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TSPers,
We broke the 200 day moving average on the "rumour" rally of the gang buster job report on Thursday that was coming outFriday morning. Where do you think the market is heading from here? Right now we are sitting on the 200 day moving average. This is a key level for momentum investors. If we break the 200 day moving average by 1% then the momentum players come andbuy...if we break the moving average by 2% then the momentum players sell. My bet is the Bush bounce will push us higher near term. I will go to G fund the first signs off a top. If you look at the tops you can see higher highs and lower low on the dips. This is bear market action. If there is a bounce I am going to sell into that RNC rally. If the big guys come on on Tuesday and volume picks up on the down side...I am going to take my wounds and go to G Fund and heal up and not lose a limb by the "I will wait for it to come back" attitude that burns you. Take this chart and look at 2000 and you will see the same lower high, lower low action that started about this time back then. Jan 01 the IRA/ROTH money hit the markets and then the dam burst. Remember bear markets are not over in four years. Bull runs in bear markets last about 10 months. This is a bear market. But I feel we will rally from here a bit but we are in a topping process because if you look at the right side markets when markets go up in such a steep climb we get a steep retraction. Just look at April of this year. MT
TSPers,
We broke the 200 day moving average on the "rumour" rally of the gang buster job report on Thursday that was coming outFriday morning. Where do you think the market is heading from here? Right now we are sitting on the 200 day moving average. This is a key level for momentum investors. If we break the 200 day moving average by 1% then the momentum players come andbuy...if we break the moving average by 2% then the momentum players sell. My bet is the Bush bounce will push us higher near term. I will go to G fund the first signs off a top. If you look at the tops you can see higher highs and lower low on the dips. This is bear market action. If there is a bounce I am going to sell into that RNC rally. If the big guys come on on Tuesday and volume picks up on the down side...I am going to take my wounds and go to G Fund and heal up and not lose a limb by the "I will wait for it to come back" attitude that burns you. Take this chart and look at 2000 and you will see the same lower high, lower low action that started about this time back then. Jan 01 the IRA/ROTH money hit the markets and then the dam burst. Remember bear markets are not over in four years. Bull runs in bear markets last about 10 months. This is a bear market. But I feel we will rally from here a bit but we are in a topping process because if you look at the right side markets when markets go up in such a steep climb we get a steep retraction. Just look at April of this year. MT
