DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

Good morning, Here are charts before noon IFT cutoff. Best Wishes!

S fund was still looking like a buy with MACD crossing positive (slower indicator) but RSI has dropped to 68 (below 70) so that is a negative. Looks like wishy washy.

C fund - MACD still below its signal line. RSI has now dropped to 68.75 (below 70) and Stochastic still above 80. So that is a no for me to enter.

I fund - RSI dropped below 70 (no at 61) while MACD is oddly crossing up above its signal line (good). Stochastic still above 80 (good). Its not enough for entry with my strategy.

F fund is looking like a buy with all 3 indicators looking good. Kinda late to make move. Still traveling. Will see about tomorrow. This is supported by TNX.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Good morning, Here are charts before noon IFT cutoff. So it reversed yesterday to where indicators turned back up. Lovely!! Best Wishes!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Here are 5 minute charts.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Entering now --25%S fund, 15%C and 10%F fund. Hope this is not where we restart war with Iran. I am great at calling things like that. uggh.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Good morning,
Here are charts before noon IFT Cutoff. Looks like MOU with Iran will be a go--so hopeful market will continue its course. I will be adding to my position and reallocating some. Best Wishes! Hope you all have a great weekend.

S fund- all three momentum indicators are looking good. Price is pulling away from upper Bollinger band (thus small drop today) but Bollinger band mid-point still sloping upward. MACD is above its signal line. Will stay in but may reduce exposure to move some to C, F and I funds... Will see. Per Raven's crystal ball, F fund is going up.

C fund - looking better than S fund. Looks like it could run longer---nice and steady. Humm....will likely buy in more. Still have my 2nd IFT this month. Per Raven's crystal ball, C fund is going down.

I fund - RSI reversed and going back up towards 70 while other two momentum indicators, MACD and Stochastic, still above their signal lines. The Stochastic looks to be dropping a bit and will keep eye on it to see if it goes below 80. I will likely enter I fund a bit today. Per Raven's crystal ball, I fund is going down.

F fund - all 3 momentum indicators (RSI, Stochastic, MACD) still looking good. The price move upward continues to be supported by TNX. Will increase exposure to F fund today. Per Raven's crystal ball, F fund is going up.

Ravensfan's crystal ball is based on 10/20 MAs.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Decision to reallocate:
20S, 20C, 10-I fund,10F, 40G.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Good morning,
Here are charts before noon IFT Cutoff. All charts for TSP funds (S, C, I and F) still indicate upward momentum so I am not exiting. Best wishes to you all!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Good morning, I am exiting this morning. RSI has dropped below 70 on the charts and that is usually an exit for me---- WHEN I follow my strategy. The last time I did not follow that, I lost money as I tried to ride the downturn down and then up but ended up getting at the bottom of the downturn (too much for me). So, instead of letting that happen to me again, I am taking my lumps and getting the hell out. uggh

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Good morning, here are charts before noon IFT cutoff. Best Wishes!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Good morning, here are charts before noon IFT Cutoff. Best Wishes!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

So market has reversed. RSI went back above 70 for the S fund (whipsawed). For the next time, I am going to study pairing up RSI drop with another indicator before exiting. I am looking at price going below 18MA (mid-point of Bollinger bands as currently set) or a concurrent drop in Stochastic below its signal line. MACD is typically too slow to use for exit.

So, I am now figuring out how to tweak my methodology. But I am glad that I followed my current strategy. I made a small amount on this trade (+.09%) but definitely was not worth the risk taken as I was invested at 60% in S, C, I and F.

Earlier this year, I lost several percent because I did not follow my exit strategy and thus stayed in during a big downturn. After deciding to stick it out, my sticky pants lost their elasticity, and I just could not take the steep drop and so I screamed uncle to exit just before a turnaround. It was hard to acknowledge my mistake..

At this point, I still have an IFT to use to get back in this month and so will wait for another set up. In the interim, I am looking to pair a second indicator with RSI to hopefully prevent exiting too early (and to avoid the whipsaws). Kind of hard to do but looking at charts pretty intently to look at moving averages and momentum indicators that can better support an exit. While I think RSI is good for exits if paired with other information, I think RSI is not so good for entry (i.e. when it goes above 50) and I do believe that Stochastic going above its signal line to cross above 20 is best especially if paired with RSI going above 50.... and it looks like the 18-day MA (reflected by mid-point of Bollinger band on my charts) could also help. Ravensfan reminded me that Ira Epstein likes to use 18MA as line in sand, so going to consider that again.

Best wishes to everyone on your investments.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Good morning, I can't post right before noon cutoff so here are charts near the opening this morning. Best Wishes to you all!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Good morning, with the market fearing inflation due to good jobs numbers, the market is dropping some. S fund now has dropped below 70 on RSI (again) and MACD has started to form a "hump" rollover look as it starts to head towards a downward cross over. C fund now has all three momentum indicators heading down---RSI now joined by Stochastic (below 80) and MACD crossing its signal line to go downward. Same with "I" fund.

Best wishes to you all and hope you have a great and fun weekend!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Good morning, here are charts before noon IFT cutoff. Best Wishes!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi, here are charts just after noon IFT cutoff. I could not post earlier (medical appts). Best Wishes!

S Fund - reversed to go down after the noon cutoff today. (Thus the green circle before cutoff yesterday and red circle today). Stochastic and MACD have been an exit for (red circle for three days) so the price increase yesterday did not change anything for those two indicators (yesterday or today).

C Fund - has been below the RSI 50 line for some time and while the signal line went upward yesterday, it did not change the red circle for RSI. MACD has been red for 5 days while Stochastic has been red for 3 days.

I fund - continues downward. All three indicators (RSI, Stochastic, and MACD) were deflating for some time although RSI did go up yesterday but did not even get higher than the PINK dashed reversal line that has been drawn into that chart.

F fund - RSI started going up and reached 50 line (so I drew in green circle), but Stochastic and MACD have not crossed their signal lines to go up yet... though MACD is close. TNX is supporting increase in F fund.

It looks like the 48 day MA is not going to support the candles today as S and I fund have already broken through them.

I've often had thought that day traders play in morning and drive price up before they exit at noon, which then causes market to drop. Just a theory. Frequently cause reversals in afternoon which really stinks for those of us in TSP.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I remember reading (years ago) that the institutional investors (big boys) transact their massive investments in the afternoon. I thought maybe Coolhand indicated it happening at 1-2PM ET or maybe I just read it. I do believe that also has major impact on afternoon pricing and changes in market direction. We are at a huge disadvantage in TSP where we are required to put in an IFT and cannot change it after 12PM ET. So much occurs in afternoon and what looks like a great day (and major change in market) falls apart in the afternoon, and vice versa.

 

[TommyIV]

I remember reading (years ago) that the institutional investors (big boys) transact their massive investments in the afternoon. I thought maybe Coolhand indicated it happening at 1-2PM ET or maybe I just read it. I do believe that also has major impact on afternoon pricing and changes in market direction. We are at a huge disadvantage in TSP where we are required to put in an IFT and cannot change it after 12PM ET. So much occurs in afternoon and what looks like a great day (and major change in market) falls apart in the afternoon, and vice versa.

It's an interesting perspective from TSP investor's point of view. Today's volatility had to be warming up the blood of any investor watching. It even caused some to make TSP investment changes based on the morning market action. But as far as the price of any TSP stock fund, the price change was moderate at best and may as well traded flat all day.

However, that volatility itself may be a warning of future market action and let off the investor off easy today.