & P 500 is not very impressive to me. If you go to www.tspmoney.com and follow the 3-way moving average charts they offer, for $18 a month, you'll get the same jist but probably better. You can use the charts for free for 30 days and not be obligated to buy. Haven't reached 30 days yet but probably won't subscribe. I make up my own 3-way moving average chart. Not hard at all. Now I say this because I only have TSP funds so no margins. May be better with margins as far as I Know
As I said when I first joined here, I was only going to make about 1-2 buy-sell transactions a month, but have since changed my mind. It's more fun for me to follow it every day now. As of right now, I'm on pace for a 36% return this year. If I only followed the "big" trends, I believe I would only be about 16-18%. Only takes about 10 minutes a day to update my chart.
For what it's worth.
G
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Frizz B. wrote:
Frizz B. wrote:
My chart is only 3 days old so it's not really a "chart", LOL Basically, and they explain this on www.tspmoney.com, you take your 5-day average of any particular fund, your 21-day average, and your 63-day average. When your 5-day average dips below your 21 and/or 63 day average, your suppose to sell, and when it comes back over, you buy. Now you'll make money, but you'll miss opportunites to make more because you'll miss the "high" peaks and the "low" peaks. Right now I'm looking to get in and out when I see a lateral or slight up and down swing either way. Just another way of keeping track of trends. I'll show my chart when I get about 30days in so I'll have something to show.
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My original system, which still works great if you only want to trade a few times a year, is to take a 63-day average of any particular fund and subtract .20 from it. This is your "buy" point. Then take your 63-day average and add.30 to it. This is your "sell" point. You'll always make money and have fewer "bad" days. Just make sure you adjust your 63-day average every day. You'll always get .5 profit eventully. 4 to 5 times a year and your up roughly16- 20% for the year, depending on fund price, with minimal risk.
If you take the average for the passed 63 days, itis C:12.0, S: 13..1, and I : 13.4. If you take these prices, then the "sell" signal would of been, June 7th with C at 12.03, S at 13.06, and I at 13.5. As you can see, the S didn't quite make it to the high limit. That's because of the fear of rising interest rates like Tom said. That's why it might be good to take into account all 3 funds. Works great for the one day delay we have. because sometimes it will go a little higher the next day. May also go lower, but you won't lose as much as if you had stayed in a little longer and prices continue to drop.
Now taking this all into account, the next "buy" signal would be when the funds hit C: 11.56, S:12.66, and I:12.96. The prices may fall further, remember 2001 and 2002?, so you might want to set a lower cut-off for yourself where u get out and stay out till they start to rise again, or your 63-day average adusts accordingly. Make any sense?
I'm trading a little more aggressively right now, but I do keep track of this system.
PS- just saw on yahoofinance.com that the S&P vs fair value is +4.3, come on C fund!!
My original system, which still works great if you only want to trade a few times a year, is to take a 63-day average of any particular fund and subtract .20 from it. This is your "buy" point. Then take your 63-day average and add.30 to it. This is your "sell" point. You'll always make money and have fewer "bad" days. Just make sure you adjust your 63-day average every day. You'll always get .5 profit eventully. 4 to 5 times a year and your up roughly16- 20% for the year, depending on fund price, with minimal risk.
If you take the average for the passed 63 days, itis C:12.0, S: 13..1, and I : 13.4. If you take these prices, then the "sell" signal would of been, June 7th with C at 12.03, S at 13.06, and I at 13.5. As you can see, the S didn't quite make it to the high limit. That's because of the fear of rising interest rates like Tom said. That's why it might be good to take into account all 3 funds. Works great for the one day delay we have. because sometimes it will go a little higher the next day. May also go lower, but you won't lose as much as if you had stayed in a little longer and prices continue to drop.
Now taking this all into account, the next "buy" signal would be when the funds hit C: 11.56, S:12.66, and I:12.96. The prices may fall further, remember 2001 and 2002?, so you might want to set a lower cut-off for yourself where u get out and stay out till they start to rise again, or your 63-day average adusts accordingly. Make any sense?
I'm trading a little more aggressively right now, but I do keep track of this system.
PS- just saw on yahoofinance.com that the S&P vs fair value is +4.3, come on C fund!!
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mlk_man wrote:
Profit for C fund is $1.06 and I fund is $1.28 per share. So you get about 10% profit for very little effort. What do you think?
mlk_man wrote:
Just did the calculations for the year with this method, I'll give the results for the S fund: on Jan 6 you buy at 12.67, sell on Jan 26 at 11.83. On Feb 4 you buy at 13.0, on Feb 12 you sell at 13.21. On Mar 24 you buy at 12.6, on Apr 1 you sell for 13.33. On may4 you buy at 12.83, you sell on Jun 9 at 12.87. Total profit for year to date is $1.44 per share. Roughly 11% for 6-month period.
Profit for C fund is $1.06 and I fund is $1.28 per share. So you get about 10% profit for very little effort. What do you think?
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By the way, Buy and Hold for the same time frame is C: 1.5%, S: 3.25%, and I: 2.13%.
The only way you would really miss out is there is a sustained bull rally for an extended period like the latter part of 2003. To elimate this risk, keep a chart of the daily share price and when you see an extended upwards trend, get in and stay in!!:^
By the way, Buy and Hold for the same time frame is C: 1.5%, S: 3.25%, and I: 2.13%.
The only way you would really miss out is there is a sustained bull rally for an extended period like the latter part of 2003. To elimate this risk, keep a chart of the daily share price and when you see an extended upwards trend, get in and stay in!!:^
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Just went 100% G for Monday. Hope C stays up today.
With the UN approval in Iraq, does anyone see the stocks steadily going up? Wil have to watch till I'm convinced but I haven't seen any really bad signals out there.
Stock tip: I've heard tell of a massive amount of electricity producing wind-mill type structures being built in the US somewhere. Appearently they have the ability to produce as much if not more electicity than a nuclear energy complex. I've heard this may be the new alternative for nuclear powered electricity and the stock profits could prove astonding!!!
If anyone has heard of this, or knows the name of the company, please let us know.
Just went 100% G for Monday. Hope C stays up today.
With the UN approval in Iraq, does anyone see the stocks steadily going up? Wil have to watch till I'm convinced but I haven't seen any really bad signals out there.
Stock tip: I've heard tell of a massive amount of electricity producing wind-mill type structures being built in the US somewhere. Appearently they have the ability to produce as much if not more electicity than a nuclear energy complex. I've heard this may be the new alternative for nuclear powered electricity and the stock profits could prove astonding!!!
If anyone has heard of this, or knows the name of the company, please let us know.
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