04/02/13
Stocks dropped yesterday but finished off of their lows as the Dow, down about 50-points in early trading, ended the day down just 5, but the broader indices didn't do quite as well.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 158"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.44%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.47%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Yesterday was the 8th consecutive day of back and forth, up / down action in the S&P 500. If this pattern, which started on March 19, continues - we would see a positive day in the S&P 500 today (Tuesday). Sounds silly to hang our hats on something like this, but a trend is a trend.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The PMO indicator fell back to a sell signal yesterday, and while this isn't something I follow religiously, I continue to mention it because of the prior similar situation sell signals we saw in 2012 that led to corrections.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The interesting part of this year's strong rally is the mixed signals investors are giving it, including our TSP Talk Survey results, which shows our readers have not become as bullish as you might see in a bull market like this. I wondered if we have become a smart money indicator, but I doubt that. There are very few sentiment indicators that are considered smart, and our survey system, which goes against our reader's overall sentiment, is up 7.55% this year.
Here is another example of investors not embracing the rally from sentimenTrader.com:
"The table below shows the few times in history that the S&P 500 had closed at a one-year high, but individuals' allocation to the stock market was within a percentage point of a one-year low. It may not be apathy, but it sure is a lack of excitement.
"We can't read much of anything into the results given the few precedents, but stocks did quite well going forward. The S&P 500 managed a positive return across every time frame from one month to two years later. Its average return, however, was in line with a random return during the study period, and was certainly not statistically significant.
"This is probably more of a curiosity than an actionable data point."
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
I thought I would throw that in today after all of the bearish data I posted on Monday and in the Weekly Wrap-Up.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks dropped yesterday but finished off of their lows as the Dow, down about 50-points in early trading, ended the day down just 5, but the broader indices didn't do quite as well.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 158"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.44%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.47%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Yesterday was the 8th consecutive day of back and forth, up / down action in the S&P 500. If this pattern, which started on March 19, continues - we would see a positive day in the S&P 500 today (Tuesday). Sounds silly to hang our hats on something like this, but a trend is a trend.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The PMO indicator fell back to a sell signal yesterday, and while this isn't something I follow religiously, I continue to mention it because of the prior similar situation sell signals we saw in 2012 that led to corrections.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The interesting part of this year's strong rally is the mixed signals investors are giving it, including our TSP Talk Survey results, which shows our readers have not become as bullish as you might see in a bull market like this. I wondered if we have become a smart money indicator, but I doubt that. There are very few sentiment indicators that are considered smart, and our survey system, which goes against our reader's overall sentiment, is up 7.55% this year.
Here is another example of investors not embracing the rally from sentimenTrader.com:
"The table below shows the few times in history that the S&P 500 had closed at a one-year high, but individuals' allocation to the stock market was within a percentage point of a one-year low. It may not be apathy, but it sure is a lack of excitement.
"We can't read much of anything into the results given the few precedents, but stocks did quite well going forward. The S&P 500 managed a positive return across every time frame from one month to two years later. Its average return, however, was in line with a random return during the study period, and was certainly not statistically significant.
"This is probably more of a curiosity than an actionable data point."
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
I thought I would throw that in today after all of the bearish data I posted on Monday and in the Weekly Wrap-Up.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
