05/24/13
After a mini-crash in Japan's Nikkei Index on Wednesday night (US time) stocks opened sharply lower on Wall Street Thursday morning.
The Dow was down over 100-points in early trading, but buyers came rushing in again and by noon ET, we were seeing the Dow back in positive territory, and it closed down just 13-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 152"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0035%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-2.61%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The Nikkei opened higher in its Thursday morning trading, and was up about 3% when all hell broke loose and the index ended the day down 7.3%. That's the equivalent of an 1100 point loss in the Dow. This is what set the tone for the open for our markets.
S&P 500 fell through the short-term rising trading channel, which is important although we knew it was too steep to continue much longer. Now the question is whether this break means something, or if the rising trading channel will just widen, as we have seen a couple of times already this year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We finally saw a significant move in bullishness from the Rydex Fund traders. This Rydex Asset Ratio compares assets in bearish funds (bets against the market) plus money in Money Markets (basically cash) and divides that by the assets in bullish funds. The lower the number (in value - higher in direction on the graph) the more bullish the Rydex investors are.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
You can see that they have reached a level (0.27) not seen on the above chart at all, which goes back to mid-2010. That's a significant move, but look at this...
We haven't seen a reading near 0.27 since early 2001, just before a large sell-off. We were in the middle of a long bear market back then, but we also saw readings in that neighborhood in 2000 at the peak of the big bull market.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Here's a quick reminder of the historical performance surrounding Memorial Day weekend.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Today (Friday) has a modest positive bias while Tuesday has a modestly negative bias.
Thanks for reading! Enjoy your long holiday weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
After a mini-crash in Japan's Nikkei Index on Wednesday night (US time) stocks opened sharply lower on Wall Street Thursday morning.
The Dow was down over 100-points in early trading, but buyers came rushing in again and by noon ET, we were seeing the Dow back in positive territory, and it closed down just 13-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 152"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0035%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-2.61%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The Nikkei opened higher in its Thursday morning trading, and was up about 3% when all hell broke loose and the index ended the day down 7.3%. That's the equivalent of an 1100 point loss in the Dow. This is what set the tone for the open for our markets.
S&P 500 fell through the short-term rising trading channel, which is important although we knew it was too steep to continue much longer. Now the question is whether this break means something, or if the rising trading channel will just widen, as we have seen a couple of times already this year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We finally saw a significant move in bullishness from the Rydex Fund traders. This Rydex Asset Ratio compares assets in bearish funds (bets against the market) plus money in Money Markets (basically cash) and divides that by the assets in bullish funds. The lower the number (in value - higher in direction on the graph) the more bullish the Rydex investors are.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
You can see that they have reached a level (0.27) not seen on the above chart at all, which goes back to mid-2010. That's a significant move, but look at this...
We haven't seen a reading near 0.27 since early 2001, just before a large sell-off. We were in the middle of a long bear market back then, but we also saw readings in that neighborhood in 2000 at the peak of the big bull market.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Here's a quick reminder of the historical performance surrounding Memorial Day weekend.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Today (Friday) has a modest positive bias while Tuesday has a modestly negative bias.
Thanks for reading! Enjoy your long holiday weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
