It was another flatsville day on Wall Street on Thursday with the Dow slipping 6-points, the S&P was up slightly, and the Nasdaq and small caps posted small losses. The Transports lagged again, with the Transports posting it's 3rd sharp decline in a row to test the 50-day EMA.
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We've seen some decent earnings reports lately, particularly from the tech world, but one of the big Nasdaq darlings got hit hard after the bell yesterday. Despite beating EPS estimates, Amazon posted a disappointing net revenue number and the stock fell almost $40 in after hours trading, or about 4.6%. That could give the Nasdaq some trouble today.
We get the January jobs report this morning (Friday) and briefing.com's consensus estimates are looking for a gain of 170,000 jobs being created, although their own forecast is +235,000. The unemployment rate estimate remains 4.7%.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was relatively flat on Thursday as it hangs onto the 20-day EMA so technically there's not too much to complain about here despite it not making much progress over the last 8-weeks. After breaking out in late January it has basically stayed above the breakout level (near 227) on a closing basis, but we can see all kinds of wedges, channels, and even a small bear flag formation here that muddies the water a little about which way it will go next. The blue arrows show a negative divergence with falling PMO indicator.
The DWCPF (S-fund) is holding onto the 20-day EMA but unlike the SPY, it is below January's 1180 breakout level. It is consolidating like most indices are right now.
The Dow Transportation Index has taken a hit this week after testing the highs last week. It briefly fell below the 50-day EMA on Thursday but closed above it and just slightly above the short-term rising support line. No major cracks here yet, but it's not far from failing.
The EFA (I-fund) was relative flat on Thursday and it is hovering below the rising wedge but remains in a rising trading channel near multi-month highs.
This may be get nit-picky but the Credit Suisse High Yield Bond Fund (DHY) dipped below a 12-week rising channel yesterday. Just a crack, so we'll see if this becomes something more meaning full in the coming days.
The AGG (bonds / F-fund) rallied slightly and again tested and failed at the 50-day EMA on Thursday. It's trying but that's a lot of resistance overhead.
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Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
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