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Aslan's Account Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
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imported post
Well, let's give this a try. 100% G (effective since close price 6/22/05)to start on this thread, looking for a signal to stay put or get back in.
By the way, I know Monday morning QB is a no, no. That's allof that you will see from me. You will also see me make moves and place trades after the market closes on a given day, after my numbers are run, not in the AM before the noon deadline, there is too much emotion involved in that, which I'm going to try and eliminate as much as possible (I'll try). We will see what happens. Thanks
Aslan
Well, let's give this a try. 100% G (effective since close price 6/22/05)to start on this thread, looking for a signal to stay put or get back in.
By the way, I know Monday morning QB is a no, no. That's allof that you will see from me. You will also see me make moves and place trades after the market closes on a given day, after my numbers are run, not in the AM before the noon deadline, there is too much emotion involved in that, which I'm going to try and eliminate as much as possible (I'll try). We will see what happens. Thanks
Aslan
imported post
With an up price in the S fund, my model signals back to 100% S as of closing price 6/29/05. I will place a tight stop on this (2% stoploss).
I wish I could find a chart that shows volume trends and other indicators greater than 5 days for the Wilshire 4500? Anyone with some suggestions?
With an up price in the S fund, my model signals back to 100% S as of closing price 6/29/05. I will place a tight stop on this (2% stoploss).
I wish I could find a chart that shows volume trends and other indicators greater than 5 days for the Wilshire 4500? Anyone with some suggestions?
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Aslan,
You may end up taking a few hits into next week, but suggest you try and absorb the body blows with the rest of us investing dare devils. If you are allocating into the S fund you will end up buying in at an even lower price on payday. If you are not in 100% S fund you can use other funds to dollar cost average on the down side, and when the turn comes you are that much further ahead. Good luck. I just realized you are 100% S fund. This will be a good test of your pain threshold, how much pain can you handle? For me when I'm accumulating the more pain the better.
I think this market has been responding to the possibility of import surcharges placed on the Chinese - rather than reacting negatively to the latest Fed policy. That particular legislation has been abandoned and the market will undoubtedly rebound into the summer months. Mr Snow is saying the Chinese will revalue their yaun in the next 2 months - perhaps gradually. I'd hold my positions and add to them.
Aslan,
You may end up taking a few hits into next week, but suggest you try and absorb the body blows with the rest of us investing dare devils. If you are allocating into the S fund you will end up buying in at an even lower price on payday. If you are not in 100% S fund you can use other funds to dollar cost average on the down side, and when the turn comes you are that much further ahead. Good luck. I just realized you are 100% S fund. This will be a good test of your pain threshold, how much pain can you handle? For me when I'm accumulating the more pain the better.
I think this market has been responding to the possibility of import surcharges placed on the Chinese - rather than reacting negatively to the latest Fed policy. That particular legislation has been abandoned and the market will undoubtedly rebound into the summer months. Mr Snow is saying the Chinese will revalue their yaun in the next 2 months - perhaps gradually. I'd hold my positions and add to them.
imported post
Birtch-
Thanks for the comments. What I'm trying to figure out is where all the sellers are? The level of the S Fund is at a resistant point right now (52 week high), and that is why I contemplated getting out, for the short term. I'm still learning about this volume/buyers/sellars stuff, but it seems like it may correct here (consolidate) or break through to new highs. My signal says stay in, so I'm in. I typically don't look at all that other stuff (China, oil, etc) It is too complicated for me. I basically need to know the volume and the resistant points. Thanks.
Birtch-
Thanks for the comments. What I'm trying to figure out is where all the sellers are? The level of the S Fund is at a resistant point right now (52 week high), and that is why I contemplated getting out, for the short term. I'm still learning about this volume/buyers/sellars stuff, but it seems like it may correct here (consolidate) or break through to new highs. My signal says stay in, so I'm in. I typically don't look at all that other stuff (China, oil, etc) It is too complicated for me. I basically need to know the volume and the resistant points. Thanks.
imported post
Aslan
You said:
"I wish I could find a chart that shows volume trends and other indicators greater than 5 days for the Wilshire 4500? Anyone with some suggestions?"
Try Stockcharts.com using symbol $emw for long term signals on the Wilshire 4500. Or go to Stockcharts.com then click on Public Charts then look for my free page called: TSP INVESTING & TREND LINE BREAKS , then click on it. :^
Good luck
Roman
Aslan
You said:
"I wish I could find a chart that shows volume trends and other indicators greater than 5 days for the Wilshire 4500? Anyone with some suggestions?"
