Stocks were relatively flat on Monday although there were some intraday modest gyrations after the shooting at the U.S. the Capitol Visitor Center. The Dow ended the day up 20-points, the S&P 500 was up 1, and the Nasdaq was down 6. Volume was quite light - the lightest of the year for the S&P 500. Janet Yellen speaks this week and we get the March jobs report on Friday so it could be quiet week mixed with occasional fireworks.
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Source: First quarter GDP tracking below 1%
It's tracking at an average of 0.9% and that is down from initial estimates closer to 1.5%. And of course this could have the opposite affect of what we thought of the 4th Qtr. 1.4% GDP on Friday as it may keep the Fed from raising thus keeping investors happy.
On Friday morning we get the March jobs report and estimates are looking for a gain of 200,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 4.9%. The Jobs Report Contest is now open in the forum. Click here for more info.
The S&P 500 / C-Fund ticked up a bit in a very light volume trading day. There are some minor signs of a break down from the rising trend, but we knew that angle of incline could not sustain itself for too much longer. The question is, will it lead to a more significant pullback, particularly with it finding resistance at the blue descending trend line and that middle of the head test line?
We're still watching this head test play out. The "all's clear" bell for stocks probably can't be rung until a move above the head test, and arguably above the head.
The DWCPF (Dow Completion Index / Small Caps) remains in a sideways to slightly higher consolidation as it drifts below the important 200-day EMA.
The Dow Transportation Index remains in the rising trading channel but pulled back over 1% at one point on Monday before finding some support at the 200-day Simple Moving Average.
The price of oil was down yesterday and continues to try to hold above the 20-day EMA after falling below the rising support line last week.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) filled Thursday's open gap (green) but opened another small gap (red) on Monday morning. It is below its trading channel for a second day but so far has held above the 50-day EMA.
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was up slightly but remains below the recent highs. It looks poised for a breakout but so far it hasn't had the strength. It may be running out of time. Perhaps today's talks by Fed members, including Janet Yellen, will help it decide which way to break.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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Yesterday I mentioned the 2015 4th quarter GDP coming out much stronger than expected: +1.4%, and how this may be a problem for stocks since this could give the Fed a reason to raise rates. Well, yesterday we got a taste of the early 1st quarter estimates and the downward revisions were "massive" according to CNBC's Steve Liesman.
Source: First quarter GDP tracking below 1%
It's tracking at an average of 0.9% and that is down from initial estimates closer to 1.5%. And of course this could have the opposite affect of what we thought of the 4th Qtr. 1.4% GDP on Friday as it may keep the Fed from raising thus keeping investors happy.
On Friday morning we get the March jobs report and estimates are looking for a gain of 200,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 4.9%. The Jobs Report Contest is now open in the forum. Click here for more info.
The S&P 500 / C-Fund ticked up a bit in a very light volume trading day. There are some minor signs of a break down from the rising trend, but we knew that angle of incline could not sustain itself for too much longer. The question is, will it lead to a more significant pullback, particularly with it finding resistance at the blue descending trend line and that middle of the head test line?
We're still watching this head test play out. The "all's clear" bell for stocks probably can't be rung until a move above the head test, and arguably above the head.
The DWCPF (Dow Completion Index / Small Caps) remains in a sideways to slightly higher consolidation as it drifts below the important 200-day EMA.
The Dow Transportation Index remains in the rising trading channel but pulled back over 1% at one point on Monday before finding some support at the 200-day Simple Moving Average.
The price of oil was down yesterday and continues to try to hold above the 20-day EMA after falling below the rising support line last week.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) filled Thursday's open gap (green) but opened another small gap (red) on Monday morning. It is below its trading channel for a second day but so far has held above the 50-day EMA.
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was up slightly but remains below the recent highs. It looks poised for a breakout but so far it hasn't had the strength. It may be running out of time. Perhaps today's talks by Fed members, including Janet Yellen, will help it decide which way to break.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
