Going back to G fund for 3/31

[smine]

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I too usually do well when Tom makes suggestions. Must be quite a pressure however. Today I deviated slightly but was still ahead of the game. Last summer-fall I figured this out for myself, to manipulate the allocations. Even my staff got into the act and we started looking daily versus the whatever attitude we used to have (mostly the G). Today, we are making decisions based on everyone's input as well as the market's current status. Bottom line is not to lose any, and to jump ahead grabbing gains when the situation presents itself. That's why we want input from everyone before the deadline. You can bet that we are waiting, watching the message board at 10:0am-11am everyday. Thanks to all who add their ideas and strategies. Welcome to all newcomers!

 

[caspar]

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Tom your advice appears to be very good and have followed what you saying closely this combined with following what is happening in the world seems to strenghen my decisions on moves. I have stay 30 c 30 s & 50 I tommorow may prove to be bad but i hate this early in the month to be sitting on the sidelines. The only corncern i have now is the I is about to reach previous peak and will drop back so if I looks good tommorow i will pull and be just 50 c 50 I. I think the I reached 13.64 2 or 3 weeks ago. keep up the good work.

 

[tsptalk]

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I am usually pretty aggressive but I admit I have been trying to get a bit too cute lately. I can also tell that I'm doing things a little differently then if I wasn't telling everyone what I was doing. Now my ego gets in the way sometimes. How can I say the market looks terrible one day then get in the next? I never had to explain stuff like that before.

I get emails once in a while from people saying, "You told us to go into the I fund yesterday and today you're going back to the G?What the hell?"

Irealize some people don't get my emails until after the deadline, then a new change againthe next day can really make their heads spin. So rather than doing what I normally do, I worry about the reaction. I guess the only thing I should be worried about is getting the best return. That's the bottom line.

I like to hear whenyou folks are making your own allocation decisions based onreading my comments,reading and discussing the market situation on the board, and listening to market news.That's what this is all about. But some people are still very new and are learning as they go anddon't feel comfortable yetmaking their own decisions. But I can see that changing already just from the feedback I get. We're all learning everyday.

Thanks everyone,
Tom

 

[COONDOGCEMETARY]

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Tom , i followed you into the i fund, stayed a day longer, did well, c and s all week , reaped the gains, but tomorrow has me concerned. i increased 30 c and 30 s, . i am concerned that you are on the side alot. do you always invest with such strategyand planning, or do u fly by the seat of ur pants sometimes.

i thank you very much for this site and your help,

 

[lucky]

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Thanks for the info. I forgot when speaking about the C and S I don't track the "correct" funds for those.

Your G fund info was a nice learning experience although I usually hold my breath and risk more perhaps than you.

 

[JerBer]

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Ditto Puertorico, this site has been an invaluable resource for me since stumbling onto it a while back. I have learned SOOOOOOOO much in the last month and a half, it's just incredible! And I've been sharing the wealth with coworkers that didn't even know their pin, couldn't tell me where their funds were allocated, etc. So I'm just trying to enlighten them a little bit about awareness, and in the process, tell them about this goldmine-of-a-find!

I know I'll probably be kicking myself, but I jumped back in the game for tomorrow's job report day! Even if I lose some tomorrow, I can't bear (no pun intended) sitting on the sidelines while the numbers go up and up and........

So..................... 25% S , 25%C , & 50%I

Straight ahead, missiles be damned!!

JerBer

 

[tsptalk]

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Thanks PR! I appreciate that. Since I don't really make any money doing this, knowing I am helping makes it worthwhile. Plus I enjoy it

Tom

 

[puertorico]

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I was seeing my oldTSP statements,And in 2000 to 2002

I dont even knowitthat was a bear market:shock:

I was to risky ANd I have big chunk of looses.Now after

this site I feel more educated doing transfer.tHANKs a lot.

This forrum has beenwhat a lot o people like me were

looking for.

I most of the time follow u step.SOMe times I do my

own risk.Thank a lot "this forrum has been good to me

 

[tsptalk]

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Yes, smine, I'm still 100%in G. Sorry if I confused you.

I'm not even thinking about the F fund. Eventually the jobs should start showing up in these reports and that will mean higher bond yields and a lower bond fund.

I'm not scared that we will have a bad jobs report. I'm scared we will have a good one and the market will take off without me again. The only reason I'm on the sidelines is because of the indicators. Even a good jobs report could be a "sell on the news" situation as people have obviously been "buying the rumor." That's what I'm counting on. If the report is bad, all the better for those of us on the sidelines. But like I said, the jobs are being created (per many economists). They just haven't shown up yet in these reports yet.