Try Stockcharts.com using symbol $emw for long term signals on the Wilshire 4500. Or go to Stockcharts.com then click on Public Charts then look for my free page called: TSP INVESTING & TREND LINE BREAKS , then click on it. :^
Good luck
Roman
imported post
Rome-
Thanks!! I already checked it out and it looks like it will be very helpful. I've started to really look at the charts and get educated about them, you know, double tops, V's, inverted V's, head and shoulders, resistance, support, that kind of stuff. It is very fascinating.
On the realted note, if the S fund can hold above 512, it would of appeared to break through the resistance of the previous 52 week high. This would then become support, right? I know the volume is important as well and I'll look at it later at the close. This could really start the S fund on a little run. The volume and keepingabove the current resistance today appears to be key. Thanks :^
Rome-
Thanks!! I already checked it out and it looks like it will be very helpful. I've started to really look at the charts and get educated about them, you know, double tops, V's, inverted V's, head and shoulders, resistance, support, that kind of stuff. It is very fascinating.
On the realted note, if the S fund can hold above 512, it would of appeared to break through the resistance of the previous 52 week high. This would then become support, right? I know the volume is important as well and I'll look at it later at the close. This could really start the S fund on a little run. The volume and keepingabove the current resistance today appears to be key. Thanks :^
imported post
This chart is interesting. It actually shows volume for the S fund. It seems that we have penetrated a resistance zone in the S fund at 511, only to see the volume below average on the upswing, hum? Is this a valid breakout? I'm still learning this charting stuff, but I know that I would of liked to have seen tremendously high volume today. My signal says stay in, so I'm staying, the support should now be where the resistance was at around 511. Let's see if it holds. Still learning. Hopefully the volume tomorrow will be way up as the "dumb money" comes in (no offense to anyone by the way) and pushes the demand greater than the supply.
This chart is interesting. It actually shows volume for the S fund. It seems that we have penetrated a resistance zone in the S fund at 511, only to see the volume below average on the upswing, hum? Is this a valid breakout? I'm still learning this charting stuff, but I know that I would of liked to have seen tremendously high volume today. My signal says stay in, so I'm staying, the support should now be where the resistance was at around 511. Let's see if it holds. Still learning. Hopefully the volume tomorrow will be way up as the "dumb money" comes in (no offense to anyone by the way) and pushes the demand greater than the supply.
imported post
Volume is still below average in the S fund, but a nice reversal today. It's baffling how we broke through the 52 week high this , on lower than averagevolume, and then had a reversal today on even lower volume, mind boggling!
If S fund price is lateral or down by the end of tomorrow, that signals me outinto G, with hopefully a little gain (short term). This decision will be made at the end of the day tomorrow, not before.
Volume is still below average in the S fund, but a nice reversal today. It's baffling how we broke through the 52 week high this , on lower than averagevolume, and then had a reversal today on even lower volume, mind boggling!
If S fund price is lateral or down by the end of tomorrow, that signals me outinto G, with hopefully a little gain (short term). This decision will be made at the end of the day tomorrow, not before.
imported post
Volume sets a three month high today of over 1.6 billion shares traded, and they appeared to be a HUGE amount of buyers, as the S fund price opens way above the close yesterday and never looks back, gaining 1.33% to set an all time high. This up price keeps me in for now. See technical analysis thread for more info and to see a chart. Let's see what happens Monday.
Still 100% S for now.
Volume sets a three month high today of over 1.6 billion shares traded, and they appeared to be a HUGE amount of buyers, as the S fund price opens way above the close yesterday and never looks back, gaining 1.33% to set an all time high. This up price keeps me in for now. See technical analysis thread for more info and to see a chart. Let's see what happens Monday.
Still 100% S for now.
imported post
Correction:
I made a mistake on the volume, today. I stated volume at 1.6 billion which was data from businessweek.com. I indepedently checked 3 other web sites who had the volume at 976 million. Still above average. I will no longer us businessweek for my volume data, sorry about the mistake.
100% S
Correction:
I made a mistake on the volume, today. I stated volume at 1.6 billion which was data from businessweek.com. I indepedently checked 3 other web sites who had the volume at 976 million. Still above average. I will no longer us businessweek for my volume data, sorry about the mistake.
