Farm subsidies!

[Show-me]

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WTO finding that US cotton subsidy is unjust to developing nations will send a ripple thru the farming community. If US doesn't eliminate the subsidy competing nations will be allowed to charge a penalty tariff on US goods to make up the difference. Between 1999 and 2003 $1.5 billion to 25,000 farmers is $370 million annually or $15,000 to each farmer. If this ruling is enforce by the US this will probably be the last year most farmers will plant cotton. This will eventually be felt by all farms as the acres planted in cotton will be converted to soybean and corn acres. Soybean producers are already bracing themselves for this. Equipment manufactures for cotton production will take a hit as will agri-services and chemicals. More acres of other row crops will lower the prices of these commodities. Ouch!

Brazil and other countries are already planning to go after soybean subsidies next. Then rice and wheat. Those farmers that survive will not be trading implements every two years sending a shock to the implement dealers and manufactures.

I don’t think we/they will fell the pinch from this until next spring and next fall. Planting soybeans and rice instead of cotton and more beans and rice on the market than usual will effect price. On a happy note farmers will be subsidies for their rice and soybeans.

Next subsidy to get hit CRP. Conservation Reserve Program or as I call it Crop Reduction Program paying farmers to sit on their butt in the coffee shop and not farm to keep commodity prices higher “Since 1985 it has cost the taxpayer an average of $1.5B per year.” “The House farm bill would allow payments averaging more than $1,000,000 to full-time farms over the next 10 years, leaving the average household with $4,377 less to spend, save, or invest throughout those years.”

Things are going to change. Massive debt, trade deficit, ect How ya gona call SUBSIDY BUSTERS. Something has got to give so cuts have to start happening.

 

[Show-me]

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Here is some nice projections from the USDA. CRP is also known as "Farmers retirement plan". They retire and put as much land as possible into CRP so that the taxpayer can pay them.


[*]Area enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is assumed to rise to 39.2 million acres from about 35 million acres currently. http://www.agweb.com/get_article.asp?pageid=115347&newscat=AW

 

[cowboy]

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Show-me wrote:

Here is some nice projections from the USDA. CRP is also known as "Farmers retirement plan". They retire and put as much land as possible into CRP so that the taxpayer can pay them.



[*]Area enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is assumed to rise to 39.2 million acres from about 35 million acres currently. http://www.agweb.com/get_article.asp?pageid=115347&newscat=AW

This is old new! This happened 20 years ago! This is why you have no young farmers. Besides that subsidy is the reason you have it. The author of this article is in a state where I doubt there is much CRP. It is also based on an economist in Washington on what he thinks is going to happen. Probably a person that knows nothing about what the farmer will do. They are ASSUMING something is going to happen. Besides that the economist that wrote this probably made mega bucks doing the little report. One thing I notice they are predicting many different things will happen in the report. Kind of like going to palm reader. They will project this and then only comment 3 years later on what came true in their prediction and you won't remember the rest.

I will tell you this. I doubt that CRP is going to rise as assumed by this article with the current farm program.

 

[Show-me]

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Just so that we are both clear the article was written by Pro Farmer magazine and the data is from the USDA dated February 2005. I would hope that both or at least one, Pro Farmer, would be on the side of the farmer. Ten different economic and farm agencies and boards contributed to the projections. I understand that the information on the link is not the opinion of the author but projections based on trends and world economic events viewed by the USDA.

In 2004 there was 2.11 million farms, 936.6 million acres land in farm, and 35 million acres in CRP and no young farmers. I don’t think so. Also a farm by definition is an farm that produces $1,000 or more and land in farm is crop land, grazing land, timber in grazing, wet land consv., and CRP. Approximately 293 million in crop land that means 1/8th of farm land is in welfare (CRP) . That’s not counting livestock operations.