PR -
If you are going to be wrong, being too bullish is better than being too bearish right now. I'm glad you got something in the market. I hate to see anyone not make money because of me.

I don't consider that I'm too bearish. Bears bet that the market is going to go down. They actually lose money when it goes up. I'm just on the sidelines being neutral right now.I was bearish is January but no longer.

Tom

 

[puertorico]

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I think the lastmonth wich a bad report the

market went up anyway.That whyI'll take the risk :shock:

 

[puertorico]

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I just change from 100% to 70-G - 10-C - 10-S - 10-I

I want to be in the game just in case

nOw i'm scare :shock:

 

[smine]

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Tom, I sense conflict. Bottom line is you're staying in G 100% ? It was more fun when it soared last fall! I am following you with 80% G, with a dabble of 10% each in S and I. The jobs report will make us wish we were in F or not necessarily?

 

[tsptalk]

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It's very frustrating sitting on the sidelines while the market shoots up. I like to console myself by saying I'm preserving my capital for a better risk/reward opportunity. Bull. This stinks. If the jobs report wasn't tomorrow I'd probably bite the bullet and get in, but you never know what could happen Friday. My guess is the report will be good, but have we already seen that factored into the market?Possibly.

If you haven't gotten in yet, be careful. In the long run it won't be a major factor, but the only thing more frustrating than being on the sidelines when the market is shooting up, is jumping in late and having it shoot down.

Tom

 

[Frizz B.]

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Tom, I do thank you for the I fund, I did wait an extra day and pick up an extra $1200 than if I was in my C Fund. I did switch back to the yesterday for today.

Thanks again

 

[tsptalk]

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Wheels answered most of your questions but I Just wanted to add a little...

Do you track the G fund daily? If so where is it posted and why do you favor it.

I track the daily quoteson http://www.tsp.gov/rates/share-prices.html
and I also keep track of the returns of the G, and all funds on
http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns.html.

Do you find it really makes you money or do you just park there untill you think you can jump back in to the C, S or I.

As wheels said, it can't go down so I use it as a hiding place when I think the market might come down.I would also use the F fund but I'm not too keen on bonds currently.

I've been 50/50 C and S this week. Have done quite well enen though I will take a hit tomorrow?I do have to say I amcurrently at an alltime high today so I guess I can't complain.

If you've been riding the stock funds on the way up and don't mind the fluctuations, then I agree, you might as well let it ride.

Hope that helps,
Tom

 

[Wheels]

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Hi Lucky. Why do you think the S and the C are going to do poorly tomorrow?

To try to answer a couple of your questions, the G fund goes up (only up) at a rate determined by U.S. Treasuries. Right now it's somewhere around 4%. Since our funds have been assigned a share price rounded off to the nearest penny, that means the G fund will go up one cent every 5 or 6 days. So even if you haven't been in the G fund for a few days, you can move into it for one day and get the 1 cent increase.

We pay administrative fees equally regardless of how often you move your shares around.

Did you see my post on the I fund? I found out that the closing price of the I fund includes the closing prices from foreign markets from earlier that same day. There's no way to see that Japan is doing well, and then move into the I fund to take advantage of it. You've been very lucky indeed.

Dave

 

[lucky]

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Do you track the G fund daily? If so where is it posted and why do you favor it. Do you find it really makes you money or do you just park there untill you think you can jump back in to the C, S or I. I saw a post about timing the G and I didn't really understand what they were talking about in terms of the payouts.

I've been 50/50 C and S this week. Have done quite well enen though I will take a hit tomorrow?I do have to say I amcurrently at an alltime high today so I guess I can't complain.I can't decide if I want to stay or go back to I. As I said before I usually hide in F. I assume you think G is better and would like you to shead some light on your move.

Also, I read the TSP charges administration fees monthly, do you think we pay more if we move our funds around rather than kkep them in one place throughout the month?

Thanks,

Lucky

 

[tsptalk]

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I'm thinking I'll wait for Friday or Monday. After the jobs report.

I remember last month we had a very disappointing jobs report and the market rallied strongly by the end of the day. It didn't digest that info and drop until the following trading day. I wonder what a good report will do? Drop, then rally Monday?

Tom

 

[puertorico]

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Tom are u gonna do a move today ?

or just stay put on G for now that the

market breakdown:shock:

 

[COONDOGCEMETARY]

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if thats the case , stay out until im rich, lol