C Fund Link

[Show-me]

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http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=GE%2c+MSFT%2c+XOM%2c+PFE%2c+WMT%2c+INTL%2c+AIG%2c+CSCO%2c+IBM%2c+C

The top 10 holdings as per TSP site. 22.72% of the Fund.

 

[Guest]

imported post

Thanks Show-me

 

[Timer]

imported post

Show-me, just so I understand, these 10 stocks represent 22.72% of theCfund? Thanksin advance.

 

[Show-me]

imported post

Timer wrote:

Show-me, just so I understand, these 10 stocks represent 22.72% of theCfund? Thanksin advance.

Yes. Right off the TSP Fact Sheet.

 

[vectorman]

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[Birchtree]

80% Golden

As of last Friday, 337 coimpanies on the S&P 500 index had reported earnings. Of these 65% surpassed analyst expectations, 15% matched Wall Street estimates, and 20% missed. At this time, the growth rate for the broad gauge's fourth quarter stands at 14.9%, above the 13.8% that was expected the week before. This week 47 S&P companies will announce quarterly results along with two Dow components. These companies have also been dutifully purchasing their own stock now for seceral years - may continue to help earnings comparisons even in a slow GDP. No bears here yet to worry about.

Dennis

 

[Birchtree]

Google into the S&P 500 index - maybe.

There was a period back in the late 1990s where the S&P was putting in many of the dot-com era names. Some have now been removed, or are down 90%. If you look at the constituents of the Dow, none really was caught up in the dot-com era. And the Dow never had an Enron or a WorldCom.

The result: When technology stocks were soaring in the late 1990s, the S&P 500 generally was outpacing the Dow industrials. The S&P 500 rose 27% in 1998, compared with 16% for the industrial average. During the main market boom, from 1995 through the indexes' highs in 2000, the S&P 500 rocketed 233%, while the industrials soared 206%.

But after the bubble popped, the S&P 500 slid 49% before it bottomed out in October 2002. The Dow industrials tumbled 38%. Little wonder that the Dow has gotten back within range of its record faster than the S&P 500.

The S&P 500 includes almost every big company investors have heard of - 500 of them. All the Dow components are in the S&P 500. Because some S&P 500 companies are acquired every year or suffer sudden declines, trhe S&P 500's makeup changes several times a year. And its calculation is the opposite of the Dow industrials'. The index is meant to reflect the value of the overall big-stock market, so moves in each stock are weighted to reflect the camoany's market value.

What does that mean? The S&P 500 tracks market quirks much more closely than the industrial average. The Dow is the tortoise to the S&P's hare. The comparison between the Dow and the S&P 500 is instructive. The S&P 500 outpaced the industrial average in the late 1990s and has done so since the bull market began in 2002. This year, the industrial average is up about 1%, compared with 4.6% for the S&P 500. General Motors and IBM have weighed on the industrial average, and 14 of its 30 components are down for the year so far.

But taken over the whole period since the start of 1995, the Dow is the winner, rising 184%, compared with 176% for the S&P 500. The Dow's resilience in the bear market made up for the S&P 500's greater strength when stocks were booming. That race went to the tortoise.

The Dow needs about 10% to surpass its record of 11722.98 set in January 2000, almost six years ago.

The S&P 500 would have to advance more than 20% to return to its record of 1527.46 reached in March 2000. I think it will rock to the top.

 

[The_Technician]

Could help

but notice that 52% of the S&P companies are below the 50 day average....its been going down since around 23 Jan.....was in or around 65.....

It has a steady and deliberate drop in the curve as it goes day by day....see for yourself at this site.....

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?$spxa50r

 

[Birchtree]

Ready for a nice rebound

The Technician,

Looks fine from my perspective - just a normal give back correction of the move up from the October lows. My thinking is that the October lows may have in fact been the 4-year cycle low - only a year ahead of schedule. That could actually mean clear sailing into 2008. All it requires is courage of the conviction - today was hit the target day in the energy patch. Gotta stay in until the lady sings. Thanx for the graph looksie. We are all here to help each other in our own small way. Hope the Wizard returns - I like his perspective as well as yours. Take care.

Dennis

 

[The_Technician]

Wish I could

share your thoughts about the low there Birchy.....but I have never seen a low last only a month or so.....when they go, they generally go down for a year or 2 and then they will drop 40-50%....October was hardly a nick in the old move up......

given the economics are hitting the wall with inflation and energy and interest rates kicking us in the teeth, I would expect some consequence from those facts....

Good luck staying long Birchy, you need to flex up some though in my view....