Point is that 13.5 million acres of cotton are planted in the US that subsidy is going away or our good will be have a tariff on them by competing countries. What will our government do? End subsidies? Keep paying subsidies and the tariffs? I think the budget is in shambles and the gov. is looking for reasons to make cuts. Lower taxes I like but raise spending and the Medicare Rx plan don’t make any logical sense so someone has to pay. Farmers maybe?

 

[Show-me]

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Cowboy,

Part of the point of my rant is I don’t like paying people who can work not to. I see the poor, poor farmers in the coffee shops every day with the poor me song and dance. All driving new 4X4 or dulleys. The other point is I see what is happening to manufacturing job and why. CHEAP LABOR! This will eventually happen to the farmers in my opinion. That’s why Brazil went after the US cotton farmer thru the WTO because they know they can product crops cheaper than the US if the US doesn't subsidies the producers. Rice, beans, and wheat will be next.

 

[cowboy]

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I didn't say that the Pro Farmer was not for the farmer. What I want you to know is that if you think CRP is going to grow under this farm program as the Government wants youto think you could be wrong. First you say that CRP is a retirment program than you comment only 1/8 of farm ground is in CRP.I also want you to realize that according to the USDA your definition of family farm is not solely correct and doesn't even come close.If you believe a farm is only got to produce an income of $1000.00 you are totally wrong, a fruit farmer maybe. What your looking at is people like Juliane Johnston that are making a living off-farmbecause the CRP program put her there or the family is holding the farm andGrandma owns it. Last census shows that the main owners of real estate on farmswere widow women. The young that are farminggo deaply into debt to do it and mainly are renters it is highly dependent on how the year goesfrom year to year. Very little land owned by a young farmer. That or they are huge and just keep getting bigger year to year.

What happened to the freedom of trade act if there passing tarriffs?Farmers are getting paid now with a low dollar and also raking in the subsidies. Perfect time to jerk subsidies as farms are less dependant on the subsidy plus fewer people in the business.

There is not an industry that is not getting subsidized in some way. I realize the cotton farmer may be a concern to you. Did you know that the government did the same thing to wool. Two years later they came out with different programs to help the sheep man stay in business as suddenly the government realized the farmer was selling all their sheep. Now when he buys a ewe he gets paid $20 per head just to purchase it. Just because a farmer does not get subsidized does not mean he will quit raisingthe product.

Do you own CRP land? The $15,000 you mention as an average wouldn't even pay the fertilizer bill in April on someof these operations.I bet Iowa has very little in CRP. Are you thinking these cotton farmers are going to put their land in CRP? In order for land to meet the eleigibility Conservation Reserve Progam it needs to be highly erodible.

Farmers can now cover more ground and technology is so far advanced that it has taken alot of the labor intensity out of it. I quess I would rather see that farmer in the coffe shop spending than not at all.

 

[Show-me]

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The 1/8 of farm land that is in CRP I say farm it or let it sit fallow but don't pay them to do nothing. If its low productive land sell it or graze it don't pay them to do nothing. Plus in this area they put it in CRP and rent it to hunters. Productive land like in Iowa is just that PRODUCTIVE. They make more money farming it than in CRP.

The $15,000 is an average based on the amount of monies paid in subsidies and the number of cotton farms. Not a per bale or per acre don't have that info yet.

I don't think cotton farmers will put any of their land in CRP its to productive. My point was that those cotton acres will go to bean, corn, and wheat putting more pressure on those crop. Plus what ever subsidy the get for them. This will in turn put pressure on the farmer that is on poor soil to put what he can in CRP. Trickle down effect. If the WTO find that the soybean subsidies are unfair also that will lower the per/bushel price again making more farmer try to put land into CRP. Around here they farm every hill, ditch, slope, you name it. That land will likely qualify for CRP if it's still around. Its all mute if the budget is in the crapper because cuts will have to be made.

High labor issue is this, modernization has help the farmer tremendously but labor for the manufacture of chemical and equipment is high compared to Brazil and other countries. God help the farmer when the Chinese get there heads out of their butts and figure out that farming one 1000 acre plot is allot more efficient than farming 100 ten acre plots.

