07/17/13
Stocks took a little breather yesterday and yes, that's what the red numbers meant. I know I had forgotten what a down day looked like. The Dow lost 32-points and we saw modest losses in the C and S funds.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 158"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0064%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.37%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.45%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 is still trying to push through the May high, but we may be seeing a typical double top pullback starting. The rising trading channel is still intact and if it holds, the pullback won't be significant at all.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Ben Bernanke takes the stage again today (Wednesday) and that might have been the cause of the slight nervousness by investors yesterday, since every time he has opened his mouth the market has reacted violently in one direction or the other. Will today's words of wisdom trigger a breakout or a pullback? Stay tuned.
The QQQ ended its 14-day winning streak yesterday. Unlike the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 has broken above the May high, but you can see that open gap there that is ripe for being filled.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index had been forming a flat top, which is generally a bearish formation, and while there was a quick higher high made yesterday, it turned into a possible negative outside reversal day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yesterday's high on the IYT was above the prior day's high, and the low was lower than the prior day's low. It eventually closed below below the that prior day low making it a negative outside day.
Long-term bonds, represented by this TLT chart, are in a 10-week downtrend and right now the upper end of the descending trading channel is being tested.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 20-day EMA is also overhead so bonds have their work cut out for them in the short-term.
The dollar has been quite active lately and I suspect what the Fed has to say today will move the dollar, bonds, as well as the stock market.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Over the last few years we have become accustomed to weakness in the dollar and bonds translating to strength in stocks, but that hasn't always been the case lately so we'll have to see how investors react to any surprises by the Fed.
The catalyst changes from time to time. In the past we've see stocks directly affected by the direction of the dollar, by the price of gold, by oil prices, by the Euro, by the European markets, carry trades, Japan's Nikkei, China's Shanghai Index, etc., etc. Right now the market is completely focused on the Federal Reserve and any hints of tapering their bond buying policy. So all eyes and ears will be on Ben today.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks took a little breather yesterday and yes, that's what the red numbers meant. I know I had forgotten what a down day looked like. The Dow lost 32-points and we saw modest losses in the C and S funds.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 158"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0064%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.37%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.45%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 is still trying to push through the May high, but we may be seeing a typical double top pullback starting. The rising trading channel is still intact and if it holds, the pullback won't be significant at all.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Ben Bernanke takes the stage again today (Wednesday) and that might have been the cause of the slight nervousness by investors yesterday, since every time he has opened his mouth the market has reacted violently in one direction or the other. Will today's words of wisdom trigger a breakout or a pullback? Stay tuned.
The QQQ ended its 14-day winning streak yesterday. Unlike the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 has broken above the May high, but you can see that open gap there that is ripe for being filled.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index had been forming a flat top, which is generally a bearish formation, and while there was a quick higher high made yesterday, it turned into a possible negative outside reversal day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yesterday's high on the IYT was above the prior day's high, and the low was lower than the prior day's low. It eventually closed below below the that prior day low making it a negative outside day.
Long-term bonds, represented by this TLT chart, are in a 10-week downtrend and right now the upper end of the descending trading channel is being tested.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 20-day EMA is also overhead so bonds have their work cut out for them in the short-term.
The dollar has been quite active lately and I suspect what the Fed has to say today will move the dollar, bonds, as well as the stock market.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Over the last few years we have become accustomed to weakness in the dollar and bonds translating to strength in stocks, but that hasn't always been the case lately so we'll have to see how investors react to any surprises by the Fed.
The catalyst changes from time to time. In the past we've see stocks directly affected by the direction of the dollar, by the price of gold, by oil prices, by the Euro, by the European markets, carry trades, Japan's Nikkei, China's Shanghai Index, etc., etc. Right now the market is completely focused on the Federal Reserve and any hints of tapering their bond buying policy. So all eyes and ears will be on Ben today.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
