Could the stock market effect the election?

[Griffin]

For weeks we have been hearing the conspiracy theories that the this rally has been sustained by republicans to bolster opinion on the economy leading into the election. Personally, I think that is garbage. Although the rally has been very timely and "the economy" appears to be the GOP's best selling point.

Now that seems to be in jeopardy....will it effect the election? could the left seize control of the senate as a result? I'd like to hear the boards opinion and thoughts.

 

[fedgolfer]

at first I thought it was mostly conspiracy theory, but when I heard several radio interviews in the DC area over the past several weeks of GOP candidates touting that that Dow was above 12,000 and the economy is strong under GOP leadership, I think its not so silly to make the connection. I think if the 20 day MA doesn't hold today, and the lower short term trend channel support line is broken after that, treading downward to the 50 day MA then that's a sign that Repub money is taking their short term profits thinking Dems will win the election.

 

[ayla]

I thought it was the other way around. Whether you are democrat or republican, I thought most acknowledged that tradition is that if the democrats win, the stockmarket goes down (for at least a short while) and vice versa.

This phenomenon may only apply to the presidential elections. I also would like to hear opinions from others.

 

[Griffin]

The tradition is that the left is not good for the market, in this case gridlock = goldilocks.

If the right is selling because they see a pending loss, and the left is selling to drive the market down in order to make a the economy appear worse, we could be in for a rough day. Are politics at work driving today's market? Could the next couple of days be an election predictor?

 

[fedgolfer]

The tradition is that the left is not good for the market

its more of a perception, but not reality, at least with Rep vs Dem Presidents... not sure of House/Senate control?

 

[Griffin]

its more of a perception, but not reality, at least with Rep vs Dem Presidents... not sure of House/Senate control?

Good point, there is a large portion of the market that does benefit from liberal control - especially telecom and I would expect tech as a whole as a derivitive play.

 

[Birchtree]

It's all basically Bulltinkey.

 

[nnuut]

Yep, the Dems are all selling to make Bush and the Donkeys look bad just before the election. I think that's streaching it a little to much, but you never know! ?? :worried:

 

[James48843]

Facts:
Stocks have done better under Democrats.

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/futureinvest/3022

 

[fedgolfer]

It's all basically Bulltinkey.

in the long run, i agree... if Reps or Dems take control, we'll still see the S&P vacillate in this trend channel that's been forming for the past few years unless rates get lowered... but I could be dead wrong considering the S&P broke out of that channel recently, although only temporary (IMHBUO... that's but unedumicated opinion).

 

[Pilgrim]

For weeks we have been hearing the conspiracy theories that the this rally has been sustained by republicans to bolster opinion on the economy leading into the election. Personally, I think that is garbage. Although the rally has been very timely and "the economy" appears to be the GOP's best selling point.

Now that seems to be in jeopardy....will it effect the election? could the left seize control of the senate as a result? I'd like to hear the boards opinion and thoughts.

Who could be doing this? Who really controls large enough blocks of stock? Pension funds? Mutual fund managers? Who are the unidentified, shadowy people who, on the one hand, control significant fractions of all outstanding stock and, at the same time, are willing to risk loss to move the market for political reasons? Who are they?

I don't believe a word of it. This is fear, rumor, and speculation all feeding on itself. Those who actually control vast sums are motivated entirely by the desire to make more. Complicated systems, even if all inputs are random, often present the appearance of purposefulness and Will. It's as if the market were a giant brain, with both a conscious and subconscious mind. The conscious is driven by greed and it is this side that we try to understand with analysis and indicators. The subconscious is as mysterious and difficult to capture as it is with individual people. When we cannot get our arms around it and explanations are lacking, conspiracy theories abound, attributing what we see to the conscious will and resulting actions of that mysterious "they."

 

[Griffin]

Facts:
Stocks have done better under Democrats.

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/futureinvest/3022

It seems unlikely that the parties themselves are manipulating the market. However, going into the election, we are dealing with perceptions not reality. In general, I would say the smart money is reacting to economic conditions, but the dumb money may be a different story. Last night, the talking heads were debating the political link.....could lead to a self fulfilling prophecy.

The volume yesterday was very high and today appears to be moving at the same pace, wether it's politically motivated or not. Lately, high volume has equated to red days.

 

[fedgolfer]

Who could be doing this?

I could offer several speculative theories but it would just be drivel... maybe the top two tax brackets, maybe oil money holding other equities, maybe the general population who gets pulled in and out the market based on fear and breakouts based on reports, data and whatever controlled by people in the top two tax brackets. I'm pissing myself off sounding all Oliver Stone... ha! Oh yeah... the smart money.

 

[James48843]

Black helicopters everywhere.

 

[James48843]

Note to self:

The "Black Helicopter Theroy".

When everyone is chiming in with their own "Black Helicopter" consipiricy theory, then it is time to buy stocks, as the next market move will be higher.

We'll see in the next couple days.

 

[Griffin]

I probably should not have started this thread with any mention of the conspiracy theories. The title was what I was after, NOT "could the election be effecting the stock market?"

Let's call the conspiracy theories debunked. However, does a few good days help one side or the other and vice versa?

Note to self:

The "Black Helicopter Theroy".

When everyone is chiming in with their own "Black Helicopter" consipiricy theory, then it is time to buy stocks, as the next market move will be higher.

We'll see in the next couple days.

 

[Griffin]

View attachment 1170

 

[Birchtree]

Them Dems are toast now. I hope that female in the middle is my sweet girl. 1Lt Buzz (nickname) is with the 25th Infantry. She has a 5 year degree in chemical engineering and is definitely a patriot.