DOW CHART

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Is this eerie. I mention to Tom that this feels like 2000 again. Check out this chart. 2000 and 2004 started out great (then topped early - probably after IRA money hit the market) and then a tight trading range and then we nearly topped in August 2000, August 20004 feels like it wants to top out and then the shoe dropped in early 2001. This is an election year also....just feels like de ja vu. Hopefully we are not in store for a shoe dropping early 2005.

Also note (if you research) in bear markets, bull runs last 9-10 months on average the bull runMarch 2003 to January 2004was near that average. Also do not put your IRA money in the market early in the year. Wait until the middle of the year. The big guys just come in and knock your investment down with a little profit taking. We are learned (ha ha) to get your IRA money in ASAP when the new year starts. People (traders) take advantage of that. So do not pounce Jan 05 with your IRA/ROTH funding. But that is just my humble pie opionion.

Things that make you same HMMM.

 

[Guest]

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By Feb 10th of this year I had already earned about 8.5% for the year?

 

[Guest]

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and ifTom would of stayed in the G fund when he moved over 27 Jan 04 he would of made the call of the year....and life would of been a lot easier.

I went G fund 100% on 21 Jan and only popped over for a nibble on 13 Aug with 5% S, C and I funds. I will be going 100% G fund again on 2 Sep and leave the fun to you guys!

MT

 

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MarketTimer wrote:

and ifTom would of stayed in the G fund when he moved over 27 Jan 04 he would of made the call of the year....and life would of been a lot easier.

I went G fund 100% on 21 Jan and only popped over for a nibble on 13 Aug with 5% S, C and I funds. I will be going 100% G fund again on 2 Sep and leave the fun to you guys!

MT

Easy ain't no fun tho.You seem to know the exact date to get in and out, how do you do it pray tell?

Currently up 14.24% for the year btw. :^

 

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Oh, sorry for speaking in your account Tom...........:x

 

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Milk,

Like I said I watch the averages. The average bull run in a bear market is around 9-10 months. Once the market started pulling back in the third week of January 2004 I bailed out. 13 Aug Jim Cramer turned bearish (the guy that issued the ten stocks for the new millemum that dropped on average 90%) I turned bullish. When oil hit $49.25Cramer was calling for $60 and I sold my energy position. What he does, I do the opposite and it has worked out great for me. He got bullish on energy stocks June and I new the top was near on my only good sector (other then REITS) that I was able to go long on. My REITS on average are up 15% this year with a 14% yield.

I banked a gain of 25% on my energy holdings so I am up about 20-22% this year.

The new jobless claim reportand Walmart (the great indicator) saying sells are slowing, coupled with the inventory build has me concerned of upward movement in the markets.

But my 2 Sep call may be bad but I do not think so.

Good hunting!

MT

 

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I heard ya the first time. LOL But, I thought we where talking about out TSP funds? Only so many things we can do with them. I won't even talk about my personal stocks. Seems everytime I buy the price drops, and when I sell, the price goes up. Go figure!! I'll figure it out eventually. Right now I'm just scarfing up small and new companies and hope they hit the big time. I'm a gambler!! Better odds than Keno I guess, if you know what that is.

 

[tsptalk]

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mlk_man wrote:

Oh, sorry for speaking in your account Tom...........:x

Doh! I hadn't even noticed. I'll move this to Day to DayMarket Talk.

 

[tsptalk]

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MarketTimer wrote:

and ifTom would of stayed in the G fund when he moved over 27 Jan 04 he would of made the call of the year....and life would of been a lot easier.

If.

Actually I spent a lot of time in the G fund through April. As I mentioned in another post, I was actually beating all of the funds in June. The drop in July/August has been my down fall this year. I never had the gains this year that some have claimed. I would love to see some of you who have these big gains create an account as many have done already.The more the merrier. So far it seems like all of us who have documented are transactions herehave struggled the past several months.

 

[tsptalk]

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mlk_man wrote:

I'm a gambler!! Better odds than Keno I guess, if you know what that is.

Keno Talk.com anyone?

 

[Guest]

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LOL Tom. I could use it! I was blowing about $100 a day there for awhile..........

 

[Guest]

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Tom,

Partypoker.com is a great site. I play the free games and do fairly well. Have been "earning" about $150 a month on average but on a hourly average works out to like $3 an hour not a good investment.

You should read:

http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/default.asp?action=newsletterarchives

You bought into all these people bailing out on you. A lot of folks follow their buy and sell signals.

I am going to watch for their buy signal that normally happens late Sep early Oct and maybe take a nibble after I go 100% g fund on 1 Sep and try to get a little run and bail again prior to the election.

Good luck and happy hunting!

MT

 

[tsptalk]

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MarketTimer wrote:

Tom,

Partypoker.com is a great site. I play the free games and do fairly well. Have been "earning" about $150 a month on average but on a hourly average works out to like $3 an hour not a good investment.

I've been playing poker for 10 years. I have wrote before how I thinkmarket timing and poker playing are similar. You can beworst enemy. Attitude and learning how to deal with the bad times is what makes a long term winner in both the market and pokerin my opinion. There is some luck involved in both but that isn't what gets the money in the end.