Stocks opened higher on Thursday but quickly lost ground and many indices were little changed by the close. The Dow lost 18-points, bonds were up modestly, and the I-fund lost about a half of a percent.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
We get the December jobs report today (Friday). Consensus estimates are looking for approximately 197,000 new jobs being created, and an unemployment rate of 7.0%, although the high end "whisper numbers" are up near 250,000.
According to sentimenTrader.com:
Traders have loved the last year of Nonfarm Payroll report days, as stocks have closed higher almost exclusively since December 2012. On 12 of the last 13 days that the Payroll report was released, the S&P 500 fund, SPY, closed higher on the day, with very little in terms of intraday losses (see table at right)."
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The S&P 500 (SPY) was flat but closed off the lows creating a possible positive reversal day. It is now flirting with new highs again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market leader had a big day as the Transportation Index gained over 1% on the day. It made a new high but it is now testing the top of its rising trading channel.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar was down slightly but most their was strength in early trading, so the I-fund took some of the hit, plus...
[TABLE="width: 84%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
I don't think Wednesday's strength in the dollar was incorporated in the Wednesday's I-fund share price so it paid the price on Thursday. It could just be that the U.S. indices were at their lows in early trading Thursday - about the time the European markets were closing - so we could see some give backs to the I-fund in Friday's price.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Both the dollar's UUP chart, and the I-fund EFA chart have open gaps that need to get filled. A drop in the dollar could help fill both gaps, and a strong jobs report might do that.
Bonds were up again Thursday - just enough for the 7 to 10 year IEF ETF (right) to fill a small overhead open gap. I don't see any other open gaps on the IEF.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The TLT 20+ year Bond ETF is testing the 50-day EMA, which has been a tough nut to crack since it fell below it in early November.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts and indicators, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey and its System. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
We get the December jobs report today (Friday). Consensus estimates are looking for approximately 197,000 new jobs being created, and an unemployment rate of 7.0%, although the high end "whisper numbers" are up near 250,000.
According to sentimenTrader.com:
Traders have loved the last year of Nonfarm Payroll report days, as stocks have closed higher almost exclusively since December 2012. On 12 of the last 13 days that the Payroll report was released, the S&P 500 fund, SPY, closed higher on the day, with very little in terms of intraday losses (see table at right)."
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The S&P 500 (SPY) was flat but closed off the lows creating a possible positive reversal day. It is now flirting with new highs again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market leader had a big day as the Transportation Index gained over 1% on the day. It made a new high but it is now testing the top of its rising trading channel.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar was down slightly but most their was strength in early trading, so the I-fund took some of the hit, plus...
[TABLE="width: 84%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
I don't think Wednesday's strength in the dollar was incorporated in the Wednesday's I-fund share price so it paid the price on Thursday. It could just be that the U.S. indices were at their lows in early trading Thursday - about the time the European markets were closing - so we could see some give backs to the I-fund in Friday's price.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Both the dollar's UUP chart, and the I-fund EFA chart have open gaps that need to get filled. A drop in the dollar could help fill both gaps, and a strong jobs report might do that.
Bonds were up again Thursday - just enough for the 7 to 10 year IEF ETF (right) to fill a small overhead open gap. I don't see any other open gaps on the IEF.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The TLT 20+ year Bond ETF is testing the 50-day EMA, which has been a tough nut to crack since it fell below it in early November.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts and indicators, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey and its System. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
