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99percent's account talk.
- Thread starter 99percent
- Start date
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
I imagine you're referring to the sell signal from the Sentiment Survey that Tom devised for this site. It is a system with good returns historically, but missed the mark last year and is currently lagging the stock funds this year. But it's definitely worth factoring into your decisions. Also check out the Last Month Best Fund thread for another idea of what to do while learning.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/longer-te...ths-best-fund-method-strategy.html#post380732
If you do decide to follow the Sentiment Survey, realize that when it makes IFTs (interfund transfers - a move from one fund to another), it does so COB on Friday. If you make an IFT now, it won't go into effect until COB Monday. Welcome, and good luck!
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/longer-te...ths-best-fund-method-strategy.html#post380732
If you do decide to follow the Sentiment Survey, realize that when it makes IFTs (interfund transfers - a move from one fund to another), it does so COB on Friday. If you make an IFT now, it won't go into effect until COB Monday. Welcome, and good luck!
Frixxxx
Moderator
- Reaction score
- 131
You are more "in" than I am. But I'm I'm buying in with my contributions 50 C/S. Agree with tsptalk.....not a favorable spot in the market to give advice on. Come Tuesday, many businesses will have to play by the rules of the new/old administration and their direction.
Boghie
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 284
I would recommend sitting...
I used to play competitively in basketball. Folks had to be coached to 'sit' in an area rather than running around trying to make plays to get open during a half court offense. Players had to be coached to sit or move to predictable spots. You have to know where you are at and your team has to know where you are going.
Your current allocation is a bit odd. You have lots of risk in the 'S Fund', but are balancing it a bit with the I and F Funds. Plugging your allocation in Quicken's Allocation modeling results in an expected Annual Return of 5% with an expected risk of 8%. That is kinda unbalanced, but... The 'C Fund' will probably hold up the best regardless of who wins on Tuesday, but your allocation will probably zero out as well. Right now you are the point guard and you got three funds running all over the place and one fund talking to a referee in the back court. Not a good place to be, but sitting with the ball in your hand and not turning it over may end up being the winning play.
In the end I would not waste a golden IFT to go talk to a babbling coach who is staring at the cheerleaders right now. You don't have the time to make a meaningful change and you don't have a signal to make a change.
I used to play competitively in basketball. Folks had to be coached to 'sit' in an area rather than running around trying to make plays to get open during a half court offense. Players had to be coached to sit or move to predictable spots. You have to know where you are at and your team has to know where you are going.
Your current allocation is a bit odd. You have lots of risk in the 'S Fund', but are balancing it a bit with the I and F Funds. Plugging your allocation in Quicken's Allocation modeling results in an expected Annual Return of 5% with an expected risk of 8%. That is kinda unbalanced, but... The 'C Fund' will probably hold up the best regardless of who wins on Tuesday, but your allocation will probably zero out as well. Right now you are the point guard and you got three funds running all over the place and one fund talking to a referee in the back court. Not a good place to be, but sitting with the ball in your hand and not turning it over may end up being the winning play.
In the end I would not waste a golden IFT to go talk to a babbling coach who is staring at the cheerleaders right now. You don't have the time to make a meaningful change and you don't have a signal to make a change.
Cactus
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 38
Greetings 99percent! Glad you could join the rest of us 99 percenters on the message board. 
As for the election, I suspect we will see some increased volatility with the market swinging both ways for a while trying to fake us out. I think volatility will only get worse in December as we approach the so called Fiscal Cliff. :worried:
The thing to do is to come up with some kind of system (your own or someone else's) and stick with it. You don't want to rely on your emotions; they will let you down. The market is designed to use your emotions against you. It will grab you, eat you up and spit you out if you let it.
As for the election, I suspect we will see some increased volatility with the market swinging both ways for a while trying to fake us out. I think volatility will only get worse in December as we approach the so called Fiscal Cliff. :worried:
The thing to do is to come up with some kind of system (your own or someone else's) and stick with it. You don't want to rely on your emotions; they will let you down. The market is designed to use your emotions against you. It will grab you, eat you up and spit you out if you let it.
Handballer
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 12
I don't c it.
99percent
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 5
Thanks to all the knowledge and different perspectives on this board I finally feel like I'm in control of my investing. I learned so much since joining this board I swear TSP oughta make it required reading.
I'm to the the point where I can give a little humble advice. I've got a chip, a chair, and a chance. Thanks to many ... JTH, Boghie, Birchtree, MJR, RMI, clester, handballer, amoeba....
Not trying to be too precious here....
Just keep bringin' it people!
I'm to the the point where I can give a little humble advice. I've got a chip, a chair, and a chance. Thanks to many ... JTH, Boghie, Birchtree, MJR, RMI, clester, handballer, amoeba....
Not trying to be too precious here....
Just keep bringin' it people!
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 978
Thanks to all the knowledge and different perspectives on this board I finally feel like I'm in control of my investing. I learned so much since joining this board I swear TSP oughta make it required reading.
I'm to the the point where I can give a little humble advice. I've got a chip, a chair, and a chance. Thanks to many ... JTH, Boghie, Birchtree, MJR, RMI, clester, handballer, amoeba....
Not trying to be too precious here....
Thanks, glad we could help, even more glad to see folks helping themselves
