Future Retirement Calculations

[PessOptimist]

FWIW. I made the take home pay the goal. SO said I couldn't retire unless she had the same amount coming in. I screwed up somewhat about income taxes due in the first year. So far she has not insisted I get a job at 69. Deferred SS until 70yo so SO gets more.
MHO is contribute max to TSP and get rid of all debt if you can. We paid off the house as soon as we could and cars are paid for. Neighbors may laugh about the cars as they have BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, etc.

My TSP will likely last in to my 90s which means after I am dead. I do wish I could invest it more wisely.

To actually try to answer your question, you are way too far out from retirement to know. The try to match the take home pay worked. Many deductions including TSP allotment were no longer there. Just watch the withholding as it ads up quickly and IRS will want a chunk.

Good luck and all I can say is keep saving somewhere, pay off the house and try to pay cash for that new car.

 

[evilanne]

I'm hoping to get some insight on how everyone figures how much they need/will need for retirement.

I crunched the numbers today for my situation, albeit with many assumptions since I'm still 20-25 years from retirement.
I estimated my FERS pension, social security benefit, potential TSP balance, and estimated my post-retirement income needs.

I then used the Federal Ballpark Estimate calculator on the OPM website which seems useful. https://www.opm.gov/retirement-services/calculators/federal-ball-park-estimator
My pencil and paper numbers coincided very closely with the calculator.

I also played around with this retirement calculator at nerdwallet: https://www.nerdwallet.com/investing/retirement-calculator

Based on all the estimates I seem to be on track to easily replace 70% of my income. I ran all the numbers conservatively, accounted for 3% inflation, and didn't forget about taxes!
My strategy is still to invest as much as I can. I don't know what the future holds.

Does anybody have any additional tips, methods, advice that could help we better visualize my retirement needs?

t
In addition to contributing 10-15% annually as Bullitt recommends, it is important to live within your means and stay out of debt, particularly credit card & vehicles.

I retired early and on average my TSP (life expectancy) + Pension has been about 50%, this year will be about 70% with the supplement. It really depends on your personal situation and the lifestyle you want in retirement.

I do think some financial advisors and retirement calculators overestimate at 80%. Many people do not have any pension these days and are only relying on their 401Ks, IRAs. When FERs came out, they described it as a 3 legged stool, Pension - TSP - Social Security.

Some of the TSP calculators are pretty helpful, see https://www.tsp.gov/calculators/tsp-payment-and-annuity-calculator/#top, Depending on your agency, your personnel office may have online information based on your current earnings &. year of service that will project your retirement benefit at different stages, i.e. early, age 62 and FRA

Other calculators that I came across at https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/

https://firecalc.com.

https://www.i-orp.com/Plans/index.html

https://www.flexibleretirementplanner.com/wp/planner-launch-page/

I remember using 1 or 2 of these, they can be involved.

Good Luck.

 

[Bullitt]

20-25 years is too far away to get anything closer than a ballpark estimate. The most accurate estimates will be in the year you plan to retire. Life throws you curveballs. Things change, so save while you actually have the money to save. Don't "sock away everything", that's dumb advice. Enjoy your life and your youth responsibly.

Most retirement calculators assume age 67 retirement, but if you're saving 10-15% over 20-25 years, you will still have enough.

As far as a percentage, right off the bat you can take whatever percent you contribute to TSP and social security off your salary since you won't be contributing to them in retirement.

 

[mmk119]

I would look at 80% as a better target. the 70% model assumes a more frugal living at lower tax rates. both, not realistic. also, doesn't account for future inflation or tax raises past retirement; or increased medical costs - that always happen. at 80% you can live in retirement at the same standard you are living while working; or at least very close to...

 

[bubbagump]

I'm hoping to get some insight on how everyone figures how much they need/will need for retirement.

I crunched the numbers today for my situation, albeit with many assumptions since I'm still 20-25 years from retirement.
I estimated my FERS pension, social security benefit, potential TSP balance, and estimated my post-retirement income needs.

I then used the Federal Ballpark Estimate calculator on the OPM website which seems useful. https://www.opm.gov/retirement-services/calculators/federal-ball-park-estimator
My pencil and paper numbers coincided very closely with the calculator.

I also played around with this retirement calculator at nerdwallet: https://www.nerdwallet.com/investing/retirement-calculator

Based on all the estimates I seem to be on track to easily replace 70% of my income. I ran all the numbers conservatively, accounted for 3% inflation, and didn't forget about taxes!
My strategy is still to invest as much as I can. I don't know what the future holds.

Does anybody have any additional tips, methods, advice that could help me better visualize my retirement needs?