 

[cowboy]

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You just answered your own question on CRP why it will not increase. Productivity. One moment your saying the farmer is going to pay than the next your telling me it is too productive to be in CRP.Subsidy is only a portion of the income a farmer receives and they only receive it because the government can provide non-farm people with cheap food. You lose the subsidy, than government can not control price like they do now and suddenly the price gets higher cause of the cost it takes to raise it.Right now through the subsidy programs the commodities a farmer raises is priced by the government and if he sells below that price he can get what they call a deficiency payment that offsets the government price. If he reports timely he can get the deficiency payment and play the market with the commodity. But don't expect the markets to pay much more than the price set by the government unless demand drives it up.Farmers can getcheap short term loans on theircommodities also. For example: If they take a loan at $1.80 a bushel on corn and the market is only $1.65 when the loan comes due, the farmer can let the government take possession of the grain.

Farmers do not fallow that much anymore. It is all done with a no-till drill. Some will work spring crops in but fallow loses all the top soil. Thats what started CRP in the first place the big farmer or investorblew all of his soil off fallowing plus he was farming the government. I can show you fence lines covered in the late 70's & 80's from blowing sand when it was dry.

So when you seesome of your cotton farmers converting to Soybeans and corn expect to see morealcholic plants for fuel go up, to use this excess up. Don't expect all of these cotton farmers to do this as the cost of machinery will effect him also and you still will have cotton.

Actually farming in China will change andthey already know we have the technology and why shouldn't they want to produce more for their people. China and Japan have been coming here for years and looking at our technology. The Amercian farmer is just giving his food away. Their is no efficiency needed to farmlarger. The government told you the larger farmer was more efficient in reality it is not so and you bought into it. The larger farmer is not more efficient he just has a lower cost per acre input.

 

[Show-me]

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Again, I said that the cotton farmer would not put acres into CRP because their land is to productive. But, other row crops like beans and corn will feel pressure because more acres are planted in those crop driving the price down. If that happens more will apply for CRP because they are getting lower prices.

I realize that a subsidy is a portion of a farmers income and it is use to a point to control prices. Where does the money come from? ME! Why not let free market control the price of grains?

 

[cowboy]

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That will never happen because the land your talking about does not meet the CRP eligibility. Land valueand rent is too high and the government can't afford to match it. There is no land that is effectively producing corn and soybeans in CRP. If you look at other countries and the portion of money they use for food compared to the American, you will be glad you live here. The CRP is going to go down because all the highly erodible land that is in is now grass and a calf is bringing a lot of money because it is one product the government doesn't subsidize. We'll feed that grain.

Why not let the free market run your hospital and schools too why your at it. The next time you want that government grant or loanthat comes with all the attachments for a street or building, just say no. Where is this money coming from? Me!

Most farmers are hoping that subsidy disappearsas then the prices will go up. The investor thinks it is going to happen too, why else would they be buying land. Look at a box of cereal. Do you know how many boxes of cereal can be made out of a bushel of grain? Approximately 30 boxes. Do you know what the loan rate is on a bushel of grain. Todays loan rate is $2.69 a bushel on wheat, $1.83 on corn, $1.26 on oats, $4.54 on soybeans. So now look at that box of cereal for $4.50to $5.00 and tell me the farmer is taking you. There isn't even $.10of grain in a box. There is 8.6 lbs of milk in a gallon and the average farmer gets about$.13. Plus they skim the cream before they bottle it. You do the math.

