05/01/13
Stocks rallied again yesterday as the Dow gained 21-points, but the broader indices saw even larger gains. I have sure used the word 'resilient' a lot this year. Here it is again.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 155"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.65%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Here are the final TSP Fund returns for the month of April, and another good month it was.
The S&P 500 has closed up 7 of the last 8 days. The 50-day EMA was tested and held two weeks ago, and it has been bounce-city ever since. When will some of us learn? The dip buyers have stepped up near support every time this year. Of course we know it won't last forever, but the bears must be feeling a little despondent at this point. I know I am. And that is probably the emotion we need to see to get those hold out bears to buy and finally get a meaningful pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
There's not much more to say except the trend is intact, the bulls are in charge, but the indices are overbought and fairly extended.
According to sentimenTrader.com: "Total assets in U.S.-based stock mutual funds increased by nearly $200 billion, and another $32 billion went into exchange-traded funds.
"Ultra-safe money market funds, however, suffered an outflow of $52 billion as low interest rates and a booming stock market prompt investors to shift their focus elsewhere.
"Total assets in stock funds now amount to more than 3.31 times the amount of assets in money market funds, which is bumping up against the previous extremes we saw in the spring of 2006 and again in the spring of 2007."
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
They go on to say that nothing is to stop that ratio from going to 4 or 5 to 1, particularly since the sample size is so low, but this 3.0 to 3.5 area has held for the last 20+ years.
The dollar has now made a lower low and is now testing the 200-day EMA. Was this the start of a break down, or is this another wedge pattern setting up for a fake-out / breakout?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bond prices continue to hang around the recent highs and is testing the rising support line for a second time in a week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I would expect bonds to break to new highs when stocks pullback, or break below support if stocks break into another leg higher. The fact that both are near highs is unusual.
FOMC meeting wraps up today and the policy statement announcement is usually at 2:15 PM ET. After last month's weak jobs report and GDP numbers, I don't expect the Fed to do anything that would adversely affect the economy. It will be easy money for quite a while. And we wonder why stocks keep going higher?
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rallied again yesterday as the Dow gained 21-points, but the broader indices saw even larger gains. I have sure used the word 'resilient' a lot this year. Here it is again.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 155"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.65%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Here are the final TSP Fund returns for the month of April, and another good month it was.
The S&P 500 has closed up 7 of the last 8 days. The 50-day EMA was tested and held two weeks ago, and it has been bounce-city ever since. When will some of us learn? The dip buyers have stepped up near support every time this year. Of course we know it won't last forever, but the bears must be feeling a little despondent at this point. I know I am. And that is probably the emotion we need to see to get those hold out bears to buy and finally get a meaningful pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
There's not much more to say except the trend is intact, the bulls are in charge, but the indices are overbought and fairly extended.
According to sentimenTrader.com: "Total assets in U.S.-based stock mutual funds increased by nearly $200 billion, and another $32 billion went into exchange-traded funds.
"Ultra-safe money market funds, however, suffered an outflow of $52 billion as low interest rates and a booming stock market prompt investors to shift their focus elsewhere.
"Total assets in stock funds now amount to more than 3.31 times the amount of assets in money market funds, which is bumping up against the previous extremes we saw in the spring of 2006 and again in the spring of 2007."
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
They go on to say that nothing is to stop that ratio from going to 4 or 5 to 1, particularly since the sample size is so low, but this 3.0 to 3.5 area has held for the last 20+ years.
The dollar has now made a lower low and is now testing the 200-day EMA. Was this the start of a break down, or is this another wedge pattern setting up for a fake-out / breakout?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bond prices continue to hang around the recent highs and is testing the rising support line for a second time in a week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I would expect bonds to break to new highs when stocks pullback, or break below support if stocks break into another leg higher. The fact that both are near highs is unusual.
FOMC meeting wraps up today and the policy statement announcement is usually at 2:15 PM ET. After last month's weak jobs report and GDP numbers, I don't expect the Fed to do anything that would adversely affect the economy. It will be easy money for quite a while. And we wonder why stocks keep going higher?
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
