Last week we saw big gains but volume was high and that wasn't typical holiday action. On Monday volume dried up compared to last week, and the real holiday action seemed to kick in. The Dow gained 155-points, but the broader indices saw more modest gains.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) gained 0.4% on Monday and so far no pullback at the neckline resistance. The inverted head and shoulder was very clean on this chart until that three day rally. Now we have to wonder if it finished the right shoulder too quickly.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index broke above its recent short-term descending channel. It's lagging the other major indices in that respect, but the big reversal day and breakout looks promising for further gains for the normal market leader.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) remains in a downtrend in a bear market and has much to prove before I can get excited about it. Plus, we probably need to see the dollar peak and rollover before it becomes more attractive than the U.S. TSP stock funds.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Today is trading day number -2 on the Christmas Performance Chart. Although very small, it's the only day with a negative average return, and would a small loss shock any of us after what we saw over the last 4 days? The momentum is strong so the bulls have the ball, but we could see some profit taking at some point, and that's less likely on Christmas Eve (-1).
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) remains in a sideways consolidation while the 110.55 area looks to be the main resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Per www.tsp.gov: "Some financial markets will be closed on Thursday, December 25th in observance of the Christmas Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Thursday night (December 25th) will be processed Friday night (December 26th), at Friday's closing share prices."
I know Friday has also been named a holiday as well, but apparently the TSP offices will be open. If anybody has heard anything differently, please let me know. Thanks!
AutoTracker: Just a reminder that if you want to get on the 2015 AutoTracker to start the new year, make sure to login to the AutoTracker by December 31 so we know you're still around. If you're new to the AutoTracker, use the instructions on this page to get started.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
