Boxkicker's Account Talk

[Boxkicker]

I am here for the long term, going for 2034. I don't have any real financial experience and only a very general understanding of the markets, so my strategy lies mainly in following the media and watching the daily Dow prices. I like to think of consumer confidence as the main market force, and I try to stagger my timing with shifts in consumer confidence and the media's stance in general. For example, in November of 2006, when I saw the Dow break 12,000 and then 13,000, I sold. I regretted that, because I could have made more, but I made some instead of losing. Consumer confidence had been high after that, going into 2007 and I was in a hold position. I saw consumer confidence slump, waited for the market to return to 12,500, and bought in again. It's totally psychological with me... I am here to educate myself and make changes that are based in more scientific priciples.

I also subscirbe to a rival fund timing website, and after taking losses, I am resigned to following that website's recommendations at least until my subscription runs out. I went ahead and subscribed to the Premium services here at TSPTalk, so it will fun for me to compare the two recommendations and returns.

2007 was not a great year for me, but not as terrible as it could have been. I am playing with chump change compared to most of you guys, but it's early for me and I have a lot of time to figure this out and maximize my earnings.

One thing I am pretty impressed with about myself is that I am able to save a full third of my monthly income, separated into 70% TSP, 15% Savings Bonds, and 15% Money Market Savings. My wife works, so that helps out, and our next move is to establish a Traditional IRA in her name. I am feeling the need to diversify in the interest of college savings and home ownership.

 

[Asylum]

Welcome! This I think you will find this site very informative and fun!

 

[Boxkicker]

From my long-term advice givers... I feel comfortable reprinting the advice here, a few weeks after the fact, as long as I don't post the actual allocation recommendations.
3/12/08

Tuesday's sharp, high volume advance was broadly based across all market sectors. The fact that the January lows in the TSP C Fund have held is a constructive sign. However, Tuesday's 3.7% one-day rally in the C Fund was largely fed by short covering and did little to change the underlying technical structure of this bear market. A quick look at the signal tables below shows little to no change in status even after Tuesday's sharp rally.
While the Fed has now intervened with an important 28 day mortgage debt swap in an effort to support the credit markets, we unfortunately believe the underlying weak housing market will continue to offset the Fed's increasingly valiant support efforts for the foreseeable future. In fact we believe the current credit crisis may indeed proceed to a solvency crisis if the housing market fails to bottom soon. We will continue to monitor the markets and their underlying indicators closely for any signs of an impending trend change. Maintain current allocations.

 

[airlift]

Thanks!

 

[Boxkicker]

I got lucky this week... I extended into the market on Tuesday night (after collecting my .08 from 100%G) at 44%G, 21%F, 14%C, 11%C, 10%I. Prices shot up Wednesday as earning reports get into full swing, but I am still bearish on all this. I just drew back in for COB Thursday at 79%G, 21%F... I am thinking the choppy pattern will continue for the summer, but I am happy to catch a wave once and again. I do think we are seeing a bottom, and I think we are going to stay at this bottom at least until Oct... I remember 2006, when the market kept hitting 12,000 before the big break and soar. 12,000 seems to be the psychological bottom now, and I think the market will do its best to use that 12,000 as a leverage point. Im looking to get fully vested at 11,000 or 10,500, if that ever happens.

 

[Boxkicker]

Ah, what the hell. I got more than half of my investments on lockdown in money market and CDs... I may as well go for a ride next week. Also want to see if/how the IFT restrictions are working yet.

10%G, 21%F, 25%C, 19%S, 25%I

 

[Boxkicker]

Well, I sat for the weekend and backed off that last allocation to stay at 79%G, 21%F.... Tuesday I stretched into the market a little bit at my current comfort level 44%G, 21%F, 14%C, 11%S, 10%I.

I am considering a strategy shift next month in light of the IFT restrictions... After the first two unrestricted IFTs, we can only shift into the G fund for the remainder of the calendar month. Might it be sensible to make one move heavily into the markets in the early part of calendar months, make our best second buy move when we can, and then gradually back away from the market with a series of G fund purchases as the month moves on?

That rythmn is completely unscientific and unrelated to market conditions, but to me, it allows for the power of the sell and consolidate move. Any insights to this strategy as presented?

Gathered 4/21:
Last week's increasing upside momentum has moved TSP stock funds into a highly overbought condition--largely on short covering by a growing segment of bearish professional traders and hedge funds. While investors appeared to be fleeing Trasuries last week, there is little evidence of new public buying of equities or of a fundamental change in the protracted pessimistic market sentiment. Prices are now challenging the tops of their 2008 trading ranges, but we look for increasing resistance to be met on any further rally attempts over the near term.
While the TSP stock funds appear to be in the process of making a long term base, the intermediate and long term trends remain down. Even if prices can break decisively through the February high, there remains a very heavy selling zone just above current levels. We would view any further rally attempt to be limited in scope by increasing concerns over the end-of-month Fed meeting and the likelihood of more negative earnings announcements to come. Markets are still far too volatile for any turn-up in the short term trend to be a trusted bellwether right now for the beginning of a new bull market.

 

[crhuss]

I am considering a strategy shift next month in light of the IFT restrictions... After the first two unrestricted IFTs, we can only shift into the G fund for the remainder of the calendar month. Might it be sensible to make one move heavily into the markets in the early part of calendar months, make our best second buy move when we can, and then gradually back away from the market with a series of G fund purchases as the month moves on?

Hey Boxkicker, As of May 1, can we still make unlimited IFTs back to the G fund after the two moves a month into stocks? I was under the impression that we had two moves a month with the third move only into the G fund. I hope you are right and I just got confused when I read the Board's long drawn-out 'cover their asses' ruling. Your approach for dealing with the ruling sounds logical. I am just totally confused as to how to make any money in this environment. But I'm sure the great analytical minds on this website can figure out something. We just need to put our heads together and show those commi Washington DC bastxxxx that we are smarter than they are. Anyway....keep up the good work, and please let me know about the unlimited G moves, OK? Thanks

 

[airlift]

EW ret, and you, have given simplified explanations to follow. Thank you!

The rule is 2+. Two unrestricted moves during the month into any funds you want . After that, you are restricted to moving into the G fund ONLY, with unlimited moves. So you can DCA into G during the month. But once IN, no OUT, until the first of the following month.

 

[Boxkicker]

I sent off a check yesterday to pay back a good portion of my TSP General Purpose Loan... My account balance will increase by about 25%. I had taken out the money in October of 2006 because I needed a sizeable bank statement to show Chinese Immigration I was financially solvent as part of my wife's parents' US visa application. Just after I provided the statement, my bank offered up 15-month CD rates at 5.5%, so I skimmed a little off the top and locked it in. I feel pretty good about that desicion, as my TSP was -2.5% for 2007, and I dropped another 5% from Jan-Mar here in 2008.

But the CD is maturing next month, so it's time to collect and square up with TSP... not affecting anything but my bottom line and how much I have to gain/win with that. I'm just feeling a little more pressure to perform as my "safe" money returns to where it came from, the risk tolerance pool. :nuts: