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99percent

99percent

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Forgive me if this is very elementary. Just trying to get a handle on things because I have virtually no clue.

YTD 2012 C Fund 14.81% return
2011 C Fund 2.11 return

S Fund was negative in 2011.

If I had kept my allocation in the C fund from Jan 2012 til now 14.81% would be my return to this point? And 2.11 in 2011 for the year,correct?

I understand this is risky and probably would not do that. So my objective is to identify when is best to jump in to stocks (and what %) and when to bail to hold what I got and minimize risk,correct?

That's why I'm here. I have never made an informed allocation. Hence, extremely mediocre returns. Right now, 14.81% looks pretty good to me but I'd like to do better! And I know that number can go down

before the end of the year. I am late in my career and not close enough to my "number" to make it based on my current YTD return (just dropped from 7.68% to just above 4%), yeesh!

Just want to do a little better! Oh, what the heck, I want to do A LOT BETTER! :) I'm SO glad I found this site! Looking forward to learning a lot and making a few $$. Thanks, 99percent.
 
Perhaps this is the wrong forum. Or just a really stupid post. Sorry. Trying to figure out how to delete it.
 
99percent said:
Forgive me if this is very elementary. Just trying to get a handle on things because I have virtually no clue.

YTD 2012 C Fund 14.81% return
2011 C Fund 2.11 return

S Fund was negative in 2011.

If I had kept my allocation in the C fund from Jan 2012 til now 14.81% would be my return to this point? And 2.11 in 2011 for the year,correct?
Click to expand...
Correct. You would have that gain if you have been in the C fund in the start of this year.

I understand this is risky and probably would not do that. So my objective is to identify when is best to jump in to stocks (and what %) and when to bail to hold what I got and minimize risk,correct?
Click to expand...
Correct, its a form of gambling sad to say. If you want to minimize your exposure to stocks try the L fund. It is balanced between all the funds (G, S, F, C, I) depending how you want to put into stocks/bonds.

That's why I'm here. I have never made an informed allocation. Hence, extremely mediocre returns. Right now, 14.81% looks pretty good to me but I'd like to do better! And I know that number can go down

before the end of the year. I am late in my career and not close enough to my "number" to make it based on my current YTD return (just dropped from 7.68% to just above 4%), yeesh!

Just want to do a little better! Oh, what the heck, I want to do A LOT BETTER! :) I'm SO glad I found this site! Looking forward to learning a lot and making a few $$. Thanks, 99percent.
Click to expand...
Welcome 99percent. All I can tell you is read read read. Look at the autotracker, read the members threads and there you can gauge on what we are thinking and maybe you can form an opinion to what you want to do with you're money. Sorry for the late reply the election and work has most of us very busy. :)
 
Hey thanks, I really appreciate the feedback. I've already gotten some good advice and I am learning. Sorry about the pity party. Just a little insecure among you people who actually

know what your doing. I'll catch up! Thanks again.
 
No worries at all 99percent. If you have more questions ask away, we don't bite. ;)

p.s: You are not the only one who is insecure about the market. But from reading, looking at charts, seasonality, etc etc we sleep a little better at night.
 
99percent said:
Forgive me if this is very elementary. Just trying to get a handle on things because I have virtually no clue.
I am late in my career and not close enough to my "number" to make it based on my current YTD return (just dropped from 7.68% to just above 4%), yeesh! Just want to do a little better! Oh, what the heck, I want to do A LOT BETTER! :) I'm SO glad I found this site! Looking forward to learning a lot and making a few $$. Thanks, 99percent.
Click to expand...

Welcome, 99!!

Make sure you start your own Member's Thread....and join the Autotracker!

A word of caution, even the best on the AT have up and down years....just look at those at the top and compare to their last years, and vice versa, look at those on the bottom and then look at THEIR last year! (Like me for example....:embarrest:)

You say you are late in your career. IF you are over 50 you can put in catch up contributions. So you can put in up to $23,500 per year! And it can be tax deferred (traditional tsp) or Roth (after tax $, but not taxed on the future gains), or a little of both. This is a real opportunity to build your nest egg in your latter years.

I am not saying to shy away from equities, by any means. But you might want to consider a basic allocation and then just tweak it a couple times a year. At least till you are more comfortable with your risk tolerance (I am currently 33/33/34, C/S/I but you don't have to go all in to equities of course.)


