Down 50-points out of the gate on Friday, the Dow rallied into positive territory by the close, and the broader indices performed even better with the small caps gaining nearly 1% on the day.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 310"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 157"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0063%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.66%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.91%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.78%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Last week the TSP stock funds gained between 2.4% and 2.9% and bonds (F-fund) added 0.6%.
The S&P 500 (SPY) has been moving straight up since the post government shutdown low, but there is now some resistance overhead so we should get an idea pretty quickly this week if the resistance is going to be an issue.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq led the way Friday thanks to a +122-point day for Google's stock (+13.8%). The spike higher created another open gap on the Nasdaq chart, and the concern here is that this gap could be an exhaustion gap.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk |
Exhaustion Gap Definition | Investopedia
The New Highs posted on Friday moved above 400 and that is at a level not seen since May. This could be an indication of being overbought since the +400 reading is not that common and the last time we saw it (and only time on this chart) stocks pullbacks fairly sharply.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Today is the 15th trading day of the month. October's post option expiration week is historically negative. If we are going to get a pullback from the recent spike higher, history would suggest it could be this week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bond yields moved sharply lower late last week although we did see a bit of a reversal on Friday.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
There are also large open gaps overhead on the yield charts which, if filled, could mean some short-term weakness for bonds and the F-fund.
The September jobs report will be released tomorrow (Tuesday). Estimates are looking for a gain of 183,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 7.3%.
In today's TSP Talk Plus report we will look at the the New Highs problem, and Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Indicator, and a few more index charts.
For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
