How Far Are You From "Breaking Even"?

[Rod]

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How far are you from "breaking even" from these past few weeks of market chaos?

I am $26.58 away from "breaking even".:^

God Bless

 

[rokid]

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Just crossed from negative to positive for the year.$181.10 to the good!:^

 

[Pilgrim]

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I am still $4,600 to the red since May 1( I still use the old two statement dates per year to keep track). Did fine the first part of the year but have taken a bath along with the rest of you since. A market increase of about 2.5% will make break even. If I factor in probable G-fund performance, the market needs to go up about 5% between today and November 1 for me to have as much as I would have had if I had been all G-fund this period.

Anybody give me odds?

 

[Guest]

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Rod wrote:

How far are you from "breaking even" from these past few weeks of market chaos?

I am $26.58 away from "breaking even".:^

God Bless

Currently I'm up 12.46% for the year. However, if I sold my S fund right now, I'd still be down -2.59% since June 30th, our last high point. Buy and holders are down -6.8% since that point.

 

[CJ]

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Rod,

For this year, I'm in the green again (1.09%). Two weeks ago I pulled out and avoided the recent 5%(ish) drop. Which brings up an interesting topic.

* I don't understand the stubbornness with holding onto a sinking ship. When I see that I've made a mistake, I move to the sidelines of G, and wait for the turn. Then, buy back in at a lower price, which results in purchasing more shares than I would have been holding on to.

Comments please.

 

[Rolo]

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I am pretty much even, :{ 0.0136%


CJ wrote:

* I don't understand the stubbornness with holding onto a sinking ship.

Fear of missing gains, or fear of selling just before the turning point and having to buy back higher.

Yes, it is irrational, but it is real, and I've been pretty good with the real irrational lately. :h

Henceforth, I am heeding my own advise and sticking with the definites (buy on confirmed rallies) and selling at the first sign of a downtrend, "sure thing" (pretty much) vs. "could be".

It seems like it is hard to go wrong with trading on moving averages.

 

[bud]

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I have listened to the advice on here since April 1. Since then my total contributions have been about $3100 and I am now down about $1000 from where I was April 1...shoulda stayed in the G fund

 

[Rolo]

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hehehehe, I just read the topic as:

How Far Are You From "Breaking"?

lol

Thorazine, anyone?

 

[tsptalk]

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bud wrote:

I have listened to the advice on here since April 1. Since then my total contributions have been about $3100 and I am now down about $1000 from where I was April 1...shoulda stayed in the G fund

Shoulda is right. But it's not about the past. What are you doing now? The G fund isn't going to get it done for you in the long run unless you want to work until you are 65-70.

Those of you who were with me from the start know that back in January when I told people the market was due for several months of sideways to downward action, I took a lot of flack. I looked like a tight, conservative investor to everyone while the market was coming of a huge year (one in which I made 39% by the way). I got out too early but as we look back it would have paid to stayconservative for a longer period of time. Now I've been very bullish for a couple of months but I think I am just early again. Take my advice for what it is, my take on what my indicators are telling me. I'm no guru or economist.Blindly buying and holding a diversified account always looks better when the market goes down. But when it goes up, you have to be willing to get aggressive.

I'm certainly not proud to be down 4% at this point of the year, but if you compare it to the 39% years you can see where it pays to take a chance. You'll never have a 40, 30, 20 or even 10% year in the G fund.

Tom

 

[Rolo]

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I'll just be concerned if Tom starts handing out Kool-Aid.

 

[tsptalk]

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:l

Can I get an amen? :u

 

[Spaf]

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The TSP was created by congress.

It is part of our retirement program. It's a savings program. It has now five funds that we can invest in.

Our basic problem is that we are novices to the stock market.

The G fund is about 3% or better, the rest can be very up and down.

If used with discretion, TSP-Talk is the best and only guidance we have.

Tom did a good thing!

 

[Rod]

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bud wrote:

I have listened to the advice on here since April 1. Since then my total contributions have been about $3100 and I am now down about $1000 from where I was April 1...shoulda stayed in the G fund

How in the world did you lose32%in 4 months???:shock:

Were ya 100% I Fundthe enitre time???

 

[smine]

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So what was today.....market indecision! Days like today make me think that if you did do well Friday, as C and especially S surged, then an escape to G should naturally follow, as protection. Otherwise what was gained is again lost? After a small gain, trying to recoup, I moved to G effective today. Just trying to survive and keep what I have!

 

[JerBer]

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Good move Smine! You dodged a bullet today, unfortunately not all of us got out in time!

 

[Rod]

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JerBer wrote:

Good move Smine! You dodged a bullet today, unfortunately not all of us got out in time!

It's not much of a bullet nor much of a loss.

Of course, I'm comparing things to a couple weeks ago.

 

[smine]

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Well, I'll be glad for small favors! Small loss or large loss, I am tired of losses. I get a few highs sometimes, then retreat. I am not seeing the big huge gains we got Aug-Dec, 2003. Until then, I'll play it tigher, avoiding any loss if possible.

 

[tsptalk]

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bud wrote:

I have listened to the advice on here since April 1. Since then my total contributions have been about $3100 and I am now down about $1000 from where I was April 1...shoulda stayed in the G fund

bud -
You wrote that on August 22nd. How's your TSP account been treatingyou since? I'll bet you got your $1000 back plus.

 

[Dakota]

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I'm up about 8,000 since this time last year with no contributions. I didn't start in this project till mid summer but I've made about 4,000 since then. I pay close attention to what all ya'll say, and try to stick with what my allocations tell you. All I can say is thanks for your thoughts, charts and comments. I will be watching... you are all very informed, and you keep me reading and studying all the time.. I wish all the best of luck

 

[Guest]

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Dakota wrote:

I'm up about 8,000 since this time last year with no contributions. I didn't start in this project till mid summer but I've made about 4,000 since then. I pay close attention to what all ya'll say, and try to stick with what my allocations tell you. All I can say is thanks for your thoughts, charts and comments. I will be watching... you are all very informed, and you keep me reading and studying all the time.. I wish all the best of luck

Dakota, if you have a million dollars in your account, that's not too good. If you have 8000 in your account, that's great. I don't think we need to know dollar amounts, just percentages. Makes more since to me anyway.:^



Good luck.....