02/11/26
Stocks were trading higher during most of the day on Tuesday but they peaked in afternoon trading and sold off into the close. While the losses were moderate in most indices, the Dow did close at a new all-time high as we head into the January jobs report, which will be released this morning.
Retail Sales data, which included the December holiday shopping, missed the mark yesterday, and while stocks didn't react initially, bond yields did drop sharply on the weaker than expected data sending bond prices and the F-fund higher
The 10-Year Treasury Yield fell to a 4-week low after the release of the retail sales data.
BND (bonds / F-fund) makes a new high after blasting through the upper end of its trading channel.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) let a moderate gain disappear and turn into a moderate loss by the close. This negative reversal on a Turnaround Tuesday is a little concerning due to that stubborn resistance continuing to hold near 6985. While being near the all times highs is not considered bearish, failure to make new highs may open the door for the bears to try to make another move. The bearish Wyckoff Distribution pattern is still in the picture and will be unless or until we see a meaningful breakout to new highs.
Following up on the Nasdaq 100 which ran into its 50-day moving average after Monday's rally, flipped over on Tuesdat. It wasn't a major decline, but resistance held on this first attempt.
The Dow Transportation Index was up, bucking the trend over the broader market, but it is down for the week and extended on the upside. This market leader has been leading, but there is a lot of room on the downside within the channel in the short-term.
The January Jobs Report is scheduled to be released this morning. Average estimates are looking for a gain of about 70,000 payrolls jobs in January, up slightly from 50,000 in December, and the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4%
We will get the CPI report on Friday.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
The DWCPF (S-fund) had a negative reversal day and closed at the lows setting up some short-term bearishness, but today's jobs report will be more of a factor in the direction. I was a little surprised small caps didn't do better with the 10-year yield falling well below 4.2% yesterday, but it was caused by the weak retail sales.
ACWX (I fund) was up for a third straight day but it is still at the top of its trading channel and could be vulnerable to another pullback - unless it plans to go parabolic from here.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were trading higher during most of the day on Tuesday but they peaked in afternoon trading and sold off into the close. While the losses were moderate in most indices, the Dow did close at a new all-time high as we head into the January jobs report, which will be released this morning.
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Retail Sales data, which included the December holiday shopping, missed the mark yesterday, and while stocks didn't react initially, bond yields did drop sharply on the weaker than expected data sending bond prices and the F-fund higher
The 10-Year Treasury Yield fell to a 4-week low after the release of the retail sales data.
BND (bonds / F-fund) makes a new high after blasting through the upper end of its trading channel.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) let a moderate gain disappear and turn into a moderate loss by the close. This negative reversal on a Turnaround Tuesday is a little concerning due to that stubborn resistance continuing to hold near 6985. While being near the all times highs is not considered bearish, failure to make new highs may open the door for the bears to try to make another move. The bearish Wyckoff Distribution pattern is still in the picture and will be unless or until we see a meaningful breakout to new highs.
Following up on the Nasdaq 100 which ran into its 50-day moving average after Monday's rally, flipped over on Tuesdat. It wasn't a major decline, but resistance held on this first attempt.
The Dow Transportation Index was up, bucking the trend over the broader market, but it is down for the week and extended on the upside. This market leader has been leading, but there is a lot of room on the downside within the channel in the short-term.
The January Jobs Report is scheduled to be released this morning. Average estimates are looking for a gain of about 70,000 payrolls jobs in January, up slightly from 50,000 in December, and the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4%
We will get the CPI report on Friday.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
The DWCPF (S-fund) had a negative reversal day and closed at the lows setting up some short-term bearishness, but today's jobs report will be more of a factor in the direction. I was a little surprised small caps didn't do better with the 10-year yield falling well below 4.2% yesterday, but it was caused by the weak retail sales.
ACWX (I fund) was up for a third straight day but it is still at the top of its trading channel and could be vulnerable to another pullback - unless it plans to go parabolic from here.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