 

[pogo]

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thank you cowboy !!!the farmer down the road Mr. Bringich who milks his three hundred and seventy-five head of dairy cows twice a day (by the way he is 69 yrs old and has two sons) hates subsidy he wants people like show-me to pay the full price and not the goverment to cut him a break. you think gas is high mr. bringich wants you to pay 5.00 dollars a gallonfor milk--if not go to brazil and get your milk ,either you pay in subsidy or you pay in high prices mr. bringich want you to pay higher prices. he does not want subsidies

 

[Show-me]

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cowboy wrote:

That will never happen because the land your talking about does not meet the CRP eligibility. Land valueand rent is too high and the government can't afford to match it. There is no land that is effectively producing corn and soybeans in CRP. If you look at other countries and the portion of money they use for food compared to the American, you will be glad you live here. The CRP is going to go down because all the highly erodible land that is in is now grass and a calf is bringing a lot of money because it is one product the government doesn't subsidize. We'll feed that grain.

Again, I said that the cotton farmer would not put acres into CRP because their land is to productive. But, other row crops like beans and corn will feel pressure because more acres are planted in those crop driving the price down. If that happens more will apply for CRP because they are getting lower prices.

How would you know if the land meet the CRP eligibility? Have you seen it? We live on clay with lots of washes and hills every where. Average payment here was $65.42 per acre with a national average of $46.68 per acre in 2003. We had 1.55 million acres in CRP in 2003.

Cheaper food have you been looking at Americans? Let the price go up maybe the line a the fast food joint will get shorter. Raise the price of milk and cream maybe people will eat less ice cream, sour cream, and butter. That would save us a ton in medical expenses. Diabetes, heart disease, obesity. Ya we need cheaper food bring it on I'll have two. Also banning cheaper Canadian beef and low carb diets have nothing to make your calf worth more? We cut our supply and the demand went up. Low supply + high demand = higher prices.

As far a the meat packer and cereal producer go's. Cereal your paying for packaging and marketing. Eat eggs and toast. When the price of hogs crashed a few years ago I did not see the price in the store go down once. So no matter what the farmers price is or what the subsidy is the middle man and the store will always make out.

Also I CHOSE to pay $5 for a box of Sugar Smacks if it to expensive I won’t buy it. I don't have a choice in the subsidy.

I agree that we will disagree.

Good luck this week.

 

[cowboy]

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Okay soyou won't be putting land in CRP but you think others will, because you will be planting a different crop! I think all you see is a nice subsidy price or else you are losing a government program that is out dated. You are expecting CRP to go up in other areas, where? All the poor ground that the big investor broke up in the 70's & 80's and convinced you to pay for, is just thatpaid for, or is being sold at inflated prices and is in grass buddy. They made their land payments and the US government bought it for them.

The only way you are going to get more land in CRP is to raise the rent the government is paying and WDC is too wound up with Iraq and defense spending to do it and has too large of a deficit. Which is heading us into a melt down.

Canadian meat is coming into the US daily.It is in the form of boxed beef. The big packingcompanies in Canada are making a killing off the Canadian farmer. I believe you could take the Canadian boarderopen itand it would be a pleep on the comodity radar screen.The low dollar heals the farmer as every time there has been a war the American farmer has higher value for their product.

I told you before the government supports the price of corn and soybeans it doesn't matter how much is planted as the farmer is quaranteed that price. The large farmer will come into your little cotton fields and swallow them whole and rent that land for $100 an acre.The US government does not support the small farmer, it wants them bigger.

You can play a spin off of everything, Like eat eggs and toast. Eggs they claim caused high colestrol and bread is the reason why you gain weight. Eggs are $.89 and bread is less than a $1. Sowhat your saying is that dairy products arethe cause of American obesity. You wouldthen convert to an alternative which has killed just as many. The truth to obesity is that the American society is damn right lazy and they don'twork out and burn calories. Your body is an engine and what you take in you need to burn. Americans don't burn it anymore.

The reason you don't see prices go downis the packager is taking an advantage of you and the farmer. Beef is up, did beef in your area go up?There is only so many packagers of beef controling the market. There is no competition and small operations they justuse the laws to drive them out of business.

