Historical Unemployment

malyla said:
I'm now agreeing with all those who have said that the credit card companies will be the next crisis. Reasoning - What will all the unemployed workers do when their savings are used up? Use the credit card which, once issued, is never checked for credit worthiness again until default. This will be a delayed action, but we should be seeing something sometime in the summer (late) from these credit card companies. I did pay attention when they reported at the beginning of the year that VISA/MC had a profit for the 4th quarter of 2008. I'm concerned about the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2009 as those credit card bills are not paid. Just to be clear, this problem will occur with only 1-15% of the card holders as the rest of us do pay on time or payoff our balances. But in the financially weaken state we are in, can a company weather even a small percentage of their card holders defaulting (either through bankruptcy or just not paying)?
Click to expand...

Blow Your Credit Limit Without Spending
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bu...ow-to-Blow-Your-Credit-Limit-Without-Spending
A sign of the times.
<off-topic>
NASA may launch one tonight. I hope you are watching. Only 8 more Shuttle launches left. Then it all Russia for 5-8 years after June 2010.
 
note re-issue of credit cards: got a note from my federal credit union (Commerce) that a major retailer suffered a breach in its security system and credit card #'s may have been disclosed. So they were re-issuing cards. Due to possible snail mail problems :rolleyes: I did not receive my new card until two days before my other one was supposedly automatically turned off. So the re-issue may have been due to this problem. I don't have any details on who this retailer is. But that may have been the reason for the mysterious re-issueance of cards - maybe. In addition to a new card, the card # is different (causing havoc with some of my autopay stuff since this is my banking card). So if you got a new card AND a new number on it, that may be due to this problem.
 
Here is a video that if you haven't seen it, you need to.

It takes a half-an-hour to see the whole thing- so you may need to break it into a few parts to see it all.

This first aired in January 2008, more than a year ago. But it explains a lot of what is happening.

http://www.iousathemovie.com/

Please take a few minutes to view it.
 
Read any of that small print in the CC changes in terms we're all receiving via snail mail/e-mail? Those holding CC debt might seriously consider beans and cornbread meals at home in order to aggressively pay the debt down to zero, starting with the one with the smallest balance. The compounding effect of those changes in terms will create a black hole for the principal, as it's swallowed up in interest and fees.

I repeat, beans and cornbread meals at home. Or better yet, make friendly with the neighbors, have a cookout, and split the costs? Maybe even turn off the TV and have a family game night? And the library is already paid for with taxes, why not use it for all it offers? OK, OK, I know I'm headed for RANT territory here. But it just blows my brain how many folks believe the NATIONAL economy is in a recession or a depression, but refuse to live like their PERSONAL economy is in either...

alevin said:
Just a thought, they've been talking eventual cc collapse/crisis coming for probably 2 years now. It will come, I'm convinced of that, just don't know what month. People overleveraged on cc, tappped out on HELOCs, morts under water, unemployment, yes, people will live on their ccs, until they can't anymore, if that's what they need to do to pay their other bills-then default the cards if it comes to that.
Click to expand...
 
All the know-it-all Yuppies on here keep parroting the lamestream media and saying everything it just fine and wonderful. LOL! I wonder how long you all can convince yourselves that everything is happy-go-lucky?

Jason the Fed
 
Just a thought, they've been talking eventual cc collapse/crisis coming for probably 2 years now. It will come, I'm convinced of that, just don't know what month. People overleveraged on cc, tappped out on HELOCs, morts under water, unemployment, yes, people will live on their ccs, until they can't anymore, if that's what they need to do to pay their other bills-then default the cards if it comes to that.