 

[dell]

12 Cents

Did the C Fund pick up 12 cents today?

 

[Birchtree]

Set to be looking down

Dell,

Was hoping I could see $13.50 for a nice dollar cost average - may have to wait longer now - if I miss the opportunity in the next seven trading days then it's chauked up as a sacrifice. $14.00 makes the overall balance look better - but since I'm so close at this level with the balance down, go ahead and give me my shares C fund.

 

[Birchtree]

Setbacks - not many

Consider that during the roaring market advance of 1995 - 1999 there were five pullbacks of 10% or greater in the S&P index, one each in 1996, 1998, and 1999, and two in 1997. The bullish view of the recent lack of broad market dips is that it's a sign of underlying strength of the advance. The S&P 500 index had two pull backs last year that were little more than blips. (painful though they were). The worst was a drop of 7.2% between 3/7 and 4/20/05. The S&P 500 hasn't suffered a decline of 10% or more in three years.

 

[yakers]

Consider that during the roaring market advance of 1995 - 1999 there were five pullbacks of 10% or greater in the S&P index, one each in 1996, 1998, and 1999, and two in 1997.

Well, I'm not much for market timing but if you have a strong sense that there is only a temporary pull back in the S&P (or any part of the market) then that certainly is the time to buy. Sort of hard mentally to buy when the market is headed down but can be the better thing to do, especially over time. I DCA at a constant rate and that works pretty well but friends who buy stocks have done pretty well buying on the dips except for tech stocks on the 2000 NASDAQ

 

[Birchtree]

Yakers,

Please be sure to read the recommended reading that Mlk-man posted - it is very interesting. Just another strategy available to make money or accumulate shares.

 

[Rod]

Sticking to our guns paid off.

Give yerself a good ole pat on the back.

 

[Birchtree]

S&P 500 at 1305 is a conservative target

The SPX breadth MCO is on a solid buy signal now. TSPgo was correct. Wth this new impulsive move on the SPX breadth MCO this week, we now have the SPX breadth MCSUM moving higher after recently testing its zero line - this is a highly bullish longer term event. And as long as the SPX breadth MCO now remains above the zero line, the path of least resistance will remain higher until proven otherwise. The OEX or the S&P 100 index is also in an upside bias. Rocking really.

 

[Birchtree]

If we see SPX at 1330, then 1382 is next, then

how long until 1527.46? Financials will help.

From Merrill - David Rosenberg - North American Economist

"As the year progresses, expect short term rates to decline, longer term rates to stay flat or move slightly higher, and spreads to widen. History shows that has been a good climate for financial stocks. Another plus: the sector's valuation is below its longer-term average and near the low end of its historical range at a time when earnings forecasts for many financial companies could prove to be too conservative".

The S&P 500 has a 21% component financial position and that bodes well for the sector and the market as a whole, making it another reason to stay with the growth theme.

And not to be forgotten - the I fund has 24.8% financials.

 

[Birchtree]

It won't be long before a penny is worth a nickle

Perhaps because the current environment for commodities is quite speculative, the materials sector has been the best performing sector in the S&P 500 during the past six months. It has risen by 25% or so, about 50% more than telecom, the runner-up. In my opinion, the current benign inflation situation cuopled with interest rate normalization can sustain the "Goldilocks" global economy. It's time for the financials to start kicking in to help - or the SPX will never get to 1500.

 

[Birchtree]

Who has the money Honey?

The industrial companies that make up the S&P 500 index - which excludes financial, transportation and utility companies - have a staggering $643 billion in cash and equivalents. Wall Street analyst remain unsure how companies will spend this record hoard. Even an unprecedented $500 billion of stock buybacks over the past six quarters have failed to stop companies from building lofty amounts of cash on hand.

Companies began propping up their reserves through 16 straight quarters of double-digit profit growth. The money tucked away in corporate coffers has now gotten to the point where it's having a major impact on quarterly earnings, with S&P reporting that income earned on interest rose 37.9 percent in 2005 and is expected to increase another 64 percent this year. Coincidentally, the same Federal Reserve that spooked the markets with 16 straight interest rate hikes has actually been doing these big companies a favor. The increase in rates helped companies grow through higher interest payments.

Leading the pack with the most cash is Exxon Mobil which has about $36.55 billion in cash. That amount is nearly equal to its 2005 profit of $36.13 billion, the highest ever for a U.S. company. We are in a time that is out of whack with all historical numbers - what are they going to do with all that cash? My guess is the M&A business will pick up. Maybe more expansion into Russia and China along with India. The investing world is wide open.