What is your cousin the tobacco planter going to raise? Are we still supporting the tobacco industry.

 

[Show-me]

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Okay soyou won't be putting land in CRP but you think others will, because you will be planting a different crop! I think all you see is a nice subsidy price or else you are losing a government program that is out dated. You are expecting CRP to go up in other areas, where? All the poor ground that the big investor broke up in the 70's & 80's and convinced you to pay for, is just thatpaid for, or is being sold at inflated prices and is in grass buddy. They made their land payments and the US government bought it for them.

Missouri. We have a lot of highly erodible land. I fill my ditches with it every year. Are you implying there is no more land for sale?

The only way you are going to get more land in CRP is to raise the rent the government is paying and WDC is too wound up with Iraq and defense spending to do it and has too large of a deficit. Which is heading us into a melt down.

How about low per bushel prices? Higher energy, chemical, equipment, and transportation prices? Makes CRP at current level look better to a aging farmer?

Canadian meat is coming into the US daily.It is in the form of boxed beef. The big packingcompanies in Canada are making a killing off the Canadian farmer. I believe you could take the Canadian boarderopen itand it would be a pleep on the comodity radar screen.The low dollar heals the farmer as every time there has been a war the American farmer has higher value for their product.

Then why is there such a push, by farmers,to close the the border to Canadian beef, pork, and wheat. Must be more than a pleep on the radare screen to some.

I told you before the government supports the price of corn and soybeans it doesn't matter how much is planted as the farmer is quaranteed that price. The large farmer will come into your little cotton fields and swallow them whole and rent that land for $100 an acre.The US government does not support the small farmer, it wants them bigger.

Brazil's going after soybeans next. Be patent. Trickle down.

You can play a spin off of everything, Like eat eggs and toast. Eggs they claim caused high colestrol and bread is the reason why you gain weight. Eggs are $.89 and bread is less than a $1. Sowhat your saying is that dairy products arethe cause of American obesity. You wouldthen convert to an alternative which has killed just as many. The truth to obesity is that the American society is damn right lazy and they don'twork out and burn calories. Your body is an engine and what you take in you need to burn. Americans don't burn it anymore.

No you are spinning my point is that higher food prices my make people think twice about shoving so much food in their faces.

The reason you don't see prices go downis the packager is taking an advantage of you and the farmer. Beef is up, did beef in your area go up?There is only so many packagers of beef controling the market. There is no competition and small operations they justuse the laws to drive them out of business.

Agree on the packers. That was my point.

What is your cousin the tobacco planter going to raise? Are we still supporting the tobacco industry.

Now your going to start something. Why is it we outlawed three-wheeler atv's because kids where getting hurt but the gov. allow people to smoke and subsidizes the farmer. More making not sense. No wait LOBBYIST! They don't care about anyone but the bottom line. Why is it taking so long to get rid of something that we KNOW is killing people and raising the price of health care???

 

[cowboy]

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What I am telling you their isnot as much as you think going back into CRP unless it is those ditches you have full. Which than tells me it isn't worth the CRP rent the US is paying.

CRP to the aging farmer is an option not saying it isn't but you won't see it in CRP because land values are too high. Back 20 years ago we were depreciating, now were in real estate market that is or has appreciated. Old uncle Bob can sell his land for a 100% to 200% profit suddenly CRP is not an option or he can rent it out at a higher level than the government pays him.CRP has a dendancy to just up the rental rates in areas. If you offer some one $60 an acre to rent in that area will he do it? I don't think so. If you go into a government office the CRP or payments are supposed to go to the operator but in reality the owner controlsthe land. The land owner knows whatis receivedin payments and they will compensate the rent to their needs.

