2/14/13
The Dow saw some sharp intraday losses yesterday, but by the close it was just a 36-point decline, while the other major indices were mixed. Small caps outperformed again.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0050%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.09%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.26%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 added a point as the narrow trading ranges remains tight.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yesterday's high of 1525 (1524.69 more precisely) is basically the target I have been looking for, but of course I don't expect that exact number to the high. It is more of a general area where the intermediate-term resistance is being tested. If 1525 happens to be the high, I will tell everyone who will listen how great I am, but of course it would just be a matter of - even a broken clock being correct twice a day. It happens. If the S&P 500 hits 1550 next week, I will just shut up and never mention it again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The PMO indicator looks to be rolling over and we probably need to see a pop to the upside to avoid it giving a sell signal.
The number of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day moving average has hit a level that has led to market pauses, or even a correction, in the past.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
From sentimenTrader.com: "The chart above shows a 30-day average of the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that closed above their 50-day moving average. That figure is currently at 88%, meaning that an average of 88% of all stocks in the S&P 500 closed above their 50-day moving average during the past 30 days.
"That's remarkable. In the past 17 years, there were only 3 other times that the market managed this feat."
07/10/97 - led to a 6-month trading range
06/3/03 - led to a 3-month trading range
04/27/10 - led to an immediate correction
"There were five other dates that came close, edging above 85%, but not quite to the current extreme:"
04/7/98 - led to a 2-month trading range, then volatility
12/17/04 - led to a nearly year-long trading range
05/21/09 - led to a 30-day trading range, then rally
08/27/09 - led to a choppy but lasting rally
10/27/10 - led to a choppy month, then rally
Monday is President's Day and the markets and TSP will be closed. The days surrounding the holiday are not quite as bullish as we see with many of the other holidays.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Yesterday (Wednesday) had the best record historically, but not until next Friday will we see another day that has been positive more times than it was down.
And thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The Dow saw some sharp intraday losses yesterday, but by the close it was just a 36-point decline, while the other major indices were mixed. Small caps outperformed again.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0050%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.09%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.26%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 added a point as the narrow trading ranges remains tight.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yesterday's high of 1525 (1524.69 more precisely) is basically the target I have been looking for, but of course I don't expect that exact number to the high. It is more of a general area where the intermediate-term resistance is being tested. If 1525 happens to be the high, I will tell everyone who will listen how great I am, but of course it would just be a matter of - even a broken clock being correct twice a day. It happens. If the S&P 500 hits 1550 next week, I will just shut up and never mention it again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The PMO indicator looks to be rolling over and we probably need to see a pop to the upside to avoid it giving a sell signal.
The number of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day moving average has hit a level that has led to market pauses, or even a correction, in the past.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
From sentimenTrader.com: "The chart above shows a 30-day average of the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that closed above their 50-day moving average. That figure is currently at 88%, meaning that an average of 88% of all stocks in the S&P 500 closed above their 50-day moving average during the past 30 days.
"That's remarkable. In the past 17 years, there were only 3 other times that the market managed this feat."
07/10/97 - led to a 6-month trading range
06/3/03 - led to a 3-month trading range
04/27/10 - led to an immediate correction
"There were five other dates that came close, edging above 85%, but not quite to the current extreme:"
04/7/98 - led to a 2-month trading range, then volatility
12/17/04 - led to a nearly year-long trading range
05/21/09 - led to a 30-day trading range, then rally
08/27/09 - led to a choppy but lasting rally
10/27/10 - led to a choppy month, then rally
Monday is President's Day and the markets and TSP will be closed. The days surrounding the holiday are not quite as bullish as we see with many of the other holidays.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Yesterday (Wednesday) had the best record historically, but not until next Friday will we see another day that has been positive more times than it was down.
And thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
