reading back his old posts and responses, I could tell he liked to quote from the financial websites a lot (to back up his perma bull conviction, I think). I also realized many of the so-called top market timers are journalists or if they were experts, then their market calls were below average.
below are a few samples of Birchtree's marketcalls in Oct 2007, when markets were topping, right before the 60% correction in 2008-2009.
10-09-2007, 10:03 AM #1968
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"Friday was an important day for the Transports because it broke above the resistance of the short term consolidation and closed inside its up trend channel. This is a positive element for the stock market."
http://www.stocktiming.com/monday-dailymarketupdate.htm
10-11-2007, 12:45 PM #1978
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I held my gains yesterday and actually pulled down a $2K profit. We'll add to that today. The NYSE breadth MCSUM is at +233 and is pushing yoward +500 and the higher we go the less likely we'll see multiple day pull backs in price action - we are stair stepping higher. I was looking for a Dow of 15,600 by the end of the year but I'm going to change that goal to 15,900. A 45 degree angle of ascent is indicative of a strong trend - be right and sit tight
10-11-2007, 06:42 PM #1980
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Something in the way she moves, moves me like no other. The NYAD line is close to its' previous high point and as long as breadth plurality remains in line to price there is nothing to worry about. The Dow breadth MCSUM was at +1135 so nothing dire to the downside for awhile me thinks.
10-13-2007, 06:41 PM #1988
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Think positive - Dow 15,900 by the end of year. Money flow still looks good. A 45 degree angle of ascent is indicative of a strong trend. Watch the VIX drop back to 14 when the herd steps in to buy - it'll be get me in at any price.
10-14-2007, 07:39 PM #1990
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Hessian,
You need facts not hyperbole. The nation's trade deficit narrowed in August as U.S. exports rose for a sixth consecutive month, a sign that strong demand for American goods and services may help offset troubles in the housing and credit markets. The gap between exports and imports was $10 billion narrower than in nAugust 2006. The surprising strength of exports led many economists to raise their estimates of third quartergross domestic product. They had expected exports to remain flat. The $10 billion year to year drop in the trade deficit, roughly speaking, translates into a full percentage point increase in the annual rate of GDP growth for the third quarter. Some have raised their estimate of third-quarter growth to 3.3% from 2.7%. The implication that's most important is that trade's contribution to third-quarter GDP is so large as to more than offset the negative contribution from housing. I think earnings will be a positive surprise and are not discounted in the market. Economist are keeping a close eye on consumer spending because it accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP, while net exports are 11% of the tally. So far the consumer is hanging tough. I'm inclined to stay fully invested - in this environment you can miss a really big day sitting on the Lilly Pad. Be right and sit tight.
10-15-2007, 11:29 AM #1992
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I think today I will let the market take care of itself - I'm going to go wash and wax my car. I did go back to 100% C fund this morning.
11-12-2007, 10:04 PM #2148
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Well, the first order of business should be to purchase this new book called "The Bearskinner" by Laura Amy Schlitz. Candlewick, 30 pages, $16.99.
This is a children's book for ages 5-12. It's a magnificent retelling of an obscure tale from the Brothers Grimm.
Steadygain, please don't worry about me, I've been doing this a long time and I can handle the devaluation - I haven't lost a thing. I have the opportunity to continue with DCAing until the spring. I'm very positive on the economy and the markets. There are times when one can actually be correct on the future and stll get run over by 50 million Frenchmen all going in the wrong direction. It always happens - nothing to worry about.
We are not going into a recession. Because trade deficits subtract from US gross domestic product, the lower than expected gaps in August and September indicate the US economy likely grew even faster than thought. The government, in its first estimate for third-quarter GDP, said the economy expanded at a 3.9% annual rate. Some economists think third quarter GDP growth will ultimately be revised to about 5%, though they expect a sharp slowdown in the fourth quarter. What if that doesn't happen and the GDP keeps on growing strongly in the 4th quarter - that means profits will surprise most investors - but not this one. Let's see what the producer price data and consumer price data look like this week.
below are a few samples of Birchtree's marketcalls in Oct 2007, when markets were topping, right before the 60% correction in 2008-2009.
