11/02/12
Stocks rallied yesterday mainly because of some better than expected economic data. Consumer Confidence was up and the ADP jobs report indicated that 158,000 jobs were created in October, while estimates were 143,000. When the market gets more than what it's expecting, it is usually very happy. The Dow was happy and up 136 points.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0036%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.60%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.61%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The ADP numbers are calculated differently than the important jobs report we get today, but obviously investors were OK with the ADP. Today's (Friday) jobs report is looking for a gain of about 125,000 jobs in October, and an unemployment rate of 7.9% - a slight increase above September's 7.8%.
Update: Jobs report came in with 171,000 jobs created and an unemployment rate of 7.9%.
The S&P 500 broke sharply to the upside of the narrow trading range we had seen over the last several trading days, but it is now testing the 20 and 50-day EMA's and the resistance created by connecting recent highs and lows, which actually goes back to early April.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The seasonality chart hinted it could be a good day and the S&P 500 has started off November with a 1% or larger gain 17 other times. Of those, it showed a gain for the entire month of November 14 times. The three losses were -1.1% (in 1946), -1.1% (1956) and -8.6% (1987).
The Nasdaq rallied 1.4% but remains in a downtrend. The test will be in the 3040 - 3050 area where the moving averages meet the top of the descending resistance line.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Small caps are in a similar situation, and there is an open gap on the Russell 2000 which will add to both the possibility of a test of the top of the descending trading range, and the possibility that it could be resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market leading Dow Transportation Index continues to live in its own Private Idaho - remaining in the trading range between 4900 and 5200+ going back to April / May. The possible higher low looks positive, but that overhead resistance will be the story.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
After enough tests, either the top or the bottom is going to have to give, and if you recall, I posted a monthly chart of the Transports a while back and the long-term chart looked extremely positive so perhaps it will eventually break to the upside.
In the meantime, jobs reports, elections, and fiscal cliffs are in the headlines and the short-term is a little more fuzzy.
The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 60% bulls, 30% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 2.00 to 1. That is a Sell signal which means the system will move to a 100% G fund allocation for the week of 11/05/12 - 11/09/12.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rallied yesterday mainly because of some better than expected economic data. Consumer Confidence was up and the ADP jobs report indicated that 158,000 jobs were created in October, while estimates were 143,000. When the market gets more than what it's expecting, it is usually very happy. The Dow was happy and up 136 points.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0036%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.60%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.61%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The ADP numbers are calculated differently than the important jobs report we get today, but obviously investors were OK with the ADP. Today's (Friday) jobs report is looking for a gain of about 125,000 jobs in October, and an unemployment rate of 7.9% - a slight increase above September's 7.8%.
Update: Jobs report came in with 171,000 jobs created and an unemployment rate of 7.9%.
The S&P 500 broke sharply to the upside of the narrow trading range we had seen over the last several trading days, but it is now testing the 20 and 50-day EMA's and the resistance created by connecting recent highs and lows, which actually goes back to early April.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The seasonality chart hinted it could be a good day and the S&P 500 has started off November with a 1% or larger gain 17 other times. Of those, it showed a gain for the entire month of November 14 times. The three losses were -1.1% (in 1946), -1.1% (1956) and -8.6% (1987).
The Nasdaq rallied 1.4% but remains in a downtrend. The test will be in the 3040 - 3050 area where the moving averages meet the top of the descending resistance line.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Small caps are in a similar situation, and there is an open gap on the Russell 2000 which will add to both the possibility of a test of the top of the descending trading range, and the possibility that it could be resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market leading Dow Transportation Index continues to live in its own Private Idaho - remaining in the trading range between 4900 and 5200+ going back to April / May. The possible higher low looks positive, but that overhead resistance will be the story.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
After enough tests, either the top or the bottom is going to have to give, and if you recall, I posted a monthly chart of the Transports a while back and the long-term chart looked extremely positive so perhaps it will eventually break to the upside.
In the meantime, jobs reports, elections, and fiscal cliffs are in the headlines and the short-term is a little more fuzzy.
The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 60% bulls, 30% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 2.00 to 1. That is a Sell signal which means the system will move to a 100% G fund allocation for the week of 11/05/12 - 11/09/12.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
