Consumer Confidence

[tsptalk]

U.S. consumer confidence little changed in May

Consumer Confidence Index dipped to a reading of 117.2 this month, following a reading of 117.5 in April.

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-economy-confidence/u-s-consumer-confidence-little-changed-in-may-idUSL2N2NC1C8

 

[tsptalk]

Consumer Confidence


For: Oct |

Actual: 102.6
Briefing.com Forecast: 100.0

Prior: 104.3
Revised From: 103.0 --

 

[TommyIV]

Consumer Angst Is Striking All Income Levels​

The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Consumers across the board are growing increasingly cautious with their spending habits. News headlines and the uncertain, yet-to-be-realized impacts of the Trump Administration have left consumers bracing for potential economic challenges. Ironically, this hesitation to spend could itself contribute to an economic slowdown, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. For large-cap investors in the U.S., who thrive on robust economic growth, this shift toward conscious and deliberate consumer behavior poses a significant obstacle.

 

[nasa1974]

I took my 2013 Ford F-150 in for a checkup. Change oil light was on. The one guy I was talking with on my ride home said it's been really slow in the maintenance bays the last month as well as new car sales. He showed me the sticker price of a brand-new (on the lot) F-350 loaded. It was $104,000.00. I paid less than that for my first home and it's about a third of what my current home is worth.

 

[TommyIV]

I took my 2013 Ford F-150 in for a checkup. Change oil light was on. The one guy I was talking with on my ride home said it's been really slow in the maintenance bays the last month as well as new car sales. He showed me the sticker price of a brand-new (on the lot) F-350 loaded. It was $104,000.00. I paid less than that for my first home and it's about a third of what my current home is worth.

I doubt many people are buying those trucks outright, so your example makes me think fewer buyers are willing to take on big debt to finance something like that. And this is happening even with interest rates coming down from their highs. It feels like the uncertainty about where the economy’s headed is making people hold back — the self-fulfilling recession initiated by consumers.

If the message of the media was of optimism, the consumer may feel more comfortable do what he or she does, fuel the economic engine.

I'm not saying we should be blindly optimistic. I just think this is something to be aware of as an investor. If you read the article I posted, you'd see these retail companies are already feeling the shift in the consumer behavior. This will affect how much these companies will invest in their future and may instead cut some of their larger expenses to compensate, like their labor costs..

 

[tsptalk]

Consumer Confidence from briefing.com


Highlights

• The preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for March dropped to 57.9 (Briefing.com consensus 65.6) from the final reading of 64.7 for February, marking the third straight drop in sentiment.
• In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 79.4.

Key Factors

• The Current Economic Conditions Index dropped to 63.5 from 65.7. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 82.5.
• The Index of Consumer Expectations decreased to 54.2 from 64.0. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 77.4.
• Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 4.3% to 4.9% -- the highest since November 2022.
• Long-run inflation expectations increased from 3.5% to 3.9% -- the largest month-over-month increase since 1993.

Big Picture

• The key takeaway from the report is that the weakening in sentiment cut across groups by age, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions, with inflation concerns and policy uncertainty jumping out as key factors for the drop in sentiment.

 

[tsptalk]

Consumer confidence in where the economy is headed hits 12-year low

The Conference Board’s measure for future expectations tumbled 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years.

The board’s monthly confidence index of current conditions slipped to 92.9, a 7.2-point decline and the fourth consecutive monthly contraction.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/25/consumer-confidence-in-where-the-economy-is-headed-hits-12-year-low.html

From briefing.com

Consumer Confidence For: Mar
Actual: 92.9
B.com Forecast: 96.0
B.com Cons: 94.2
Prior: 100.1
Revised From: 98.3

 

[tsptalk]

Consumer confidence for May was much stronger than expected on optimism for trade deals

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www.cnbc.com

Briefing.com:

Highlights
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 86.0 in April (Briefing.com consensus 88.3) from an upwardly revised 93.9 (from 92.9) in March.

This was the fifth straight month that consumer confidence declined.

Key Factors
The Present Situation Index fell to 133.5 from 134.4 in March.

The Expectations Index slumped to 54.4 from 66.9 in March. This index sits at its lowest level since October 2011 and below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.

Average 12-month inflation expectations jumped to 7.0% from 6.0% in March. That is the highest reading since November 2022.

Big Picture
The key takeaway from the report is that the drop in confidence was guided primarily by the decline in consumers' outlook, which was driven by worsening views of business conditions, employment prospects, and future income. The drop in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups.