Guess the Jobs Report - Feb 2013

[tsptalk]

Mindylou must have been listening to MSNBC again - I'll have another talk with her to be more particular where she gets her numbers.

December was revised up... Jan down.

 

[Birchtree]

Mindylou must have been listening to MSNBC again - I'll have another talk with her to be more particular where she gets her numbers.

 

[Frixxxx]

I wouldn't be so sure - January was revised up.

Nope down, 157K down to 119K.....

 

[Birchtree]

I wouldn't be so sure - January was revised up.

 

[Frixxxx]

The report will be revised down next month, mark my words, by 50,000. Freakin liars.

 

[tsptalk]

Looks like the early reaction has been a pop, and a bit of a drop so far. The Dow has given back more than half its opening gains, but it's early. "Buy the rumor, sell the news"?

A few years ago we saw surprise reports (50,000 above or below estimates) show a very clear pattern of fading the initial move a day or two later.

sentimenTrader used to track this. The pattern has been less consistent the last couple of years and that may have been why ST hasn't posted the numbers in a while. The fade has been coming more quickly lately. Sometimes in the afternoon of the jobs report.

 

[tsptalk]

My guess is 226,000

We have a winner!

Actual +236,000
Unemployment 7.7%

Nice job, B! If you'd like a mug, please PM me your shipping address. Won't hold my breath.

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks for playing. I'll check the predictions and results in the morning.

 

[imike023]

187k

 

[bmneveu]

+171,000

 

[JTH]

180K

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Hey! Stay away from my number RMI you're not leaving me any wiggle room!

:cheesy:

 

[PLANO]

Hey! Stay away from my number RMI you're not leaving me any wiggle room!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

+194k

 

[clester]

161000

 

[MrBowl]

162k

 

[tsptalk]

Hedging your prize fund?

I lost my mug.

 

[remark]

+177,000

 

[Frixxxx]

+174,000

Hedging your prize fund?

 

[tsptalk]

+174,000