3/22/04 - When Is It OK to Get Back In?

[tsptalk]

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I'm getting a lot of emails about whether to get back in. My thought (this hour) is I'm going to be patient. I'm not so worried right now about catching the bottom, although that would be nice,but rather not catchinga capitulation sell off, the give up point of the bulls. Ideally that would be the time to buy but it might not come wrapped in bows like I'd like to see.

One thing I will point out that I've talked about before, bottoms are more likely to form when markets open to the downside, then rebound. I'd expect some sort of bounce today at some point, but I'm interested in how we close. Willit sell off or sustain a rebound?

Watching and waiting.
Tom

 

[tsptalk]

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Hello? Where iseverybodytoday? :shock:

 

[Wheels]

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I'm here but I'm crying too much to post!!


Dave


P.S. If Ihear the word geopolitical one more time today I'm going to puke!

 

[k2ds]

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Boy am I glad I went Gas of Friday.. Dodged this bullet. OUCH !!

I think I'm going to take a wait position for now.

May jump back in on the S on Wed.

 

[tsptalk]

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Wheels -
I don't want to hit a man when he's down, cause I've been theremany times myself, but crying and puking in the same post? That may be the buy signal I've been waiting for.

We're getting close.

 

[tsptalk]

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If you are looking for potential downside targets, the 200 day ema (exponential moving average) may bethe next level of support. The 200 day ema for the:

S&P 500 is 1062 (as I write this, today's low is 1089)

Nasdaq is 1883 (low today so far 1897)

As k2ds says, Wednesday might be the day.

 

[puertorico]

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put me in too,wed.may be a good shot...

 

[JerBer]

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Does everybody mean make the move onTuesday for Wednesday, or make it on Wednesday for Thursday? :?

JerBer

 

[tsptalk]

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I'm still playing it by ear JerBer. No commitment either way yet. We are ceratainly due for some sort of rebound but like I said earlier, I'd like to see those 200 day moving averages tested. There are still other concerns that I will try to write about in tomorrow's comments.

Tom

 

[Wheels]

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Tom - I swear if you use the term geopolitical in your update tomorrow I'm gonna come unglued.

Dave

 

[puertorico]

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I can't wait to put money to work !:shock:!

...but,I dont has a good chin to take the pain...

 

[lovegardening]

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Tom, I am so glad I stumbled upon this website yesterday.......I have been searching for someplace, someone.......guidance on TSP fund allocations. Not being very savy with financial terms and where to put funds when....you are a godsend and saved me alot of money yesterday. Thank you for helping us with our TSP.........I will be religiously posted here twice a day during the week. Cant on weekends....no computer at home......

 

[tsptalk]

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Welcome lovegardening!

 

[AllexBancs]

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Tom, I love the term geopolitical. Heard it on the news alot lately and also here. Keep up the great work. AB.

 

[tsptalk]

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Funny,I heardit for the first time this morning on CNBC. I usually watch CNNfn.

A good way to watch these cheerleaders (Maria Bartiroma sp?) is with the sound off!

 

[a3xm]

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I got out of the C fund and into the G fundsome months after 9/11. I have almost recouped myloss at this point. I consider it a paper loss because after many years of being 100 % invested in the C fund, my total investment is still pretty far ahead of the actual money I put in. However, I am fearful of ever going back to the C fund because of the terrorist threat. It is my feeling that "normal" market conditions are not in play for me (retired) for the forseeable future because of the terrorist threat. I believe that there will be another terrorist strike, which could be at anytime, and when it happens the market will tumble drastically, and will take years to recover. I am retired, and don't have years to recover. I can't buy any more shares at lower prices and then let time ride. If the terrorist hit economic targets instead of political targets, the result on the market will be far worse. For example, if they could somehow knock out a couple or petroleum refineries, our country is about 2 weeks away from a drastic economic collapse. Perhaps I am over worried about this, but this my feeling.

 

[tsptalk]

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Welcome a3xm -

I agree as a retireeyou should be much more conservative. But I believegiving up on the U.S. economy because of the potential, moreoverlikelihood of another attack of some sort is wrong thinking. On 9/11, we were in the middle of a bearmarket and an economicslow down (recession). The S&P 500 had already dropped 30% before 9/11 and the Nasdaq 67% (yes!). Certainly the attacks had an affect on our economy, but we are still themost powerful economic country in the world. Youcan't letthese guys run your financial future. I believe any new attack will only be a temporary set back for the market.

Of course that is why we are given choices in the TSP and getting a guaranteed 4% when you are retired might be best for you.

Just my opinion. Glad to have you a3xm.

Tom

 

[eukrate]

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F fund is still doing well. Check out the last few months..
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=agg&time=&freq=
I'm 50% in F now

 

[tsptalk]

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Bondslooking pretty weak today.