About the Dollar and the EURO

[nnuut]

Will this happen and make the "I" fund the place to be?
GOOD READ!
"The dollar probably is near the start of a decline that will raise the value of a euro to $1.30 by the end of this year and close to $1.36 in mid-2007, a level not seen since December 2004."
Today From Barron's
The Buck's Backslide



By Marc Chandler Published: August 24, 2006

http://foxnews.smartmoney.com/barrons/index.cfm?story=20060824

 

[Pilgrim]

Will this happen and make the "I" fund the place to be?

Hard to say isn't it? Dollar dropping directly lifts "I" up but it threatens European exports which drives their markets down.

What I think is this: As the dollar slides, European markets will fluctuate, dropping on days the currency moves a lot and recovering a few days later. After months have gone by, the stocks swings will cancel out but the currency effect will be cumulative. In the absence of anything else (like recession, war, etc) this might just be a good play.

 

[airlift]

Great article. ThanksThe dollar probably is near the start of a decline that will raise the value of a euro to $1.30 by the end of this year and close to $1.36 in mid-2007, a level not seen since December 2004."</b></p>oday From Barron's</p>The Buck's Backslide</b></p>Marc Chandler Published: August 24, 2006 </p>http://foxnews.smartmoney.com/barrons/index.cfm?story=20060824" target="_blank">http://foxnews.smartmoney.com/barrons/index.cfm?story=20060824[/quote]</p>

 

[Pilgrim]

We need to keep this in perspective. The dollar is currently valued against the Euro at 127.64, so 130 by year's end is a gain of 1.5%. If it is 136 at mid 2007, that is a gain of 6.55% from today. I certainly hope to do better than that, so foreign stocks will have to be uptrending to make it worthwhile.

 

[Fireant]

Pilgrim is dead on... Buffett bet big against the dollar last year and lost... the dollar is right around 1.27ish now so even if it makes 1.3 only a percentage or two gain from the currency play... your train of thought however is exactly mine as I believe long-term(1-3 years) the dollar will gradually fall...I like the I fund best of all in the short-term just not now as the u.s. markets are long in the teeth for my liking and believe the international markets will follow the U.S. markets leaad... anyway best of luck... DA FIREANT>>>>

 

[Bullitt]

We've seen this all before. Think the US Dollar a few months ago. This is not to say we will see a big rally in the Euro, but I think the selling is a bit overdone here.

Traders and hedge funds have bet nearly $8bn (€5.9bn) against the euro, amassing the biggest ever short position in the single currency on fears of a eurozone debt crisis.

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0330ba78-149f-11df-9ea1-00144feab49a.html

 

[Castaway]

Now that Germany has agreed to step in and rescue Greece in some way, the short-term movement may change slightly. Overall, the European economic landscape remains largely uncertain and many Euro zone countries are facing, or are predicted to face, similar debt problems.

 

[nnuut]

I need the EURO to drop about $.20, the wife and one of my Daughters are going to Spain for a Month in May! COM-ON DOWN!!

 

[phil]

I think you're right. Dollar/euro may be due for adjustment as euro debt crisis gets ironed out. They'll do it, because they have to. Right now, the euro economy is larger than ours, and they continue to expand, mostly eastwards. They also are much much more dependent on international trade than we are.

This may be a bit off topic, but I haven't seen much movement on the Chinese currency. It's kept artificially low to stimulate production and export, but may appreciate.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100204/pl_nm/us_china_usa_10

The Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington has estimated that the yuan is undervalued by about 40 percent against the U.S. dollar.

The question will also come up as to how this will affect dollar/euro in the near future. My short guess is dollar will adjust upward to euro and downward against yuan.

We've seen this all before. Think the US Dollar a few months ago. This is not to say we will see a big rally in the Euro, but I think the selling is a bit overdone here.


www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0330ba78-149f-11df-9ea1-00144feab49a.html

 

[Bullitt]

A visual from Jason. Like I've said, we've been here before with the US Dollar. If there's anything we should consider, it's that there's no such thing as a sure thing.

View attachment 8339

www.sentimentrader.com

 

[Bullitt]

Obviously anyone who took the advice from the above fancy chart got hammered. Anyone ready for Euro 130? How about 125?

 

[JimmyJoe]

Yes, I'm ready for a European vacation.

 

[Frixxxx]

Go quickly....and don't go to England....their rate is horrid!