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From all G to S today
- Thread starter kb9nvh
- Start date
felixthecat
TSP Analyst
- Reaction score
- 41
- AutoTracker
I'm seriously thinking on it. If you look at last years negative beginning in the market, you will see that Tuesday rallied about 5/8-3/4 percent. While that may not be a lot, it fits into the shaky beginnings this year. I just don't know if it will be on a Tuesday or Wednesday of this week if past performance pattern has any barring on this week. I do believe a good day is coming. Still deciding...Tuesday or Wednesday. However, what I do know is that Performance Summary Chart on the Latest Commentary Page shows negative for Tues and Wed I believe. I actually use this chart as a contrarian chart since during volatile trading..this is usually off. I do find the S&P 500 Seasonality Chart on the Latest Commentary page to be okay...and therefore it shows 50 percent chance of the market being positive...good enough to risk an early in...Wednesday actually looks good and the rest of the week looks good. So, a move for me is coming. Today or Tomorrow.
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,158
In the general sense, there are alwasy more up days than down days, but the up days are smaller than the down days, therefore the negative average gains (over the long-term) are alwasy greater than the postive average gains. Keeping in mind, the markets genneraly close up 54% of the time.
Boghie
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 363
The average return of the S&P500 is 7% after inflation. The centerpoint of the curve is a 7% (or 10% with inflation).
Remember, the greedy C*Os don't really make money on losing money.
JTH stated that 54% of the time the S&P500 moves up, but when it drops it drops rapidly. When people bottom fish it bumps up rapidly. Rapidly is not a half percent or even a full percent. The rapid drops we have to watch for are 4%+. Those happen. I watched actual gains in 2008 rapidly dump into losses never to recover. I'm talking about less than a week. Do any of you think we are in another 2008? Isn't a few points up or a few points down just market noise? Isn't is more dangerous to be out of a market that gains much more than it loses because of a point or three move to the downside over a week or two. Have you seen the boom ups after drops - do you want to miss them.
I have to trust that an S&P500 that centers at 10% will gain me money if I am in it.
We all strive for Alpha with a little market timing, but in general you should be in during periods of noise.
Remember, the greedy C*Os don't really make money on losing money.
JTH stated that 54% of the time the S&P500 moves up, but when it drops it drops rapidly. When people bottom fish it bumps up rapidly. Rapidly is not a half percent or even a full percent. The rapid drops we have to watch for are 4%+. Those happen. I watched actual gains in 2008 rapidly dump into losses never to recover. I'm talking about less than a week. Do any of you think we are in another 2008? Isn't a few points up or a few points down just market noise? Isn't is more dangerous to be out of a market that gains much more than it loses because of a point or three move to the downside over a week or two. Have you seen the boom ups after drops - do you want to miss them.
I have to trust that an S&P500 that centers at 10% will gain me money if I am in it.
We all strive for Alpha with a little market timing, but in general you should be in during periods of noise.
Thinking about going all G today. I know I should stick with this but I have so much at risk. I suck at investing but catching a good bet every now and then can really perk up a lagging portfolio.
As of COB yesterday 25%C, 25%S and 50%F.
I've traditionally left F alone but from watching you guys it looks like a better safe haven than G for normal times.
I'm 56 and I plan on 5 years to retirement. With $520K now and need to work my way closer to $1000K. I cant just hang out in G but I'm afraid of the bottom dropping out of this. Keeping an eye on all you guys really helps get a feeling for where the dangers are and when it's time to bail out so maybe I should stay in and until calamity gets a little closer. I hate/love this. haha
As of COB yesterday 25%C, 25%S and 50%F.
I've traditionally left F alone but from watching you guys it looks like a better safe haven than G for normal times.
I'm 56 and I plan on 5 years to retirement. With $520K now and need to work my way closer to $1000K. I cant just hang out in G but I'm afraid of the bottom dropping out of this. Keeping an eye on all you guys really helps get a feeling for where the dangers are and when it's time to bail out so maybe I should stay in and until calamity gets a little closer. I hate/love this. haha
BichonFreeze
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 3
If you've found you're not that sharp at investing; why not give the premium services a try? Some of those on there have averaged very strong returns ~10% annual which could get you to 1000K by a retirement at 65.
I did try out coolhand for a while but found I would miss his ALERTS and then sit wondering about timing entries and exits again.
Actually, I find that following all the players on here really helps get a feel for what I should do. Unfortunately, trying to get to know everyone's personalities and interpret sometimes snarky commentary, it's difficult to determine sometimes their real thoughts on what they think is happening.
Maybe I'm just an L fund kinda guy but those seem so conservative at my stage of career.
Actually, I find that following all the players on here really helps get a feel for what I should do. Unfortunately, trying to get to know everyone's personalities and interpret sometimes snarky commentary, it's difficult to determine sometimes their real thoughts on what they think is happening.
Maybe I'm just an L fund kinda guy but those seem so conservative at my stage of career.
BichonFreeze
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 3
That does seem to be the fundamental issue; unless you're 100% committed...timing the market can prove lethal. There were a few times last year I wanted to make trades on certain days but had forgotten; then either entered/left the market too late with cake on my face.
From watching the personalities on here it seems that you can't go wrong listening to JTH's and Bquat's technical analysis, and making a judgement from there. They are pretty straightforward. I've found if nothing else the seasonality trends Tom posts are always a good thing to consider too.
With a portfolio of that size at this point late in your career and with the bull market surging; I'd be nervous of having such a large profile fall victim to getting caught in the 'market correction' we have been hearing for the last couple years that could happen ANY DAY now as the doomsayers say! Really it's all risk v. reward. I imagine you'd balk at losing more than 5%; so if you're in and the market has dropped over 5% maybe set that as an alert to get out? I don't know really, I just hope to be in your position someday!
Good luck trading.
From watching the personalities on here it seems that you can't go wrong listening to JTH's and Bquat's technical analysis, and making a judgement from there. They are pretty straightforward. I've found if nothing else the seasonality trends Tom posts are always a good thing to consider too.
With a portfolio of that size at this point late in your career and with the bull market surging; I'd be nervous of having such a large profile fall victim to getting caught in the 'market correction' we have been hearing for the last couple years that could happen ANY DAY now as the doomsayers say! Really it's all risk v. reward. I imagine you'd balk at losing more than 5%; so if you're in and the market has dropped over 5% maybe set that as an alert to get out? I don't know really, I just hope to be in your position someday!
Good luck trading.
Shamus13
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 4
It's all about the risk you can stomach. I personally have avoided L-Funds because the funds that relate to me (17-23yrs to retire) have too much invested in the I-Fund. The I-Fund has been a loser lately & the US dollar getting stronger isn't helping. But that's the past, I-Fund maybe the winner this year.
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