-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
20% Off Annual Premium Subscriptions!*
Ends Jan 18... Click Here For More Information
* For new or current subscribers -
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
99percent's account talk.
- Thread starter 99percent
- Start date
Sensei
Well-known member
I imagine you're referring to the sell signal from the Sentiment Survey that Tom devised for this site. It is a system with good returns historically, but missed the mark last year and is currently lagging the stock funds this year. But it's definitely worth factoring into your decisions. Also check out the Last Month Best Fund thread for another idea of what to do while learning.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/longer-te...ths-best-fund-method-strategy.html#post380732
If you do decide to follow the Sentiment Survey, realize that when it makes IFTs (interfund transfers - a move from one fund to another), it does so COB on Friday. If you make an IFT now, it won't go into effect until COB Monday. Welcome, and good luck!
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/longer-te...ths-best-fund-method-strategy.html#post380732
If you do decide to follow the Sentiment Survey, realize that when it makes IFTs (interfund transfers - a move from one fund to another), it does so COB on Friday. If you make an IFT now, it won't go into effect until COB Monday. Welcome, and good luck!
Boghie
Well-known member
I would recommend sitting...
I used to play competitively in basketball. Folks had to be coached to 'sit' in an area rather than running around trying to make plays to get open during a half court offense. Players had to be coached to sit or move to predictable spots. You have to know where you are at and your team has to know where you are going.
Your current allocation is a bit odd. You have lots of risk in the 'S Fund', but are balancing it a bit with the I and F Funds. Plugging your allocation in Quicken's Allocation modeling results in an expected Annual Return of 5% with an expected risk of 8%. That is kinda unbalanced, but... The 'C Fund' will probably hold up the best regardless of who wins on Tuesday, but your allocation will probably zero out as well. Right now you are the point guard and you got three funds running all over the place and one fund talking to a referee in the back court. Not a good place to be, but sitting with the ball in your hand and not turning it over may end up being the winning play.
In the end I would not waste a golden IFT to go talk to a babbling coach who is staring at the cheerleaders right now. You don't have the time to make a meaningful change and you don't have a signal to make a change.
I used to play competitively in basketball. Folks had to be coached to 'sit' in an area rather than running around trying to make plays to get open during a half court offense. Players had to be coached to sit or move to predictable spots. You have to know where you are at and your team has to know where you are going.
Your current allocation is a bit odd. You have lots of risk in the 'S Fund', but are balancing it a bit with the I and F Funds. Plugging your allocation in Quicken's Allocation modeling results in an expected Annual Return of 5% with an expected risk of 8%. That is kinda unbalanced, but... The 'C Fund' will probably hold up the best regardless of who wins on Tuesday, but your allocation will probably zero out as well. Right now you are the point guard and you got three funds running all over the place and one fund talking to a referee in the back court. Not a good place to be, but sitting with the ball in your hand and not turning it over may end up being the winning play.
In the end I would not waste a golden IFT to go talk to a babbling coach who is staring at the cheerleaders right now. You don't have the time to make a meaningful change and you don't have a signal to make a change.
Cactus
Well-known member
Greetings 99percent! Glad you could join the rest of us 99 percenters on the message board. 
As for the election, I suspect we will see some increased volatility with the market swinging both ways for a while trying to fake us out. I think volatility will only get worse in December as we approach the so called Fiscal Cliff. :worried:
The thing to do is to come up with some kind of system (your own or someone else's) and stick with it. You don't want to rely on your emotions; they will let you down. The market is designed to use your emotions against you. It will grab you, eat you up and spit you out if you let it.
As for the election, I suspect we will see some increased volatility with the market swinging both ways for a while trying to fake us out. I think volatility will only get worse in December as we approach the so called Fiscal Cliff. :worried:
The thing to do is to come up with some kind of system (your own or someone else's) and stick with it. You don't want to rely on your emotions; they will let you down. The market is designed to use your emotions against you. It will grab you, eat you up and spit you out if you let it.
Handballer
Active member
I don't c it.
99percent
Member
Thanks to all the knowledge and different perspectives on this board I finally feel like I'm in control of my investing. I learned so much since joining this board I swear TSP oughta make it required reading.
I'm to the the point where I can give a little humble advice. I've got a chip, a chair, and a chance. Thanks to many ... JTH, Boghie, Birchtree, MJR, RMI, clester, handballer, amoeba....
Not trying to be too precious here....
Just keep bringin' it people!
I'm to the the point where I can give a little humble advice. I've got a chip, a chair, and a chance. Thanks to many ... JTH, Boghie, Birchtree, MJR, RMI, clester, handballer, amoeba....
Not trying to be too precious here....
Just keep bringin' it people!
JTH
Well-known member
Thanks to all the knowledge and different perspectives on this board I finally feel like I'm in control of my investing. I learned so much since joining this board I swear TSP oughta make it required reading.
I'm to the the point where I can give a little humble advice. I've got a chip, a chair, and a chance. Thanks to many ... JTH, Boghie, Birchtree, MJR, RMI, clester, handballer, amoeba....
Not trying to be too precious here....
Thanks, glad we could help, even more glad to see folks helping themselves
