Best Buy/Sell Dates

[mmk119]

I appreciate the great input and wise advice. While some follow it as a trading strategy with some success; I agree, seasonality is more of a secondary indicator of possible trend. And yes, any signal that everyone follows can get diluted or supported (in a self-fulfilling way) depending on how it is used.

some interesting vids for thought...
Larry Williams: Market Forecast 2024 - YouTube

5000? Where do we go from here? | 02.11.2024 TSP Weekly Podcast - YouTube

September 2023 Double Header with Jeffrey Hirsch from Stock Trader's Almanac - YouTube

US Stock Market - S&P 500 SPX | Weekly & Monthly Cycle and Chart Analysis | Projections & Timing - YouTube
(Slims videos are already posted elsewhere on the site. but, also putting it here as it goes with the thread.)


I'm making no recommendations. while they could be right (or wrong) be aware, they are also selling products. do your own due diligence. But, interesting points of view and thoughts none the less.

 

[Bullitt]

Seasonality is not a guarantee, but an average. Seasonal patterns are derived from historical data, but do not account for all the possible factors that can affect the market in the present or future - for example, interest rate cycles.

This biggest considerations is that seasonality is not a secret, but a widely known phenomenon. Most investors and traders are aware of the seasonal tendencies of the stock market, and may adjust their strategies accordingly and diluting the effects.

Stock market almanac is a great recommendation! Fun read for historical context and a few trading ideas. Hirsch's trading strategy is largely based around a combination of seasonality and MACD. He doesn't just blindly buy in October and sell in May.

 

[JTH]

A good starting point for entering the seasonality rabbit hole is the Stock Trader's Almanac. I've had several editions over the years, I don't buy them every year because there's really only minor revisions from one edition to the next. All of the most important & relevant concepts of seasonality are in this book.

As a system, If I were to trade/invest based on seasonality alone, then I wouldn't use my entire portfolio. Instead I'd set aside a portion, like maybe 10-15% specifically for this purpose. The longer the timeframe the more likely it is to be successful because (generally speaking) a 10-year plan will yield significantly better results over a 1-year plan.

 

[tsptalk]

I view seasonality as a secondary indicator. It can be useful but it's just a breeze at the back of the market when it's favorable, and a slight headwind when bearish.

Exceptions are around some major holidays when the advantage is undeniable.

 

[mmk119]

Here you go. https://www.iraepstein.com/ however, his special report ended and was taken down some time ago. he only puts them up for a few days. He is also on Youtube. very good videos. https://www.youtube.com/@IraEpsteinFutures

 

[dannyboy]

Can you post a link to the Ira website for me.
D

 

[mmk119]

Restarting an old thread because I've been seeing the topic on other blogs and Ira Epstein recently did a special on the topic. I don't have anything to add just yet, but inviting comments, suggestions, and discussion about historical best buy/sell dates.

What do you think about the saying "go away in May" or that October is historically the month that all crashes occur in?

In the past, I recall discussions on best dates to buy/sell for short term gains. Talks about historical cycles. etc.

Jump in and comment or ask questions please!