A Look at the 1973-1974 Bear Market and where we currently stand with the 2022 Bear

[felixthecat]

If there are any similarities between 1973-1974 bear market and where we stand now...then we can expect to see a grind down of at least 10 percent from last weeks highs before we continue with a true new bull run. While we probably will not test the June lows...you can see as in 1973-1974 Bear market we had a bear rally off the lows followed by a 15-16 percent pullback before continuing with a new bull run. We are are about 7 months into this selloff. We have some similarities now and back then with rising interest rates and the FED fighting the tide. In addition we have a Russia/Ukraine conflict...technology chip shortage and overall high costs to get commodities to consumers. Food costs are moving up at an alarming rate putting pressure on the low to middle consumers. The food industry has a crisis in people labor who do not want to work for low end wages. However...restaurants are being squeezed by the covid pandemic and rising food costs. Shortages in food production due to long droughts across the west and central/south central parts of the nation have really exacerbated the food shortages. The FED will remain on a tear to keep inflation in check with continued rate increases which will likely keep the stock market under pressure for the rest of the year. The recession in home sales and price should continue to worsen. Those that bought into higher home and auto sales prices surely will see a greater impact on their monthly standard of living. Credit crisis will follow soon as consumers faulter paying off debt. Oil prices have trimmed back but most analyst believe this is only temporary and when it climbs again this will further give consumer reason to change their habits. Have we seen the worst yet for the markets...maybe. However...we are far from getting out of this inflationary environment. Too many problems to solve and this will take several more months. A new bull run maybe start in April or May of 2023. Until then...expect stock market to grind down or zip zag through through the end of the year. Maybe this 1973-1974 bear market will help us get a feel of where we are at and when we are going to get out of this mess. :worried:

https://stockinvesting.today/ma1608/article/the-1973-1974-bear-market?