Hyperinflation warnings are 'totally ridiculous,' economist and longtime bear David R

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Hyperinflation warnings are 'totally ridiculous,' economist and longtime bear David Rosenberg says

Rosenberg Research’s David Rosenberg believes runaway inflation warnings are exaggerated and deflation will eventually grip the U.S. economy.

More @ CNBC...
 
Hyperinflation warnings are 'totally ridiculous,' economist and longtime bear David Rosenberg says

Rosenberg Research’s David Rosenberg believes runaway inflation warnings are exaggerated and deflation will eventually grip the U.S. economy.

More @ CNBC...

Well I'm not as convinced as David Rosenberg on inflation easing. I don't see anything right now pointing in that direction. I only see what I can feel in my wallet. Home prices are out of line with reality (induced by a frothy stock market thanks to the Federal Reserve easy money policy and our governments non stop money printing ). Gas prices have been shooting up and food prices across the board are rising. I see inflation well beyond 2022 because of available truck drivers, China controlled US farmland redirection of food stock to their country thereby ensuring lower food supply in the USA. Chip shortage and ship docking will be continuing problems through next year as well. Things are looking quite nasty going forward. David Rosenberg may want to review the psychological effect of a pandemic on society. Look no further than the Spanish flu Pandemic which took a mental toll and at least 5 years after the pandemic to finally turn the corner on mental repercussions. We have a long way to go. It will get worse...don't believe the fly higher mentally...the wings are fixing to fall off. What happens when you have a lot of people flush with money...yeah...prices go higher on consumer demand. :sick:
 
The forcing of "clean" energy down our throats is much to blame for oil/gas prices. Nobody wants to apply for new drilling permits because they'll be destroyed by this new trend in ESG investing. Not only that, but nobody wants an activist intervention like XOM or RDS.A. The forced shutdown caused an instant stop to everything and the cost of getting closed wells going again outweighs the profits. Usually the cure to higher oil prices is high oil prices.

Long term the trend is deflation thanks to technology. All those jobs that people don't want to do anymore will just be automated. Just look around for what places are striking and they'll be on the chopping block in the next 10 years. Work done by nurses will be automated and already is happening.

https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-jo...tomation/11a31603-b66a-438c-a372-791b848436b5

Those people working in warehouses for Amazon, Walmart, Target, etc that want to unionize - they can kiss everything goodbye as soon as the companies can figure out how to get machines to pull small items like toothbrushes off the shelf. All this talk of lower paying jobs, which ANYBODY on this planet can do, trying to unionize will just seal their fate.

Kiva’s robots have taken Amazon’s random organization strategy and made it even faster. Deutsche Bank estimated in 2016 that the “click to ship” cycle—the time it takes to pick a product from the stacks, pack it, and ship it—was around 60 to 75 minutes when employees manually handled the process. With the aid of robots, the same job could be done in 15 minutes. Warehouses equipped with Kiva robots can also hold 50% more inventory than those without them.

https://www.warehouseautomation.ca/...efficient-warehouses-by-embracing-chaos-cdw84

Lennar is going to begin 3D printing homes.

... requires only three workers on-site when printing a wall system, replacing as many as 6 to 12 framers and drywall installers needed for conventional construction.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/3-d-pr...austin-as-demand-for-homes-grows-11635240601?

Thanks to California's wonderful ideas, containers were only allowed to be stacked two high at Long Beach. A twitter thread that went viral showed the insanity and now that beurocracy decided to change their mind. This will open up supply chain bottlenecks to some degree.

The city of Long Beach on Friday issued an emergency order allowing businesses to temporarily increase how high they can stack ocean containers in their lots in an effort to reduce the massive gridlock gripping the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/city-of-long-beach-allows-logistics-companies-to-stack-containers-higher

Intel seems pretty sure they're going to get government help, whether US or European, to ramp up semiconductor production.

There is bipartisan support for funding the domestic semiconductor industry, but Congress has yet to sign the check. The Senate has passed the CHIPS Act that includes $52 billion in semiconductor investment, but it has yet to pass the House.

https://www.yahoo.com/now/intel-pressures-u-government-help-000630446.html
 
Wow! Great posts and articles on automation coming. Thank you! :D

So with deflation coming, caused by advances in technology that displaces people and thus lowering money paid to people, what work/type jobs will be left to keep people fed and happy and not revolting against the Government and corporations?

Will the inflation caused by Government spending and debt outweigh and cancel out the deflation? :confused:
 
Humans will be needed to maintain any machines that do the work. Even though "clean" energy seems unlimited (just slap some solar panels on the roof or drop a windmill in a field) these things still require maintenance and innovation/refinement.

Machines haven't figured out the human touch and probably never will, hence social work, customer service will always need humans. Nobody wants to listen to a robot when they call American Airlines about lost luggage. Undesirable job, yes, but one that won't be going away.

Healthcare, social services, and teaching will always require a human touch, but much of the redundant work can be removed. Jobs that require empathy and creativity will always be in demand. The global study in remote learning had some positives, but all in all, was a failure. Below is one school district, but the story is the same everywhere.

46 percent of those attending virtual only classes are failing, compared to a 26 percent failure rate among those doing part or full time in-person classes.

https://www.wwaytv3.com/2021/03/11/...only-students-are-failing-in-columbus-county/

McKinsey did a study in 2017 on automation and it's effects on jobs.

If history is any guide, we could also expect that 8 to 9 percent of 2030 labor demand will be in new types of occupations that have not existed before.

Both analyses lead us to conclude that, with sufficient economic growth, innovation, and investment, there can be enough new job creation to offset the impact of automation.

A larger challenge will be ensuring that workers have the skills and support needed to transition to new jobs. Countries that fail to manage this transition could see rising unemployment and depressed wages.

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-i...ork-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages#part3

People will still be able to find work, but the days of graduating from high school and walking into an entry level job will greatly diminish. This is nothing we don't already know though. Think engineers, computer sciences here.

I've read some ideas about machines doing the work and then the profits are distributed evenly, but I don't like that idea. People need structure, meaning and interaction in life. What happened in 2020 was people got money for nothing and had nothing to do except attend "peaceful" protests. There has to be effort and pride on the part of the person though. Rarely is anything in life just handed to you.

Job automation should remove mundane tasks from daily life and allow individuals to focus more on what's important. Imagine if those daily reports could be removed from your daily workday how much extra time you'd have to dedicate to a project. One reason I don't like the universal "free" college is it removes the risk. When something is free, there's no desire to put the time in. We place less value on it than if we paid for it.
 
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