Goldman Sachs abandons its bearish near-term view on stocks, says the bottom is in

[Bullitt]

A tale of two forecasts. Their first forecast was highly publicized. Now they are saying it was wrong.

3/15/2020: Goldman Sachs Warns S&P 500 Might Not Bottom Until 2,000

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...hs-warns-s-p-500-might-not-bottom-until-2-000

4/13/2020: Goldman Sachs abandons its bearish near-term view on stocks, says the bottom is in

Our call of the day, from a team of Goldman Sachs strategists led by David Kostin, says the worst of the market rout is behind us. A “previous near-term downside of 2000 [for the S&P 500] is no longer likely. Our year-end S&P 500 target remains 3000 (+8%),” says the team in a note to clients on Monday.

 

[jonfresno]

So the first was a contrarian indicator - is the second as well? :smile:

A tale of two forecasts. Their first forecast was highly publicized. Now they are saying it was wrong.



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...hs-warns-s-p-500-might-not-bottom-until-2-000

 

[Bullitt]

The latest from the "master planners". Their target was 3,000 and we're almost there.

As I've said before, if the market goes down 20%, the ones who were "looking to buy a pullback" will only be looking for the market to go lower. Then they'll say that the fed has manipulated the market and "their" indicators don't work in this kind of market. The news will probably be pretty bad if we drop 20% from here so prepare for it if it happens.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says pessimism will soon get the upper hand and send the S&P 500 Index down almost 20% in the next three months. Goldman says the S&P 500 will probably drop to 2,400 over the next three months before it rebounds to 3,000 by year end.

Kostin notes that large swaths of the investor community have failed to cash in on the S&P 500’s 31% surge since its trough on March 23. He points out that most mutual funds have underperformed since the bear market low, with long/short and macro hedge funds posting single-digit returns as a group, and investors may face pressure to chase the rally.“The ‘fear of missing out’ best describes the thought process,” Kostin said.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-says-stocks-due-18-134656637.html

 

[tsptalk]

Goldman Sachs tapers call for stock-market drop
The firm sees downside risk capped at 10%

Goldman Sachs has thrown in the towel on its forecast for a sharp selloff in U.S. stocks.

Strategists led by U.S. equity chief David Kostin no longer believe the S&P 500 will fall more than 20 percent from Friday’s closing level of 3,044 to 2,400. Instead, they see the potential low capped at 2,750 and predict the index could rally as high as 3,200.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/goldman-sachs-stock-market-drop-call-revised

 

[Bullitt]

Update 9/8/2020.

Goldman: 10 strong reasons why this bull market should continue

1: The market is in the ‘hope’ phase of a new cycle

2: Increased likelihood of coronavirus vaccines makes economic recovery more durable

3: Economic forecasts are on the up

4: The bank’s bear market indicator is low

5: Aggressive central bank and government support reduces tail risk

6: The equity risk premium has room to fall

7: Negative real interest rates support equities

8: Equities provide an inflation hedge

9: Equities look cheap compared to corporate debt

10: Tech is not a bubble

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/g...-market-has-further-to-run-20200908?link=mktw