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http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...nd-gold,-charles-nenner-says-yftt_470894.htmlOur guest Charles Nenner, a technical analyst and cycle watcher, sees more downside risk for oil to the $75.50/barrel level, and forecasts crude will be weak for the remainder of 2010.
What Is Charles Nenner, Godfather Of Cycles, Now Predicting For Gold & Other Markets? - Robert Edwards - Seeking AlphaThey are now looking for a bottom between now and September 2013 after we get through a minor top in mid July 2013. Gold will start up slowly but should return to the old high within the next 2-3 years.
"Now we're in a correction that will take until the middle of February, and then from there we go up again," as price-earnings ratios expand, he told Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview. "But we're going to make a major top this year, and we're going to get in trouble."
Meanwhile, commodities are in a bear market, he says. Nenner sees gold hitting a major low in July and then turning into a good buying opportunity.
Crude oil to $36.
Gold to start accelerating in Spring, final move to $2500.
Long VIX.
GDP cycles say heading into Recession.
Inflation is not coming.
I don't deal with theories, I just deal with what's going to happen --Nenner
Deutsche Bank is the canary in the coal mine? Nenner says, “Definitely. If DB goes, I don’t know what all the other banks are going to do. . . . It looks like DB can go to zero. . . . Next step is $3.90. If it goes to that, it’s finished.”
DB is just one big bank in deep financial trouble, and it’s much bigger than just DB. Nenner says, “Other banks are also down 20%. Italian banks are very important. What happened in Italy? They closed everything down. There is no fashion business anymore. There is no car business anymore. There is nothing going on. How do you think these banks are going to make it?”
Nenner says he is forecasting a banking crisis, and the tip of the iceberg is Deutsche Bank. Nenner says, “They are interconnected to all the other banks in Europe. I don’t know how the other banks can survive if this bank gets into trouble.”
"You should have been out in November, but you can use the bounce in the next couple weeks to get out."
The three cycles are all topping; topping just as they did in 2007. The Cycles are worse than in 2007-2008, the amount of downside in the last 4 months is the worst in 80 years; if this is the beginning, it can be a very bad time. There is a window of opportunity to sell into a bounce that appears to be imminent. Dr. Nenner recommended to exit the Bond market for the last 2 years.