05/13/26
We saw some selling to start the day on Tuesday after the price of oil spiked another 4% and the CPI data came in hotter than expected. Both sent yields and the dollar higher on the day, and that put pressure on the stock market. Not much changed during the day news or data-wise, but the dip buyers were ready and willing and they pushed the indices well off their lows.
The price of oil jumped 4% yesterday and the pennant formation is becoming more obvious and, coming off a rising trend, this could mean a breakout to the upside is getting more likely. Pennants also like to fake us out with a brief breakout in the opposite direction that it eventually ends up going, so they can be tricky.
Yields and the dollar rallied on that move in oil, but also the CPI report showed higher inflation than was expected. The 10-year Treasury Yield closed at its highest level of the year yesterday, and may be making a beeline to 5%. The 30-year bond yield did close over 5% yesterday.
The dollar jumped over its 50-day moving average, but it managed to close just below the descending resistance line. This move helped make the I-fund the lagging fund yesterday.
We nearly saw two more Hindenburg Omen Signals this week, but not everything was fulfilled to qualify. Despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both being one day off their all time highs, we saw more stocks make 52-week lows yesterday, than new highs. That's not healthy but the indices are being held up by a few names.
Four stocks – Alphabet, Nvidia, Micron, and Intel are responsible for 52.3% of the gains in the Nasdaq this year.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) had a really nice recovery yesterday, just a few hours after it looked like the bears were going to be able to do some damage. We still have the MACD (moving average convergence divergence indicator) negative divergence, but you can see that momentum is trumping any and all negative indicators at the moment. Strong momentum can make market timers look foolish.
I mentioned Micron yesterday and its parabolic rally in recent weeks that has led the Nasdaq higher - It was down 90-points at the lows of the day yesterday, then closed down less than 29 points, after it filled in Monday's gap and retraced last Friday's candlestick. The FOMO dip buyers are still working hard in these momentum stocks.
We will get the PPI inflation reports today. Sorry for the misinformation on the CPI report. I swore I had seen that both reports were coming out today. The PPI is a bond market mover so we'll see if it can do any better than the CPI did.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) pulled back sharply early yesterday but rebounded and created a positive reversal day. That was another test of the January peak, but the dip buyers are not allowing this chart to go down to fill those open gaps below. Again, the two recent negative outside reversal days is still in the picture as the index hangs around the same area of those reversals. New highs might negate them again.
ACWX (I-fund) took a hit yesterday with the dollar, yields, and oil prices surging. Yesterday's decline did help fill in one of the open gaps from last week, and that acted as support.
BND (bonds / F-fund) is heading toward the bottom of the blue trading channel, and with yields looking ripe for a breakout, the bottom of that channel here may be in jeopardy here as bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
We saw some selling to start the day on Tuesday after the price of oil spiked another 4% and the CPI data came in hotter than expected. Both sent yields and the dollar higher on the day, and that put pressure on the stock market. Not much changed during the day news or data-wise, but the dip buyers were ready and willing and they pushed the indices well off their lows.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
The price of oil jumped 4% yesterday and the pennant formation is becoming more obvious and, coming off a rising trend, this could mean a breakout to the upside is getting more likely. Pennants also like to fake us out with a brief breakout in the opposite direction that it eventually ends up going, so they can be tricky.
Yields and the dollar rallied on that move in oil, but also the CPI report showed higher inflation than was expected. The 10-year Treasury Yield closed at its highest level of the year yesterday, and may be making a beeline to 5%. The 30-year bond yield did close over 5% yesterday.
The dollar jumped over its 50-day moving average, but it managed to close just below the descending resistance line. This move helped make the I-fund the lagging fund yesterday.
We nearly saw two more Hindenburg Omen Signals this week, but not everything was fulfilled to qualify. Despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both being one day off their all time highs, we saw more stocks make 52-week lows yesterday, than new highs. That's not healthy but the indices are being held up by a few names.
Four stocks – Alphabet, Nvidia, Micron, and Intel are responsible for 52.3% of the gains in the Nasdaq this year.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) had a really nice recovery yesterday, just a few hours after it looked like the bears were going to be able to do some damage. We still have the MACD (moving average convergence divergence indicator) negative divergence, but you can see that momentum is trumping any and all negative indicators at the moment. Strong momentum can make market timers look foolish.
I mentioned Micron yesterday and its parabolic rally in recent weeks that has led the Nasdaq higher - It was down 90-points at the lows of the day yesterday, then closed down less than 29 points, after it filled in Monday's gap and retraced last Friday's candlestick. The FOMO dip buyers are still working hard in these momentum stocks.
We will get the PPI inflation reports today. Sorry for the misinformation on the CPI report. I swore I had seen that both reports were coming out today. The PPI is a bond market mover so we'll see if it can do any better than the CPI did.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) pulled back sharply early yesterday but rebounded and created a positive reversal day. That was another test of the January peak, but the dip buyers are not allowing this chart to go down to fill those open gaps below. Again, the two recent negative outside reversal days is still in the picture as the index hangs around the same area of those reversals. New highs might negate them again.
ACWX (I-fund) took a hit yesterday with the dollar, yields, and oil prices surging. Yesterday's decline did help fill in one of the open gaps from last week, and that acted as support.
BND (bonds / F-fund) is heading toward the bottom of the blue trading channel, and with yields looking ripe for a breakout, the bottom of that channel here may be in jeopardy here as bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Updated monthly:
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