10-09-2007, 10:03 AM #1968
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Default Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Friday was an important day for the Transports because it broke above the resistance of the short term consolidation and closed inside its up trend channel. This is a positive element for the stock market."
http://www.stocktiming.com/monday-dailymarketupdate.htm
10-11-2007, 12:45 PM #1978
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Default Re: Birchtree's account talk
I held my gains yesterday and actually pulled down a $2K profit. We'll add to that today. The NYSE breadth MCSUM is at +233 and is pushing yoward +500 and the higher we go the less likely we'll see multiple day pull backs in price action - we are stair stepping higher. I was looking for a Dow of 15,600 by the end of the year but I'm going to change that goal to 15,900. A 45 degree angle of ascent is indicative of a strong trend - be right and sit tight
10-11-2007, 06:42 PM #1980
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Default Re: Birchtree's account talk
Something in the way she moves, moves me like no other. The NYAD line is close to its' previous high point and as long as breadth plurality remains in line to price there is nothing to worry about. The Dow breadth MCSUM was at +1135 so nothing dire to the downside for awhile me thinks.
10-13-2007, 06:41 PM #1988
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Default Re: Birchtree's account talk
Think positive - Dow 15,900 by the end of year. Money flow still looks good. A 45 degree angle of ascent is indicative of a strong trend. Watch the VIX drop back to 14 when the herd steps in to buy - it'll be get me in at any price.
10-14-2007, 07:39 PM #1990
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Default Re: Birchtree's account talk
Hessian,
You need facts not hyperbole. The nation's trade deficit narrowed in August as U.S. exports rose for a sixth consecutive month, a sign that strong demand for American goods and services may help offset troubles in the housing and credit markets. The gap between exports and imports was $10 billion narrower than in nAugust 2006. The surprising strength of exports led many economists to raise their estimates of third quartergross domestic product. They had expected exports to remain flat. The $10 billion year to year drop in the trade deficit, roughly speaking, translates into a full percentage point increase in the annual rate of GDP growth for the third quarter. Some have raised their estimate of third-quarter growth to 3.3% from 2.7%. The implication that's most important is that trade's contribution to third-quarter GDP is so large as to more than offset the negative contribution from housing. I think earnings will be a positive surprise and are not discounted in the market. Economist are keeping a close eye on consumer spending because it accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP, while net exports are 11% of the tally. So far the consumer is hanging tough. I'm inclined to stay fully invested - in this environment you can miss a really big day sitting on the Lilly Pad. Be right and sit tight.
10-15-2007, 11:29 AM #1992
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Default Re: Birchtree's account talk
I think today I will let the market take care of itself - I'm going to go wash and wax my car. I did go back to 100% C fund this morning.
11-12-2007, 10:04 PM #2148
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Default Re: Birchtree's account talk
Well, the first order of business should be to purchase this new book called "The Bearskinner" by Laura Amy Schlitz. Candlewick, 30 pages, $16.99.
This is a children's book for ages 5-12. It's a magnificent retelling of an obscure tale from the Brothers Grimm.
Steadygain, please don't worry about me, I've been doing this a long time and I can handle the devaluation - I haven't lost a thing. I have the opportunity to continue with DCAing until the spring. I'm very positive on the economy and the markets. There are times when one can actually be correct on the future and stll get run over by 50 million Frenchmen all going in the wrong direction. It always happens - nothing to worry about.
We are not going into a recession. Because trade deficits subtract from US gross domestic product, the lower than expected gaps in August and September indicate the US economy likely grew even faster than thought. The government, in its first estimate for third-quarter GDP, said the economy expanded at a 3.9% annual rate. Some economists think third quarter GDP growth will ultimately be revised to about 5%, though they expect a sharp slowdown in the fourth quarter. What if that doesn't happen and the GDP keeps on growing strongly in the 4th quarter - that means profits will surprise most investors - but not this one. Let's see what the producer price data and consumer price data look like this week.