Farmers and Rancher pushed for the closure of the Canadian border because the Canadians were just like these other foriegn countries and did not follow the rules of trade. Truck loads of cattle were coming across the border with no shots no papers nothing to show they had a clean bill of health. The truckers were moving cattle out of Canada at about 10 loads a day down the Canadian highway to Nebraska. We went up to the border and stopped those trucks none of them had papers in order. Not saying that 70% weren't American beef in the first place. Then mad cow disease was found and US border patrolhad no choice. This is basically whatis happening in your cotton industry and I bet the government doesn't care.

Looksociety is asking the government to up security levels.The government knows it can't control security. But every big business smells the cash to be made. Look at your airports, they been living off of government subsidy for years.

Brazil has every right to do what it feels necessary to feed it's people. I don't have a problem with them growing soybeans.

It doen't matter what the price of food is you will eat it sooner or later to survive.

Thats all your agriculural government office is;is a paid lobbyist. Why you ask ? Because someone with connections is making money. Health care just a big spin to get you to buy into it. It makes a lot of sense to me and it is called greed.

I like visiting with you! As I feel Agriculture has a tale to tell and most of the American public doesn't have a clue about it. The government employee is just as guilty of taking money from the government as the farmer, same as the health industry and any city and whole bunch of industries. Yes the farmer will pay again he always has and history will repeat over again.

 

[Show-me]

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My main point is I don't like mytax dollarsgoing out to pay any subsidies let'em sink or swim. Airlines, railroad, agriculture, let the market determine the price. I guess we both will have to wait and see.

Good luck this week it may get interesting. Watch the dollar it really took another loss today.:^

 

[cowboy]

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So I take it your much happier with the new Tobacco Program. They aren't getting subsidized anymore. Their calling it transition payments over a 10 year period. How about that one. They don't even have to take the land out of production and their going to get paid for ten years. LOL! Big Tobacco companies sitting there need grass man!Lock in transition payment for ten years! Don't hurt no, Mr. Tobacco company he's going to buy the Tobacco and let you stillpay for it, again.

Tobacco grower not getting susidized maybe they will do the same for cotton.My point is everyone wants the other guys kick back cut, but don't touch theirs.

Here's one for Doc Dubious! The 2002 farm bill provided 15 million each year to operate what they call the Senior Farmers Market Nutrition Program. Under program they provide low-income seniors with coupons thatcan be exchanged for fresh produce it is expected this program provides help to 800,000 low-income people nationwide. Now thats cheap food ain't it.

This is only one of the programs that is done under the farm bill that everyone cries about you should not support. Are these poor seniors farmers? Most city people hear farm bill and they got a knife 10 inches long to cut it. My point isthe government will only paint the sidethey want you to see at a given time.I doubt there is very many industries that aren't getting some type of government kick back directly or in-derectly.

 

[Show-me]

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What I don’t like is subsidies. ][/size]I thought I made that very clear. Sit on your butt do nothing and get tax payer money. I don’t care if it’s CRP or the tobacco industry, it’s not right.

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[cowboy]

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Hey come on! Subsidies give everyone something to listen too! Hell we subsidize everything we can, it has become the American way. LOL!! I like it sitting on my butt and so does everyone else. Heck even horse hates work and turns his tail to it. Sure it's right. At least everyone knows the farmer gets subsidized, the rest of the industriesget subsidiesbut try to cover it up. Hell the big insurance companies are hiding behind the farm program and pass laws so you have to buy insurance. Why do you think they want the government to insure everyone it's the greed man.

I like bouncing things off of you Show-me and appreciate your opinion. Thats the fun part of the board. Did you read the articles on bickering in the other posts. My thought is if we don't have other opinions were not doing something right. Did you see Rolo's picture hell if I was Saraho I'd of run too. If your going to be in the markets you have to take heat it'll make you a better marketer.

 

[Show-me]

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We don’t all have the same personalities so you will always get different opinions. Some will be passionate, some passive, some will be jerks, and some hard headed. If we all had the same opinion what the sense of this board? We can all learn from each other and if you don’t like conflict ignore the instigator. I learn things from you and hopefully you may learn something from me. Just my opinion.
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