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chemmie's account talk
- Thread starter chemmie
- Start date
Medic72
TSP Analyst
- Reaction score
- 2
Excellent, i look forward to reading your thread!
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Wow Charles - getting 6.1% last year is outstanding.
Sounds like you've got a very good grounding.
I've looked into 'systems' and in fact was a devoted Ebb Chart System follower - and also was into Trader Fred for quite awhile.
Have only recently retired from the 'timing system' and decided to go High Risk and simply let Nature take its course. I may have been snowed - but a guy recently convinced me we hit THE LOW and I'm at peace with that. I also drink two large glasses of Birchtree juice every morning on a regular basis.
ANYWAY - WELCOME - and we all look forward to your insights.
Sounds like you've got a very good grounding.
I've looked into 'systems' and in fact was a devoted Ebb Chart System follower - and also was into Trader Fred for quite awhile.
Have only recently retired from the 'timing system' and decided to go High Risk and simply let Nature take its course. I may have been snowed - but a guy recently convinced me we hit THE LOW and I'm at peace with that. I also drink two large glasses of Birchtree juice every morning on a regular basis.
ANYWAY - WELCOME - and we all look forward to your insights.
Medic72
TSP Analyst
- Reaction score
- 2
justbizness45
TSP Analyst
- Reaction score
- 16
I'll throw in my welcome also. You have quite a resume and I am looking forward to reading your views on the market. If you also invest you can also check out Tom's other site ETF Talk. It's a relatively new site but a lot of good info is shared. Again welcome!!
KevinD
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 41
Welcome to the message board chemmie!
Question - Are the methods you use proprietary to the markets in general or specific to the TSP?
Looking forward to your input!
Question - Are the methods you use proprietary to the markets in general or specific to the TSP?
Looking forward to your input!
Kevin,
I am first and foremost a federal employee so I am all about using the TSP funds as the basis for my analysis. I apply my techniques to the best tracking fund/etf/index I can find as a good proxy with historical data readily available (i.e. S&P index for C, EFA for I, VXF for S, AGG for F). My timing system focuses right now on the S&P, but is applicable to all the funds as they are so incredibly highly correlated. I also track gold through the GLD. My main critique of the TSP (besides limiting our transactions
) is that we really do not have true diversification options..we basically have 2 choices (bonds, risk-free G or risky F as one choice and stocks C, S, I as the other choice). G vs. F and C vs. S vs. I is just about risk management and "leverage".
C
I am first and foremost a federal employee so I am all about using the TSP funds as the basis for my analysis. I apply my techniques to the best tracking fund/etf/index I can find as a good proxy with historical data readily available (i.e. S&P index for C, EFA for I, VXF for S, AGG for F). My timing system focuses right now on the S&P, but is applicable to all the funds as they are so incredibly highly correlated. I also track gold through the GLD. My main critique of the TSP (besides limiting our transactions
) is that we really do not have true diversification options..we basically have 2 choices (bonds, risk-free G or risky F as one choice and stocks C, S, I as the other choice). G vs. F and C vs. S vs. I is just about risk management and "leverage". C
Where I think we stand:
Trend following: I use the weekly time frame to determing the dominant trend. The C, S, I funds are all in confirmed bearish trends here. So, we have to be tactical and careful to maximize gains and minimize losses. On the daily time frame, we are in bullish uptrends for C, S, I from March 30 (I), March 27(S), March 30 (C). Interestingly, almost the same scenario as 2008 and that run lasted into mid May expiration. My instinct says we will retest eventually. The chart pattern from 2003 says we should too.
Trend following: I use the weekly time frame to determing the dominant trend. The C, S, I funds are all in confirmed bearish trends here. So, we have to be tactical and careful to maximize gains and minimize losses. On the daily time frame, we are in bullish uptrends for C, S, I from March 30 (I), March 27(S), March 30 (C). Interestingly, almost the same scenario as 2008 and that run lasted into mid May expiration. My instinct says we will retest eventually. The chart pattern from 2003 says we should too.
WorkFE
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 516
Chemmie,
Thanks for backing it up with something other than Bull & Bear $h!Y.
I am fully entrenched in the CSI and have made out well but I believe the party might be over after the first week of May. Chrysler news may push that timeline up sooner than I thought, unless the market already Baked in losing one of the Big 3 (Possibly 2):suspicious:
Thanks for backing it up with something other than Bull & Bear $h!Y.
I am fully entrenched in the CSI and have made out well but I believe the party might be over after the first week of May. Chrysler news may push that timeline up sooner than I thought, unless the market already Baked in losing one of the Big 3 (Possibly 2):suspicious:
I also look at a couple of ratios: VIX/10yr yield and S&P/gold as fear indicators. Currently, The VIX/10yr is in a downtrend meaning less fear which typically suggests higher stocks. The S&P/gold has just broken out to the upside in the last 2 weeks which would favor stocks over gold. I haven't done much historical backtesting on these so take it with a grain of salt.
Pschiffdicpal
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 3
so you think the fear # is 875 when the money will start to run, medic 72 would dump more if he had it, I cant say when..? the down will start, soon (maybe)bad news or world event or this new fake money finally runs out, I'm just working the old adage Buy low sell high, tread carfully protect your gains, I got out at 12% up went G to I fund 100% on feb 22 ( just going down the U)out april 7, total G since. didnt want to deal with reporting season.
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