It was another fairly flat day for stocks on Thursday, although we saw early selling again, followed by those dip buyers pushing the indices back up by the close. The Dow gained 18-points while the S&P was flat, small caps posted a small gain, and the Transports continue to act well. Basically it was positioning for Friday's jobs report.
[TABLE="width: 89%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 180, align: center"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Right now the chances of a rate hike in September, according to the CME Group, are about 24% and a 57% chance by December. A strong jobs report of over 200,000 could push that to much higher percentages and that's why everyone is so nervous - the uncertainty.
The August Jobs Report comes out this morning (Friday) an hour before the market opens and the consensus estimates are looking for a gain of about 185,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.8%. The August Jobs Report Contest winners will be posted in the forum. Click here for more info.
Per www.tsp.gov: "Some financial markets will be closed on Monday, September 5th in observance of the Labor Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (September 5th) will be processed Tuesday night (September 6th), at Tuesday's closing share prices."
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) pulled back to test support again but it is really just biding time until today's jobs report announcement. Any kind of surprise could shake things up quite a bit and take out support or resistance, but we should be more concerned about where the indices close after some of the smoke has cleared.
The DWCPF (S-Fund) repeated Wednesday's action by pulling back early, testing and holding at support, and closing near the highs of the day.
The price of oil plummeted again as the 200-day EMA was taken out rather quickly. There are many things to read into this, but let's see what the jobs report does to the market before we get too analytical here. For now it's just an eye opener.
The EFA (I-fund) had a good day with the help of a healthy pullback in the dollar on Thursday.
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) opened sharply lower but recovered to close near its highs of the day with a small gain. There's a lot of noise out there in front of this jobs report, but not much has changed yet.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. Have a great holiday weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