Much to learn here, so good luck and good reading. Be aware also that everyone here has their own goals and are at all different stages of their carreer and investing. I am sure you can find something that you are comfortable with.


Randy :D
 
uscfanhawaii said:
A word of caution, even the best on the AT have up and down years....just look at those at the top and compare to their last years, and vice versa, look at those on the bottom and then look at THEIR last year! (Like me for example....:embarrest:)

Much to learn here, so good luck and good reading. Be aware also that everyone here has their own goals and are at all different stages of their career and investing. I am sure you can find something that you are comfortable with.
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree more. I've been on the top side of the AT since May, but I didn't make a penny in 2010 or 2011.

Additionally, we do all have our own goals and are at different stages. Those on the top and bottom of the tracker are usually going to me more aggressive then those in the middle of the pack. I say this because you don't make those kind of gains or losses (in an up year) unless you are making the most of your 2 IFT and usually 100% moves in and out. A more conservative approach might not want 100% exposure. JMTC
 
Thank you for all the great advice! USCFan I believe you're right, the best thing to do is max out my contributions. And I understand there will be ups and downs. Just want to do the best I can!

And yeah, I'd like to hit a home run once in a while. Heh...

PS: Thanks Tom
 
Buy signal is intriguing but any negative talk from the fiscal cliff talks will keep sending stocks down i believe. But good news could provide a small window to gain.

Anybody buying? Or is prudence the name of the game?

"Dear Prudence, won't you come out to play?"
 
99percent said:
Buy signal is intriguing but any negative talk from the fiscal cliff talks will keep sending stocks down i believe. But good news could provide a small window to gain.

Anybody buying? Or is prudence the name of the game?

"Dear Prudence, won't you come out to play?"
Click to expand...

The markets I think are due for a bounce soon, but I would really be cautious about it as we are currently looking at a bearish market.

If you want my opinion, I think we're only seeing the spearhead of a market down move. There is a chance for a bounce, but generally the market can only take so many -100+ days before there's a panic selloff, something we didn't really see yet this year. Weekly MACD went negative on all major indexes (S&P, DOW, NASDAQ, RUT) a week ago which is a bad sign. The nasdaq was the first to fall, and IMO will be the first one to bounce, so I am watching that chart for a bounce before the rest.

Since you started off the year holding C fund I assume you had good gains, no shame in locking in a profit if the spider senses are tingling ;)
 
Want to move more into stocks but a bit leery about the market being overbought. Jump in or wait for after the correction (if there is one) this week? 1 IFT left this month.

Allocation: 50 S 25 F 25 G. Thinking about saving the IFT to buy low before EOM.
 
99percent said:
Want to move more into stocks but a bit leery about the market being overbought. Jump in or wait for after the correction (if there is one) this week? 1 IFT left this month.

Allocation: 50 S 25 F 25 G. Thinking about saving the IFT to buy low before EOM.
Click to expand...

Well, at least you have some skin in the game. If we have a strong week this week, then I'd expect the following week to show weakness. Statistically speaking we should look for the markets to weaken towards the end of this week. If that happens, then you may want to wait till the last week to make an entry.
 
99percent said:
Looks like middle class takes another hit.

Sorry, middle class. The VAT may be inevitable. - The Term Sheet: Fortune's deals blogTerm Sheet
Click to expand...

yuck.gif


sick2.gif


puke.gif
 
Only if they do away with Federal taxes and limit increases in the VAT. the Vat is so infationary it will probably be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
CamelsBack.gif​
 
On a personal note...I would like to thank everyone who has helped me get up to speed on this site. I feel like I have a chance now. I have taken control with your help. I have become somewhat immersed in learning all

all I can about the markets and everything that goes with it. Wish I had started 20 yrs ago. But then we didn't have this cool website then. :)

Bought a couple books (thanks JohnRoss). Not up to speed on reading charts but you guys are so generous with your analysis. Thank you all. I love reading all the opinions and then making up my own mind. And please forgive me

for all the dumb questions I'll ask in the future.
 
Just finished Strategic Stock Trading by Michael Swanson. Lot of stuff not aimed at TSPer's but a lot of good stuff about market sentiment, emotion in trading etc...pretty short read. Also gives info on how and which charts to read. What to look for.

Just starting High Probability Trading by Marcus Link recommended by JohnRoss. Look out! :cool:
 
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