100% S
imported post
Highest volume in 10 dayspushes the Wilshire 4500 to another record. It may be going up too fast, without testing support on the way up. This could lead to a reversal and major down turn. Signal still says 100% S. Buyers still pushing the demand. How long will it last?
Still 100% S
Highest volume in 10 dayspushes the Wilshire 4500 to another record. It may be going up too fast, without testing support on the way up. This could lead to a reversal and major down turn. Signal still says 100% S. Buyers still pushing the demand. How long will it last?
Still 100% S
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Aslan,
Looks like you have the bull by the horns - you've made $.48 since you went long the S fund. I would like to take this opportunity to offer you some information without sounding like The Technician or comparable bear tone. Just a little something to keep in mind as we continue on this journey into new highs.
At the end of the last 3 Fed tightenings: 2/95, 3/97, 5/00, six months later the small-cap stocks outperformed large caps in all three cycles. Producing gains of 23% to 32%. The large caps stayed in the lower 20% range. This time I suspect will be different and the reason is small-cap stocks have outperformed large cap issues for the past six years. Taking into account relative-value assessments I would expect small cap stocks to perform about in line with large-cap stocks. From my basic contrarian approach I look for the C fund to way outperform the S fund going forward. There you have it - I commend you for not sitting in the G fund and watching the world pass by.
Aslan,
Looks like you have the bull by the horns - you've made $.48 since you went long the S fund. I would like to take this opportunity to offer you some information without sounding like The Technician or comparable bear tone. Just a little something to keep in mind as we continue on this journey into new highs.
At the end of the last 3 Fed tightenings: 2/95, 3/97, 5/00, six months later the small-cap stocks outperformed large caps in all three cycles. Producing gains of 23% to 32%. The large caps stayed in the lower 20% range. This time I suspect will be different and the reason is small-cap stocks have outperformed large cap issues for the past six years. Taking into account relative-value assessments I would expect small cap stocks to perform about in line with large-cap stocks. From my basic contrarian approach I look for the C fund to way outperform the S fund going forward. There you have it - I commend you for not sitting in the G fund and watching the world pass by.
imported post
Birchtree,
Thanks for the info. It is funny you mentioned something about taking the Bull by the horns. I went to a Church camp with my family and left my money in the S fund for 3 days without looking at it and with no access to a computer.My philosophy was that my indicators were well above a "Sell" for the S fund and it was a little of a risk. My signal actually told me to get out after Thursday's close (effective COB Friday), but with the up price on Friday I decided to stay in for now. That is a little bit of Quaterbacking but I'm still 100% S as of now.
I'm trying to learn Technical analysis/charts while I stay with my signal, etc. so I'm kind of in Transition with all of this, still learning, of course. Thanks for the input.
Still 100% S
By the way, I've chosen to use my signal only with the S fund, and not the C fund. Just my preferance. So you will not see me going C fund (or I fund) until I understand the technicals better. Thanks
Birchtree,
Thanks for the info. It is funny you mentioned something about taking the Bull by the horns. I went to a Church camp with my family and left my money in the S fund for 3 days without looking at it and with no access to a computer.My philosophy was that my indicators were well above a "Sell" for the S fund and it was a little of a risk. My signal actually told me to get out after Thursday's close (effective COB Friday), but with the up price on Friday I decided to stay in for now. That is a little bit of Quaterbacking but I'm still 100% S as of now.
I'm trying to learn Technical analysis/charts while I stay with my signal, etc. so I'm kind of in Transition with all of this, still learning, of course. Thanks for the input.
Still 100% S
By the way, I've chosen to use my signal only with the S fund, and not the C fund. Just my preferance. So you will not see me going C fund (or I fund) until I understand the technicals better. Thanks
imported post
3 days out of 4 down calls for my second sell signal in the past 3 days (didn't sell on first signal due to lack of computer access) Anyway, more importantly:
100% G effective COB 7/19/05
I'll try to pick it up againif low volume at support level 515 (wilshire 4500) or so.
3 days out of 4 down calls for my second sell signal in the past 3 days (didn't sell on first signal due to lack of computer access) Anyway, more importantly:
100% G effective COB 7/19/05
I'll try to pick it up againif low volume at support level 515 (wilshire 4500) or so.
billwardak
New member
imported post
if your heading for the porch so am I!!:shock:
if your heading for the porch so am I!!:shock:
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