05/11/26
Good news, bad news, yields up, yields down, overbought, oversold, it doesn't seem to matter recently - stocks are still moving higher. Even $95 oil can't stop the momentum that the stock market has right now, but how long can it last?
The April Jobs Report came out on Friday beating estimates with 115,000 new jobs created, and an unemployment rate of 4.3% which was inline.
Surprisingly, Treasury Yields went lower after this jobs data, not something we'd expect, but the bond market has been more concerned with the price of oil lately, and oil was down slightly on the day, although still elevated, as is the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note. The 10-year chart has a Cup and Handle Formation which is considered bullish (for yields) and at some point higher yields should concern the stock market, but perhaps oil is trying to peak, which could push yields down? Sounds right but that's not what this chart is saying.
And here's the price of oil, which was down slightly on Friday but remains at a lofty $95 a barrel. This chart is trying to hold at the 50-day moving average, which has been holding for several months, but this head and shoulders pattern, with a head test, could be telling us oil may going lower. But that 50-day average will have to break first.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) has been moving higher almost daily since the lows at the end of March. It is likely due for some kind of pullback or consolidating, but I've said that for a while now, and the train keeps a roll'in. I do see the MACD indicator is showing a blatant negative divergence in recent weeks.
The S&P 500 keeps moving up while the MACD Histogram has been drifting low since its peak April 20.
The Dow Transportation index is still battling some overhead resistance and is badly lagging the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. Considered a market leader, I am surprised we're not hearing more about this. The Transports bottomed on March 13 and then peaked 27 trading days later.
Just for fun, I see that the S&P 500 bottomed on March 30, a couple of weeks after the Transports' low, and Friday's new high made it 28 trading days off that March 30 low.
It could be all about that strange trade in Avis (CAR) in April, but UPS and FedEx are also giving it trouble. Something to keep an eye on.
As I have said before, I am not bearish on stocks this year, but in the short-term... I feel the risks are rising for some king of pullback. And, according to this chart from @WayneWhaley1136 on X, this could be the week, although I heard that one before.
Since 1950, this week struggled if there was new high for the year made in the first week of May.
We will get both the CPI and PPI inflation reports on Wednesday of this week.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) hit new highs last week and the chart looks great except for the negative reversals and negative outside reversal days. The most recent reversal did fill in a gap and stopped going down, but this is now three of these in a short period of time and I see it as a warning.
ACWX (I-fund) made new highs last week after trailing the US indices for a couple of weeks. The falling dollar has helped here, and the price of oil falling has helped the dollar move lower. Thursday's sell off action was interesting, and probably not meaningless.
BND (bonds / F-fund) can't seem to shake this wedge formation. There is probably a big move coming in one direction or the other, but for now, it is in a range.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Good news, bad news, yields up, yields down, overbought, oversold, it doesn't seem to matter recently - stocks are still moving higher. Even $95 oil can't stop the momentum that the stock market has right now, but how long can it last?
| Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns |
The April Jobs Report came out on Friday beating estimates with 115,000 new jobs created, and an unemployment rate of 4.3% which was inline.
Surprisingly, Treasury Yields went lower after this jobs data, not something we'd expect, but the bond market has been more concerned with the price of oil lately, and oil was down slightly on the day, although still elevated, as is the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note. The 10-year chart has a Cup and Handle Formation which is considered bullish (for yields) and at some point higher yields should concern the stock market, but perhaps oil is trying to peak, which could push yields down? Sounds right but that's not what this chart is saying.
And here's the price of oil, which was down slightly on Friday but remains at a lofty $95 a barrel. This chart is trying to hold at the 50-day moving average, which has been holding for several months, but this head and shoulders pattern, with a head test, could be telling us oil may going lower. But that 50-day average will have to break first.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) has been moving higher almost daily since the lows at the end of March. It is likely due for some kind of pullback or consolidating, but I've said that for a while now, and the train keeps a roll'in. I do see the MACD indicator is showing a blatant negative divergence in recent weeks.
The S&P 500 keeps moving up while the MACD Histogram has been drifting low since its peak April 20.
The Dow Transportation index is still battling some overhead resistance and is badly lagging the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. Considered a market leader, I am surprised we're not hearing more about this. The Transports bottomed on March 13 and then peaked 27 trading days later.
Just for fun, I see that the S&P 500 bottomed on March 30, a couple of weeks after the Transports' low, and Friday's new high made it 28 trading days off that March 30 low.
It could be all about that strange trade in Avis (CAR) in April, but UPS and FedEx are also giving it trouble. Something to keep an eye on.
As I have said before, I am not bearish on stocks this year, but in the short-term... I feel the risks are rising for some king of pullback. And, according to this chart from @WayneWhaley1136 on X, this could be the week, although I heard that one before.
Since 1950, this week struggled if there was new high for the year made in the first week of May.
We will get both the CPI and PPI inflation reports on Wednesday of this week.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) hit new highs last week and the chart looks great except for the negative reversals and negative outside reversal days. The most recent reversal did fill in a gap and stopped going down, but this is now three of these in a short period of time and I see it as a warning.
ACWX (I-fund) made new highs last week after trailing the US indices for a couple of weeks. The falling dollar has helped here, and the price of oil falling has helped the dollar move lower. Thursday's sell off action was interesting, and probably not meaningless.
BND (bonds / F-fund) can't seem to shake this wedge formation. There is probably a big move coming in one direction or the other, but for now, it is in a range.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Updated monthly:
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
