HedgeHog Account Talk

[HedgeHog]

Sitting 20% C and 80% G. Bought C on 14 Jan. and will sit on it now that I didn't get out on the last bounce. Was on back to back to back TDYs to Rota, Sigonella, Djibouti and Odessa Ukraine from 20 Jan. to 10 Feb. and Djibouti closed the base computer center late in the week due to a tragedy on Camp and in the Ukraine I was busy in the day at a conf. and drinking beer/volka in the evening. Anyway, when I got back to Naples the bounce was going back south and I jumped in one day with 10% to S and out the next day for a 5 cent per share gain but used both IFTs. Now wish I had those IFTs as I am a spectator on the sidelines unitl March (when I will also be TDY when it begins).

Anyway, an observation that I am sure many on TSP Talk have noticed. That is that at 7600 76 points in the dow represent 1%. Compared to last year at this time it took a lot more points to make 1% move in the market. If we are at the bottom or not or close, one can't help but notice that getting in at the current prices turn into a bigger gain a lot faster when the market bounces up. In the risk reward world things are looking better standing here in the gutter of the stock market right now then buying in at the mountain top. Got my Thrift Savings Plan annual statement a few days ago and was more then thankfull to have a personal 2008 Investment Performance of 6.22%. I owe the people that write comments on this website because that is my major information source of when to jump and when to stand still and never buy and hold indefinitely. Best to all on the TSP Talk in making money this year and more importantly having a happy year with the ones they love. HH

 

[Birchtree]

As a point of useless information - my daughter ran in the eight mile race in Honolulu on Monday without stopping. She is definitely a Gator. And earned a day off this Friday.

 

[HedgeHog]

As a point of useless information - my daughter ran in the eight mile race in Honolulu on Monday without stopping. She is definitely a Gator. And earned a day off this Friday.

Birch,

I read the Honolulu Advertiser on the net and read they had the great Aloha Run recently. The military teams start out first and run together and its a great feeling. I am an old civilian but was invited to run with a joint civilian and military team in the Feb. 2007 Great Aloha Run. Under the viaduct going past the Airport it is awe inspiring to hear the Army teams jody calls and cadence echo for a few miles under the viaduct on the way to the Aloha Stadium. Did Buzz run with her unit or as individual runner. I bet she has a great memory from this run. I don't know if your into running or jogging but If you are out there in Feb. of any year it is a flat run almost all the way and though our children can beat us by a mile it is still a lot of fun. HH

 

[Birchtree]

Thanks for your inquiry - Buzz ran with her unit. She is trying to lose a little weight so had an extra incentive. I used to be a consistent 5 miler every day and one day just stopped running when I turned 45. I figured I'd worked hard enough from my early twenties that it was fair time to take a break.

 

[HedgeHog]

Starting to use the tracker next Monday and am 100G.

My short term thinking from an assortment of the economic opinions out there to include this MB is: Cunsumer spending will recover slowly.
1. 1rst quarter earnings will be neg. and a drag on market with estimates down and then actual earnings reports down (neg).
2. Signs of economic recovery will sprout up on an ongoing basis with low interest rates for those that qualify (pos).
3. Many will not qualify even when credit frees up a bit.
4. The pendulum will swing from anything goes concerning financial products to something more conservative and more regulated. (pos in that confidence that the current "out of control" period will end and sounder values/behavior will be the direction the pendulum swings (pos).
5. People still with jobs will save more. This is a double edged item. Note Japan where people save well but don't consume as much as in America where people don't save as much and consume more. With more money saved there is more money looking for a place to invest and I don't see America being patient very long. (pos for market)
6. The endless amount of money pumped into everything to big to fail (GM, Chryser, Auto Parts Companies, Insurance, Banks, Brokers) along with the stimulus money part 1, part 2? and the other trillions of dollars being spent will undoubtedly stir up some economic activity and when the dust settles result in positive growth in a few quarters and the thought that this hudge mess the county is in is turning around. Positive in the short term, coming months and few years and then who knows. Huge hangover. Note 1929 to 1945 and 1989 Japan through present gives a historical precedent that an economy can be screwed up for decades. Probably screwing up the countries future in many ways people haven't even thought of yet. On a positive note, America has a lot of resources in farm lands and minerals and forrests and most of all in the talents and skills of its people and will rise above this current pile of crap the country is in. And that isn't just the party line but a fact.
7. My view is, we are still in a resession in that negative growth in the economy will persist this quarter and next. The market from my perspective is going back down. It didn't seem like we had the last gasp and dive into oblivion that I had read about and was looking for. On the other side of the coin the folks that haven't sold yet and rode this all the way down will probably not sell now because they have endured this bear market this far and will hold out for the bottom (maybe it was the interday S&P 666 we recently had) and rise back up. That in itself is positive for the market. For older folks like myself we are probably more risk adverse then some younger folks in the TSP but that is certainly not a universal either. Thus, the side of the coin one believes in (bull, bear, bear market bounce, dead cat bounce or whatever) will probably impact our choices/actions along with other factors such as our own economic situation.

Bottom line - I will hang out in G and see where we go from here. Sitting on one IFT left for March in case there is a major break down next week. HH

 

[WorkFE]

Great analysis.
Generally folks are either Doom or Boom. I appreciate the way you mix in negatives and positives.

Thanks and good hunting

 

[HedgeHog]

Earnings outlook still bleak in next couple quarters.

How many trillion dollar rabbits can the Fed and Treasury pull out of thier
_ _ _ while the markets applaud while some notice the cure is worse then the medicine. By the way that is pull out of their HAT. I'm beginning to think the magician is insane.

Staying on the side watching the show for now. It is dangerous out there with a questionable bottom and Commercial Realestate Debt and other problems on the rise rather then receeding. Plus, confidence in a system full of schemers rather then thinkers doesn't help. The saying the inmates are running the place seems to fit. Well tomorrow is another day as Scarlet Ohara says. HH