sillbeer
Member
Hey all,
Just something I was considering and looking for feedback or ways to improve on. I printed off all the yearly charts from TSP.gov showing the monthly returns from 2001 through 2016 from this link.
https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/FundPerformance/monthlyReturns.html
I counted how many times the S fund had positive returns for every month each year. I excluded each month that had less than 10 years of positive returns and came up with the following.
Jan 7
Feb 9
Mar 13
Apr 10
May 11
Jun 8
Jul 6
Aug 10
Sep 9
Oct 11
Nov 13
Dec 12
I added up every year, both positive and negative, and came up with an average of August months being in the negative so I excluded that month. That leaves Mar, Apr, May, Oct, Nov, & Dec. Below is the yearly returns if invested in the S fund for those 6 months.
2001 21.06%
2002 9.2%
2003 32.44%
2004 10.92%
2005 3.23%
2006 8.46%
2007 4.78%
2008 -18.69%
2009 32.52%
2010 19.56%
2011 17.27%
2012 -2.41%
2013 16.42%
2014 4.79%
2015 5.03%
2016 17.68%
Best year is 2009 at 32.52% with 2003 a close second at 32.44%. The worst year was 2008 at -18.69 and the only other year in the red was 2012 with -2.41%. With all the years added up I came out with an average of 11.39% return each year. I only did this for the S fund and figured I would invest in G fund the other 6 months each year. I haven't ran the numbers for C or I fund but may in the future.
So in conclusion, I'm debating investing in G and S funds as follows.
Jan G
Feb G
Mar S
Apr S
May S
Jun G
Jul G
Aug G
Sep G
Oct S
Nov S
Dec S
Thoughts?
Just something I was considering and looking for feedback or ways to improve on. I printed off all the yearly charts from TSP.gov showing the monthly returns from 2001 through 2016 from this link.
https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/FundPerformance/monthlyReturns.html
I counted how many times the S fund had positive returns for every month each year. I excluded each month that had less than 10 years of positive returns and came up with the following.
Jan 7
Feb 9
Mar 13
Apr 10
May 11
Jun 8
Jul 6
Aug 10
Sep 9
Oct 11
Nov 13
Dec 12
I added up every year, both positive and negative, and came up with an average of August months being in the negative so I excluded that month. That leaves Mar, Apr, May, Oct, Nov, & Dec. Below is the yearly returns if invested in the S fund for those 6 months.
2001 21.06%
2002 9.2%
2003 32.44%
2004 10.92%
2005 3.23%
2006 8.46%
2007 4.78%
2008 -18.69%
2009 32.52%
2010 19.56%
2011 17.27%
2012 -2.41%
2013 16.42%
2014 4.79%
2015 5.03%
2016 17.68%
Best year is 2009 at 32.52% with 2003 a close second at 32.44%. The worst year was 2008 at -18.69 and the only other year in the red was 2012 with -2.41%. With all the years added up I came out with an average of 11.39% return each year. I only did this for the S fund and figured I would invest in G fund the other 6 months each year. I haven't ran the numbers for C or I fund but may in the future.
So in conclusion, I'm debating investing in G and S funds as follows.
Jan G
Feb G
Mar S
Apr S
May S
Jun G
Jul G
Aug G
Sep G
Oct S
Nov S
Dec S
Thoughts?