A very good friend of mine started a franchise business from scratch using her cc's, and this was years ago. She slowly crawled out of cc debt, but every time she was almost out, another big crisis would require hitting the cc again. That went on for years. She's mainly out from under at this point, but that's where she turns still when there is something unexpected to deal with. Her retirement $ are vested in rentals and undeveloped 10-acre view-lots she hopes to sell off someday to fairly wealthy individuals (not me; for example-doctors, lawyers, etc.). She figures the market will come back to her RE goal prices eventually, in the meantime there's the business and cc's and paying the mortgages on the rentals. the business franchise should survive, it's one of those services that people pay up for even in recessions/depressions-until they can't. Rentals-I admire her capacity to deal with those w/o handing off to property-mgt. co.
 
malyla said:
I spoke to soon. Just got a reissue of a card that was not to expire until 2012. The notice says "For your security - This card replaces your current card, regardless of the expiration date." I know I have great credit, but I wonder what happened to those who do not have good credit during these replacements 'for your security'? I haven't heard of any breach in security for the Discover Card.

Now that I think about it, two other cards have been reissued or changed in the last year. I think the industry knows what was coming and is protecting themselves. They can always check your credit rating. All credit checks are listed in your free credit reports. I just thought they were checking to offer me a better card deal, but it was most likely a check for a change in my status. Hmmmm, maybe I should be more paranoid.
Click to expand...

Check the fine print...They may have changed some of their rules or apr.
 
malyla said:
Use the credit card which, once issued, is never checked for credit worthiness again until default.
Click to expand...

I spoke to soon. Just got a reissue of a card that was not to expire until 2012. The notice says "For your security - This card replaces your current card, regardless of the expiration date." I know I have great credit, but I wonder what happened to those who do not have good credit during these replacements 'for your security'? I haven't heard of any breach in security for the Discover Card.

Now that I think about it, two other cards have been reissued or changed in the last year. I think the industry knows what was coming and is protecting themselves. They can always check your credit rating. All credit checks are listed in your free credit reports. I just thought they were checking to offer me a better card deal, but it was most likely a check for a change in my status. Hmmmm, maybe I should be more paranoid.
 
James48843 said:
Historical Unemployment data-

We're now above 8% nationally, and climbing. Rate wise, worse since the 182-84 recession.

View attachment 5976
But as for the actual number of persons unemployed, we just past the the actual number of the 83 recession, and are still climbing. We're above 13 million today, compared to 12 point something million in the 83 recession.​


Click to expand...

I'm now agreeing with all those who have said that the credit card companies will be the next crisis. Reasoning - What will all the unemployed workers do when their savings are used up? Use the credit card which, once issued, is never checked for credit worthiness again until default. This will be a delayed action, but we should be seeing something sometime in the summer (late) from these credit card companies. I did pay attention when they reported at the beginning of the year that VISA/MC had a profit for the 4th quarter of 2008. I'm concerned about the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2009 as those credit card bills are not paid. Just to be clear, this problem will occur with only 1-15% of the card holders as the rest of us do pay on time or payoff our balances. But in the financially weaken state we are in, can a company weather even a small percentage of their card holders defaulting (either through bankruptcy or just not paying)?
 
James48843

James48843

Well-known member
Historical Unemployment data-

We're now above 8% nationally, and climbing. Rate wise, worse since the 1982-84 recession.


But as for the actual number of persons unemployed, we just past the the actual number of the 83 recession, and are still climbing. We're above 12.5 million today, compared to 12 point something million in the 83 recession.​


From the DOL press release this morning:

"The number of unemployed persons increased by 851,000 to 12.5 million in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 8.1 percent. Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has increased by about 5.0 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 3.3 percentage points. (See table
A-1.)

The unemployment rate continued to trend upward in February for adult men (8.1 percent), adult women (6.7 percent), whites (7.3 percent), blacks (13.4 percent), and Hispanics (10.9 percent). The jobless rate for teen-
agers was little changed at 21.6 percent. The unemployment rate for Asians was 6.9 percent in February, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs increased by 716,000 to 7.7 million in February. This mea-
sure has grown by 3.8 million in the last 12 months. (See table A-8.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 270,000 to 2.9 million in February. Over the past 12 months,
the number of long-term unemployed was up by 1.6 million. (See table A-9.)

Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

What is different this time is how fast and how far we've already bounced up in unemployment, and we're not seeing ANYTHING expect an accelleration in the decline of employment, work hours, etc. It's getting worse, not leveling off.

No bottom in site.

My tip for the day:

Buy farm implements.

124433787_66e8ea180c.jpg

Plant a victory garden for 2009.
 
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