Dagon's Account Talk

[Dagon]

I'm holding steady at my initial allocation of 10/10/30/20/30. Right now this is a long-term allocation. But if indicators come in I'll change. I'm comparing myself to the L2040 since that would have been my default.

My prediction is that the S&P 500 ends up higher today than where it began on Tuesday. I know its down .39% already, but that's just early trading blues. Should go up.

Since I'm new to TSP trading I have one really newbie question. If I put in a IFT before 12est today, that means that the transfer will execute based on the closing price of today? Thus, if I think that today's price of say the S fund was going to go up, I'd have had to put in my IFT before yesterday 12est?

 

[whitemingo]

Re: Dagon Account Talk

If you wanted to be in the S Fund today then yes you would have had to put your IFT in before 12:00 noon yesterday Eastern Time.

 

[Idaho Dave]

Re: Dagon Account Talk

That's exactly right. I hope you're as clairvoyant as some of the old timers on this board.

 

[Dagon]

Didn't go up today as much as I thought it would. But still a pretty good day for the S&P. Tomorrow it should continue to climb.

 

[Dagon]

Still holding steady. to misquote a movie 'we don't die we diversify'. In a market such as this I'm choosing to diversify. I think going all G is too safe and limits possible real gains. As a long term solution I don't think it comes out well. People are going to claim they can predict when it will bottom out. Fine. They can enter then. But I bet you that they'll end up buying some of these higher than I have.

 

[Guest2]

" I think going all G is too safe and limits possible real gains". As a long term solution I don't think it comes out well.

Dagon,,, (IMO) The G - Fund should not be considered "too safe" unless
you have the years ahead of you to recover from major corrections. If
your like me (limited time before retirement) one could be ahead of the
game by jumping to the Lilly Pad for safety during a Down Market. All the
while, keeping in mind that "you can't win if you don't play".

Currently, the C,S and I Funds average a loss of -8.456% combined for
2008. Bottom line: The "G - Fund" also limits "Real Loses" and should be
used as part of your arsenol of weapons against the evil empire.
May The Force Be With You ! :cheesy:

 

[Dagon]

I agree. I have about 30 years to recover from anything =p

 

[Birchtree]

Boy don't I wish I could start over with what I know now. Just keep plugging away on the accumulation end and you'll be well off down the road.

 

[Uptrend]

Can I start over? Dang, I would give anything to have 30 years to play!

 

[Corepuncher]

Since you two seem to be old hands at this, I could use some advice.

I seem to be cleaning up when it comes to playing these volitile times, but I where I messed up in the past was not getting back in when it was going up.

Last time, I got out on 7/27/06 (S&P 1263). I did not get in again until 7/25/07 at S&P 1518...and JUST in time for the big fall! I missed out on a 20% rally (net was I missed about 12% since I was gaining in G and F). I did however ride the fall all the way back up, and got out once Ben caused a rally. Since that time in September, I have now beat the S&P by 15%, so I guess I am making up for it. I just wish I would have not missed the big long rally.

I did not know much back then, but I have sure gained some experience now. Looking back, I should have gotten back in around 8/21/06 when we broke out of the 1280-1290 range. DUH! hindsight is 20/20 I guess. I just hope I am now experienced enought to see it next time.

I have about 30 years to go, so I'm sure I'll get better with time.

 

[Uptrend]

Corepuncher:

You missed a heck of a rally!!

IMHO, one of the best things you can do is watch the moving average cross-overs. The charts below show what I mean

View attachment 3308

You said you got out at 1263. You were probably fooled by the downtrend. I have the 20, 50 and 200 day simple moving averages all identified for this time period. When the 20 dma crossed the 50 dma, that was a buy signal, and when the 20 dma crossed the 200 dma that was confirmation! The 50 crossing the 200 going up is also important. The market took off on a rocket ride after that!

Now lets look at our current situation. See chart:

View attachment 3309

You can see in Nov 07 when the 20 crossed the 50 going down, that was a sell signal, and when the 20 crossed the 200 that was confirmation. Also notice when the 50 crossed the 200 going down, we really went down. Watch these and you will do fine!

 

[Tomncath]

SMA vs EMA. How different would the EMAs have looked?

 

[Corepuncher]

SMA vs EMA. How different would the EMAs have looked?

I think the EMA's are basically a quicker/more reactive signal than the SMA's.

Man, looking back at my moves in 2006 I sure was stupid! I remember at the time I had just gotten into moving my TSP funds around, and did not want to buy higher than when I sold because it meant I "lost"! LOL...my "loss" would have only been 2-3%! I was a true rookie at that time and as they say, "live and learn".

I think I'll be fine from this point on. I am lucky to have made it up. All that drama and my account is basically the same as if I was just a buy and holder the entire time!

 

[Dagon]

I'm glad I stayed in the market despite the drama. My market moves for indexes are mostly based on political-economic analysis. Since this is a major election year, you are going to hear lots of doomsday talk. You are going to hear talk of a recession and how life is over because of it. Well, recessions happen. They happen a lot. Government data is manipulated at times to make it look like it isn't happening. Its pretty easy for them to fudge the inflation % to ensure that GDP doesn't decrease.

But as anybody who has ever looked at a top stock or business earnings knows, things go up and down. The fact that there hasn't been more quarters of negative growth of GDP or no-growth of GDP should make one really question it. Further, GDP is a silly statistic. Its 'silly' because its not the best indicator of the state of an economy, and one can really (and should) question how its calculated.

So what does this mean? It means that playing safe in the market is a good thing here. I would say in a period of uncertainty, but we are always in a period of uncertainty. So as a data based, risk based, person I'd say that in this period of high risk if you try to time it a day ahead (as TSP basically forces us to do), you are going to need a program and obey it despite any near-term losses or gains (meaning no trades on a gut feeling, or because you can't stand to have some near term big losses). Because if you don't you are going to buy high and sell low too often.

I don't have such a plan. I don't have key indicators telling me if I should buy or sell. So I'm going for a low risk - medium gains solution right now, which means being fairly diverse, but not too much in the G or F accounts.

Pending the results of the new trading rule, I might end up paying for RevShark's information. I feel that over a 30 year lifespan, it will be better (not saying he'll still be doing it in 30 years!) than the L2040, and better than what I can do on my own. Even a difference of .50% pays for itself (again long term).